(1) 斯洋, 专访罗伯特·卡根：以史为鉴，中国挑战美国, 将是 '历史错误.' VOA Chinese, Mar 4, 2023 https://www.voachinese.com/a/kag ... 230303/6988301.html
("罗伯特·卡根（Robert Kagan) * * * 近日在《华尔街日报》撰文警告中国，'挑战美国会是一个历史错误。' * * * 卡根也是美国新保守主义 [neoconservative] 的代表人物。新保守主义者提倡国际事务中的干涉主义，以维护美国领导的自由主义世界秩序。 * * * 卡根1984年至1988年在美国国务院任职。 * * * 你说美国的敌人们通常会低估美国并为此付出代价。但也有美国学者，包括斯坦福大学胡佛研究所高级研究员尼尔·弗格森（Niall Ferguson）认为，即便美国有意愿防卫台湾，可能也没有能力。弗格森最近在彭博新闻社撰稿说，如果美中因为台湾发生大的冲突，你会发现美国的军工不是 '睡着了的巨人，而是年迈的昏迷病人 ['a comatose geriatric, not a sleeping giant']。' 他特别提到了你的文章，认为现在的情况下，挑战美国非但不是 '历史错误 [Historic Mistake (first letter of the two words are capitalized, because they, words, are part of article title]，' 还可能是个 '历史机会 [Historic Opportunity]' ")
Note:
(a) Robert Kagan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Kagan
("From 1984 to 1986, under the administration of Ronald Reagan, he was a speechwriter for Secretary of State George P Shultz and a member of the United States Department of State Policy Planning Staff. From 1986 to 1988, he served in the State Department Bureau of Inter-American Affairs"
favored invasion of Iraq.
(b) His WSJ article appeared in my Feb 13, 2023 posting titled "Challenging the US Is a Historic Mistake."作者: choi 时间: 3-4-2023 12:04 本帖最后由 choi 于 3-4-2023 12:48 编辑
Note:
(a) "I had chosen the only French dentist in the phone directory, as the movie Marathon Man had put me off German ones. * * * Kagan based his argument on some shaky estimates of the combined gross domestic product of the Allied and Axis powers in World War II, arguing that China today is in a weaker position than the Axis powers in 1941. But that is only true if one includes the Soviet Union in the Axis (as the Journal proposed in a subsequent correction), which makes little sense when Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa against the Soviet Union in June of that year. It also seems to imply that Britain, which had fought the war more or less alone [for about four months until Pearl Harbor attack] since the fall of France, did not matter, when its GDP was in fact around the same as the USSR's in 1941 [the last clause is more or less correct]."
(i) Marathon Man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_Man_(film)
(a 1976 American film; "Babe is later abducted from his apartment by the two men in the park, and he is tortured by Szell using dentistry")
(ii) put off https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/put%20off
(iii) Battle of France https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France
(May 10– June 25, 1940; "On September 3, 1939, France declared war on Germany following the German invasion of Poland")
(iv)
(A) Soviet industry in World War II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_industry_in_World_War_II
("As result of the German invasion of World War II, the Economy of the Soviet Union suffered punishing blows, with Soviet GDP falling 34% between 1940 and 1942. Industrial output did not recover to its 1940 level for almost a decade.")
(B) Eugene M Kulischer, The Russian Population Enigma. Foreign Affairs, April 1949 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/a ... n-population-enigma
("The last reliable population figure was that of the census of January 17, 1939, which showed a population of 170,500,000. Since that date, both before and after the war, there have been incorporated into the Soviet Union territories with a prewar population of about 24,000,000 -such as Baltic states]")
(C) Demography of England https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_England
(section 2 Historical Population: table: "1939 [census] 38,084,321")
(b) "The idea that, in the event of a surprise attack in Taiwan, the United States would dust down the World War II playbook is no doubt comforting to some. * ** 'Today,' wrote Kagan, 'the US and its allies and partners (which includes most of Europe, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and others) produce over 50% of the world's wealth, while China and Russia together produce a little over 20%.' But if we know one thing about power today, it is surely that it's not equivalent to GDP. If it were, the war in Ukraine would by now have been won by Russia, which had a pre-war GDP nine times larger. In an essay in Foreign Affairs last year, Michael J Mazarr summarized a recent RAND Corporation study commissioned by the US Defense Department's Office of Net Assessment on the age-old question, 'What Makes a Power Great?'
