标题: For 2016 TW's GDP Growth Rate 2% but Chance for Recession High: Bloomberg [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 1-11-2016 16:18 标题: For 2016 TW's GDP Growth Rate 2% but Chance for Recession High: Bloomberg Andre Tartar, A Catarina Saraiva and Cynthia Li, Meet 2016's Worst Economic Performers; Venezuela will contract the most while Taiwan faces a heightened risk of recession. Bloomberg Benchmark, Jan 10, 2016. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/ar ... rting-with-disaster
My comment: The report forecasts Taiwan
(a) not among the bottom 10 economic performers;
(b) but that it’s chance of being in recession (defined as two consecutive GDP growth rates in minus territory) is more likely than not.
(i) The report explains this way: "The Recession Club[:] The club no one wants to join has some surprises. Among the nations with a 50-50 chance of two quarters of contraction is Taiwan. Its annual growth rate slow dramatically from 4 percent in the first quarter of 2015 to minus 0.6 percent in the third quarter due to a slowdown in exports to China.
(ii) Liberty Times pounces on the report to engage in partisan attack.
編譯楊芙宜、記者鄭琪芳, 經濟傾中嚐惡果… 彭博預測 台灣恐進衰退俱樂部. Liberty Times, Jan 12, 2016.
news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/948405
There is no need to read the Liberty Times report.
(c) President Ma Ying-jeou’s term ended on May 20, 2016. So 2% is likely to be Taiwan’s GDP growth rate for 2016. Bloomberg foretells recession for Taiwan, solely on the strength of the trend, as shown in graphic 2. In view of 2% growth rate, the recession, if it does happen, in Taiwan, would be mild -- as mild as those in Japan during the past two decades.