标题: Per Capita GDP (Nominal) of Taiwan, Korea and Japan [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 2-12-2022 12:15 标题: Per Capita GDP (Nominal) of Taiwan, Korea and Japan 本帖最后由 choi 于 2-12-2022 12:36 编辑
(1) 富山 篤 (主査), 高野 哲彰, 髙橋 えり子, 佐倉 環, 丸山 大介, 上原 正詩 and 山田 剛, 2033年、中国が世界最大の経済大国に; １人当たりGDP、2027年に日韓逆転. 日本経済研究センター, Dec 15, 2021 (under the heading "アジア経済中期予測 （第7回/2021-2035年)" ). https://www.jcer.or.jp/economic-forecast/20211215-2.html
Note:
(a) Pronounced shusa (Chinese pronunciations for both kanji), 主査 means principal investigator.
(b) 日本経済研究センター Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Nikkei 日経 (formerly Nihon Keizai Shimbun).
(c) The only part of the report available to the public is (アジア経済中期予測 第７回報告書) 要旨 (pronounced yōshi): https://www.jcer.or.jp/jcer_down ... ;file_post_id=86262
, whose summaries included
• 中国の GDP は 2033 年に初めて米国を上回る。前回予測から４～５年後ずれ
• 日本の 1 人当たり GDP を 2027 年に韓国、2028 年に台湾が抜く
(i) Pronounced zure, ずれ is a noun for fap, lag, difference. Kanji 後 here has Japanese pronunciation nochi.
(ii) translation for the above summaries:
China's GDP [nominal 名目, not PPP] first surpass America's in 2033, pushed back for 4 to 5 years from our previous report.
Per capita [nominal] GDP of Japan to be overtaken by S Korea in 2027, and by Taiwan in 2028 作者: choi 时间: 2-12-2022 12:15 本帖最后由 choi 于 2-24-2022 09:48 编辑
(2) In the wake of the above report is a c0mmentary by a S Korean newspaper in its global edition in Japanese (language):
Note:
(a) Korea Economic Daily (KED) 韓國經濟新聞 (韓經 Hankyung) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea_Economic_Daily
(b) Kedglobal.com does not render this commentary in English or Chinese -- the other two foreign languages that Kedglobal.com also published in.
(c) Japanese-English dictionary:
* koramu コラム (n): "column (in a newspaper)"
* kiji 記事 (n): "news report"
* hamon o yobu 波紋を呼ぶ 【はもんをよぶ】 (phrase): "to cause a stir"
* da-i-sotsu-sha 大卒者 【だいそつしゃ】 (n): "([same as] 大卒) university graduate"
* chingin 賃金 【ちんぎん】 (n): "wages"
* guchi 愚痴 【ぐち】 (n): "complaint"
* susamaji 凄まじい 【すさまじい】 (n): "terrible, dreadful, awful"
(d) my translation:
Recently interesting news reports appeared from Japan and Taiwan. JCER's Dec 16 report caused a stir, which predicted that in 2028, Taiwan's [nominal] per capita GDP would be ahead of Japan's. Already Singapore in 2007 and Hong Kong in 2014 accomplished that. In 6 to 7 years Japan will be a second-rated nation.
The day before this report, IMF released a study that caught the eyes: Taiwan's [nominal] per capita GDP would exceed [S] Korea's next year [2022], moved ahead from the earlier prediction of 2025. * * * In the past ten years, Taiwan's economy improved in various fronts, semiconductor exports in good shape, currency exchange rate up -- these are the three elements/ components 要素. It goes without saying that in Taiwan, there are complaints that despite it (surging per capita GDP [in DOLLAR terms (see next paragraph)], college graduates in Taiwan earn a third of Korea's.
Taiwan's [nominal] per capita GDP overtook Korea's, but saw awful economic growth rate in the second half of 2010 [Ma Ying-jeou was present 2008-2016, 2010 growth rate was 10.2%, rebounded from -1.6% in 2009 and 0.8% in 2008 (see (e) ); maybe the Korea columnist made a mistake]. From 2015 to 2020 the average GDP growth rate was 4.46% -- twice as much as Korea's 1.85%. Ditto per capita GDP: Last year Taiwan had $29,202, Korea $31,881. Once upon a time, the two had a gap of more than $10,000 ]Taiwan was behind], which shrank to $5,600 in 2019 and $2,600 last year [2020]. This year, Taiwan observes 6%, higher than China's. Taiwan dollars has appreciated from 36 won [Korea currency] in the year before Corona disaster [ie, 2019] to 43 won at present. * * * Next year Korea's GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.0%, compared with 台湾 中央研究院's forecast 3.85%/ The day Taiwan becomes ahead of Jorea is not far away.
* * * As for the [total nominal] GDP, Korea's is 2.5 times Taiwan's, and Japan's 3 times Korea's. On the other hand, per capital GDP (PPP) is Taiwan> Korea > Japan. * * *
(e) Economic Growth Rate (yoy [year-on-tear, as opposed to America's season-on-season]) (%). Statistics Bureau, Taiwan, undated. https://eng.stat.gov.tw/point.asp?index=1
(f) Maybe because the Trump administration's ever-present threats to put Taiwan in the list of currency manipulators (in my view, Taiwan deserves the label), Taiwan dollar has appreciated from 30.9 for $1 in 2019 (which helps a lot in pushing nominal GDP high – both total and per capita). See
Taiwan Dollars to US Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (AEXTAUS). FRED (short for Federal Reserve Economic Data, compiled by St Louis Fed) Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, undated. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AEXTAUS
I learn from this figure that Taiwan dollar also went through sharp appreciation -- like Japanese yen -- but came out unscathed (unlike Japan). Taiwan is resilient.