(i)
(A) dust something off (phrasal verb):
"(UK also dust down) to prepare something for use, especially after it has not been used for a long time
<It's time to dust off the old chemistry books and start studying>
<UK They brought out the old ambulances, dusted them down and put them back into service>" https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/dust-off
(B) The America-based Merriam-Webster.com does not have "dust down," but only dust off. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dust%20off
(ii) Russia "had a pre-war GDP nine times larger" than Ukraine.
The 2021 Archive's "Countries" link was disconnected. Here are the correct URLs for both Ukraine an Russia.
(A) Ukraine https://www.cia.gov/the-world-fa ... 1/countries/ukraine
(Population 43,745,640 (July 2021 est)
GDP (purchasing power parity)
$516.68 billion note: data are in 2017 dollars (2020 est) [The decrease was due to Covid-19.]
$538.33 billion note: data are in 2017 dollars (2019 est)
GDP per capita [PPP]
$12,400 note: data are in 2017 dollars (2020 est)
$12,800 note: data are in 2017 dollars (2019 est)
GDP (official exchange rate)
$155.082 billion (2019 est)" )
(B) Russia https://www.cia.gov/the-world-fa ... 21/countries/russia
(Population 142,320,790 (July 2021 est)
GDP (purchasing power parity)
$3,875,690,000,000 billion note: data are in 2017 dollars (2020 est)
$3,993,550,000,000 billion note: data are in 2017 dollars (2019 est)
GDP per capita [PPP]
$26,500 note: data are in 2017 dollars (2020 est)
$27,200 note: data are in 2017 dollars (2019 est)
GDP (official exchange rate)
$1,702,361,000,000 billion (2019 est)" )
Ferguson referred to nominal GDP (official exchange rate) when he wrote Russia's GDP was nine times that of Ukraine.
In English, "times bigger than" is equal to "times as big as."
(iii) Office of Net Assessment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Net_Assessment
("(ONA) was created in 1973 by Richard Nixon to serve as the Pentagon's 'internal think tank' that 'looks 20 to 30 years into the military's future' ")
(iv)
(A) Michael J Mazarr, What Makes a Power Great; The real drivers of rise and fall. Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2022. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/a ... makes-a-power-great
, which is locked behind paywall.
(B) Michael J Mazarr. Rand Corp, undated https://www.rand.org/about/people/m/mazarr_michael_j.html
("Senior Political Scientist[,] Washington Office
Education[:] PhD in public policy, University of Maryland; MA in security studies, Georgetown University; BA in government, Georgetown University
* * * Previously he worked at the U.S. National War College, where he was professor and associate dean of academics; as president of the Henry L Stimson Center; senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; senior defense aide on Capitol Hill; and as a special assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff")
(c) "But can the same be said of the United States by comparison with China today? Here's the RAND answer [in Mazzar essay]: [']The United States displays * * * is complacent, highly bureaucratized, and seeking short-term gains and rents rather than long-term productive breakthroughs. * * * The relative decline of American manufacturing is the backstory to a major breakdown in defense procurement, which Seth G Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has called the 'Empty Bins Crisis.' As Jones puts it, 'The US defense industrial base is not adequately prepared for the competitive security environment that now exists. * * * In a major regional conflict * * * the US use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the US Department of Defense (DoD), leading to a problem of "empty bins." ' * * * Just as the Covid-19 pandemic exposed the sclerotic state of American public health, so the Russian invasion of Ukraine has laid bare the comparable deterioration of our once mighty military-industrial complex. * * * The time between our ignominious exit from Afghanistan and our decision to arm Ukraine for a protracted war was eight months. * * * In our time, by contrast, we have been shrinking our military-industrial base."
(i) "seeking short-term gains and rents"
The term rent-seeking comes from
Adam Hayes, Economic Rent: Definition, Types, How It Works, and Example. Investopedia. Nov 18, 2021 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economicrent.asp
("Economic rent is an amount of money earned that exceeds that which is economically or socially necessary. * * * • Market inefficiencies or information asymmetries are usually responsible for creating economic rent. • Generally, economic rent is considered unearned. * * * Economic rent should not be confused with normal profit [emphasis is on 'normal' or earned] * * * This term also differs from the traditional use of the word 'rent,' which applies to payments received in exchange for the temporary use of a particular good or property, such as land or housing. * * * Economic rent also explains the high value of exclusive intangible assets, such as patents and permits. Together, these are also known as scarcity rents. * * * A worker may be willing to work for $15 per hour, but because they belong to a union, they receive $18 per hour for the same job. The difference of $3 is the worker's economic rent * * * As another example, the owner of a property in an exclusive shopping mall may be willing to rent it out for $10,000 per month, but a company that is keen to have a retail storefront in the mall may offer $12,000 as monthly rent for the property to secure it and forestall competition. The difference of $2,000, in this case, is the owner's economic rent. * * * Monopoly rent refers to the situation in which a monopoly producer lacks competition and thus can sell its goods and services at a price far above what the otherwise competitive market price would be, at the expense of consumers")
"The term rent, in the narrow sense of economic rent, was coined by the British 19th-century economist David Ricardo." en.wikipedia.org for "rent-seeking".
