标题: UK’s Risky Obsession With US Decline: FT (II) [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 4-11-2015 11:30 标题: UK’s Risky Obsession With US Decline: FT (II) 本帖最后由 choi 于 4-11-2015 12:53 编辑
(a) "到一战爆发时，根据国内生产总值(GDP)衡量，英国仅在大国中名列第四."
Maddison Historical GDP Data. World Economics, undated (in Microsoft Excel format) www.worldeconomics.com/Data/Madi ... al%20GDP%20Data.efp
("Downloadable Data: Europe: * * * Population-GDP-GDP Per capita All Euporean data since 1820 (227kb)")
In 1913:
......................Population (000 at mid-year)......GDP ............GDP per capita
Austria ...........6,767........................................23,451 ........3,465
France ...........41,463.....................................144,489 ........3,485
Germany .......65,058......................................237,332 ........3,648
Netherlands .....6,164.......................................24,955 ........4,049
UK ................45,649......................................224,618 ........4,921
Ireland ............4,346 ......................................11,891 ........2,736
Poland ...........26,710 ......................................46,449 ........1,739
USSR ...........156,192 ....................................232,351 ........1,488
In “Maddison Historical GDP Data”:
(i) Both “GDP” and “GDP per capita” use "1990 Int. GK$." However, “million” (as in “millions of 1990 International Dollars” that appears in Wikipedia listed in (e)(i)(B) above) is missing in the “GDP” portion.
(ii) For "1990 Int. GK$," see Geary–Khamis dollar
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geary–Khamis_dollar
, which is of course is PPP, by definition.
(iii) Maddison obviously used the national boundaries when USSR was (or had been) a nation. Bear in mind, however, that in 1913 UK included Ireland (a 1921 treaty ratifying Ireland independence), German Empire contained Poland (reconstitution of Poland in 1918) and USSR was not created until October 1917 revolution.
(iv) For Nye to say, "到一战爆发时，根据国内生产总值(GDP)衡量，英国仅在大国中名列第四," he overlooked the REAL No 2 China.
(b) Return to "约瑟夫•奈(Joseph Nye)指出：’到一战爆发时，根据国内生产总值(GDP)衡量，英国仅在大国中名列第四……在军事开支方面名列第三。’ ” (ellipsis original) Here is the bibliography.
(i) Joseph S Nye Jr, The Future of American Power; Dominance and decline in perspective. Foreign Affairs, November/December 2010 www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ ... e-of-american-power
("The twenty-first century began with a very unequal distribution of power resources. With five percent of the world's population, the United States accounted for about a quarter of the world's economic output, was responsible for nearly half of global military expenditures * * * the United Kingdom in the nineteenth century derived power from its primacy in the Industrial Revolution and its navy. * * * The analogy with British decline is misleading. The United Kingdom had naval supremacy and an empire on which the sun never set, but by World War I, the country ranked only fourth among the great powers in its share of military personnel, fourth in GDP, and third in military spending. With the rise of nationalism [in colonies], protecting the empire became more of a burden than an asset. For all the talk of an American empire, the United States has more freedom of action than the United Kingdom did. And whereas the United Kingdom faced rising neighbors, Germany and Russia, the United States benefits from being surrounded by two oceans and weaker neighbors")
(ii) Joseph S Nye Jr, Is the American Century Over? Wiley, January 2015, pages not numbered
books.google.com/books?id=eicABwAAQBAJ&pg=PT14&lpg=PT14&dq=Joseph+Nye+"world+war+i"+gdp+fourth+"united+kingdom&source=bl&ots=JxKbsgwEwH&sig=XYkLTc3VuKe-4vPq9Te3fGI5bQg&hl=en&sa=X&ei=NWspVdq2PJLIsQSm1ICIAg&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=Joseph%20Nye%20%22world%20war%20i%22%20gdp%20fourth%20%22united%20kingdom&f=false
("By the time of World War I, Britain ranked only fourth among the great powers in its share of military personnel, fourth in GDP, and third in military spending. The costs of [Britain's] defense averaged 2.5 to 3.4 percent of GDP and the empire was ruled in large part through local troops. Of the 8.6 million British forces in World War I, nearly a third came from the overseas empire. But with therise of nationalism, it became increasingly difficult for London to declare war on behalf of the empire, and by the time of World War II, protecting the empire became more of a burden than an asset. For all the loose talk of American empire, the United States has more degrees of freedom of action than Britain had. And while the United Kingdom faced powerful neighbors, Germany and Russia, the United States benefits from two oceans and weaker neighbors")