(ii) Seth G Jones, Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment: The Challenge to the US Defense Industrial Base. CSIS, Jan 23, 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/em ... nse-industrial-base
(iii) The quotation ends with four "ours."
(A) Niall Ferguson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niall_Ferguson
(1964- ; born in Glasgow, Scotland; table: Education Magdalen College, Oxford (BA [history, 1985], DPhil [dissertation title: Business and Politics in the German Inflation: Hamburg 1914–1924; degree in 1989]' 2002 became John Herzog Professor in Financial History at NYU; 2004 became the Laurence A Tisch Professor of History at Harvard; 2016 Ferguson became a senior fellow at Hoover Institution; 2018, Ferguson became naturalised as a US citizen)
(B) Neil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil
(" is an anglicisation of the Irish Niall")
(d) "155 mm ammunition * * * As National Review reported last month, there are similar concerns about the supply of the Navy's SM-6 [SM means Standard Missile] antiaircraft and antiship missiles. US Fleet Forces commander Admiral Daryl Caudle has said * * * According to a report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) last year, the cost of building the new 12-vessel Columbia class of nuclear-armed submarines has risen by $3.4 billion to a projected $112 billion. It is now $132 billion, and there are doubts that the new subs will be available for deployment in 2031. * * * a new generation of tech-driven defense companies are mounting a challenge to the primes — step forward Anduril and Epirus, to name just two. * * * According to a 2021 report from the Department of Energy, 'of the 35 mineral commodities identified as critical … the United States lacks domestic production of 14 and is more than 50% import-reliant for 31.' No doubt great from an ESG perspective. * * * Among the many symptoms of what the Pentagon might call Great Power Rust Syndrome (GPRS)" in Soviet Union.
(i) 155 mm caliber https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/155_mm_caliber
("155 mm (6.1 in) is a NATO-standard artillery caliber that is used in many field guns, howitzers, and gun-howitzers")
(ii)
(A) United States Fleet Forces Command https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Fleet_Forces_Command
("Originally formed as United States Atlantic Fleet (USLANTFLT) in 1906 * * * In 2006 the US Atlantic Fleet was renamed United States Fleet Forces Command"/ table: Part of US Northern Command)
(B) There are eleven unified combatant commands of the United States Department of Defense https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_combatant_command
("is composed of units from two or more service branches of the United States Armed Forces")
that include US Northern Command and US Indo-Pacific Command. The latter has United States Pacific Fleet (the sister of Atlantic Fleet), of which Seventh Fleet is part.
(iii) Columbia-class submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine
(is "designed to replace the [current] Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines in the United States Navy. The first submarine began construction on Oct 1, 2020, and is scheduled to enter service in 2031")
(iv)
(A) Anduril Industries, Inc (2017 ; based in Orange County, Calif; making drones whose softwares are "powered by Lattice OS, an AI-powered, open operating system that brings autonomy to defense's toughest missions")
(B) Anduril https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anduril
("may refer to: Andúril, a fictional sword in JRR Tolkien's Middle-earth fantasy writings, originally known as Narsil")
(v)
(A) LeonidasTM Couner-Electronics. Epirus, undated https://www.epirusinc.com/counter-electronics
(high-power microwave (HPM) )
was debuted in January 2023 ro fry(disable) drone out of sky, and won contract with US Army paid for 66 million.
(B) Epirus (disambiguation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epirus_(disambiguation)
(vi) ESG stands for environmental, social, and corporate governance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental,_social,_and_corporate_governance
("The term ESG was popularly used first in a 2004 report titled 'Who Cares Wins,' which was a joint initiative of financial institutions at the invitation of UN")
My understanding is ESG means being ethical, purchasing from responsible sources (no blood diamonds, for instance), not using child labor, not exploiting labor or farmers, not polluting environment.
(vii) This article is the only one that uses this term, according to Google. Can it be that Pentagon classified this term? Hardly.