标题: Wall Street Journal, Apr 21, 2025 [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 前天 11:21 标题: Wall Street Journal, Apr 21, 2025 (1) Lingling Wei, US, China Brace for Cold War as Tension Heats Up. at page A1.
Note: If one reads only the first five paragraphs, he will get it.
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For decades, no matter how relations between Beijing and Washington waxed and waned, trade and investment provided the glue that kept the two powers together.
Today, with economic relations between the two careening off the rails, China and the U.S. are headed toward what could be a Cold War that extends beyond trade—to deepening conflict or even military tension as both seek to form their own blocs.
The current scenario was once unthinkable. During President Trump’s first presidency, Washington and Beijing were both reluctant to throw their deep entanglements into complete disarray. Their first trade war played out over two years and involved frequent negotiations and fear of escalation on both sides.
This time, the two countries have effectively erected trade embargoes against each other in less than three months and are taking economic warfare into new territory. What is at stake is overall global security as well as economic stability for many years to come.
"The U.S. and China are in a state of economic decoupling and there do not seem to be any guardrails to prevent escalations in trade tensions from spreading to other areas," said Rick Waters, a former senior U.S. diplomat who now runs the China center at the Carnegie Endowment for Global Peace. "It's becoming more difficult to argue that we’re not in a new Cold War."
For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it is an all-hands-on-deck moment that he and his inner circle have been preparing for since Trump’s first term. After the initial shock from the magnitude of Trump’s recent tariff hits, Beijing is now in full-blown retaliatory mode, vowing to “fight to the end.”
And its tools to hit back at the U.S. aren’t limited to economic weapons such as retaliatory tariffs, blacklists targeting U.S. companies and restrictions on its exports of critical minerals.
According to people who consult with Chinese officials, Beijing’s recent statement that it is done with tit-for-tat tariff responses signals that it might be moving to other, noneconomic methods.
Both countries have accused each other of increasingly brazen cyberattacks. One option Beijing has, the people said, involves leveraging the data, call logs and other information it gathered from years of intrusions into computer networks at U.S. ports, water utilities, airports and other targets.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that in a secret Geneva meeting in December with the outgoing Biden administration, Chinese officials linked a series of cyber assaults on U.S. infrastructure to Washington’s support for Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing has pledged to bring under its fold.
Beijing could also step up strategic coercion against partners of the U.S., especially in the Indo-Pacific, at a time when the Trump administration’s commitment to providing security in the region appears to be in doubt.
Alarms about the security threat from China, which had been rising within the U.S. political and military establishment even before the latest cycle of tit-for-tat tariff increases, have ramped up further.
At an April 10 Senate hearing, Adm. Sam Paparo, head of U.S. forces for the Indo-Pacific, called attention to China’s increased military activities near Taiwan, which he said threatened the security of the U.S. and its allies.
On the U.S. side, Trump has signaled he is willing to withdraw security guarantees for countries depending on American support unless they make economic concessions.
Behind the heightened risk of escalation beyond trade is a lack of effective communication between senior officials on both sides of the Pacific. Initially, Beijing hoped for dialogue but its insistence on formal diplomatic protocol proved to be a mismatch with a Trump team willing to engage only with those closest to Xi, in particular the Chinese leader’s chief of staff, Cai Qi, whose portfolio includes cybersecurity—a core concern for Washington.
In the face of Trump’s tariff assault, Beijing has clammed up. Most recently, as trade tensions spiral, Trump himself has indicated that he would like Xi to call him. Trump officials have also suggested to Chinese diplomats that Foreign Minister Wang Yi reach out to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to people familiar with the matter. So far, Beijing has refused to engage on either front.
Instead, in search of ways that can minimize political costs for the Xi leadership, policy advisers in Beijing are floating names including former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, as potential intermediaries with Trump, the people said. But those discussions haven’t gone far enough in either capital, as neither side appears to be in a rush to negotiate.
In remarks to reporters Thursday, Trump reiterated that the U.S. will “make a deal” with China. “We’ve had some very good talks,” he said, without elaborating, while adding, “I think we have a lot of time.”
As the communication stalemate continues, both powers are seeking to recruit allies in their battle. The Trump administration is currently seeking to cut deals with dozens of countries to cooperate in isolating China. Meanwhile, Xi and his senior lieutenants have fanned out in recent days, trying to pull trading partners away from the U.S.
In exchange for reductions in tariffs imposed by the U.S., the Trump administration is planning to pressure more than 70 nations to bar China from shipping goods through their countries to the American market, restrict Chinese investments and prevent cheap Chinese products from flooding their markets.
In short, as Trump told the Spanish-language program “Fox Noticias” last week, he may want countries to choose between the U.S. and China.
But building coalitions is unlikely to be easy for either side.
Even though Beijing’s manufacturing overdrive has antagonized many countries big and small, some of them, especially those in Asia that count China as one of their biggest trading partners and sources of investment, are finding it very hard to completely pivot to the U.S.
Xi’s recent tour to Southeast Asia highlights how this region is emerging as a key battleground for Beijing and Washington.
Just over a week before Xi arrived in Hanoi on Monday, Vietnamese leader To Lam agreed with Trump to discuss a deal to remove U.S. tariffs in a call the American president described as “very productive.” Vietnam, also under Communist rule, has sought to improve economic ties with the U.S. in recent years.
The call, just as Xi was getting ready for what was billed as a state visit to Vietnam, displeased Beijing, according to people familiar with the matter.
At the end of Xi’s visit, China and Vietnam made a joint statement promising to deepen their strategic partnership without much detail—suggesting Hanoi isn’t picking one side over the other, leaving its options open.
Another focus for Beijing’s charm offensive is Europe, which has been alarmed by Trump’s handling of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
On Wednesday, China named Li Chenggang, who for the past four years was China’s envoy to the World Trade Organization, as its chief trade negotiator. The appointment signals the Xi leadership’s desire to align with European countries more intent on protecting the global trading norms that Trump says have benefited the rest of the world, China in particular, at the U.S.’s expense.
Li is a harsh U.S. critic. As China’s WTO representative, he called the U.S. a “unilateral bully.”
Meanwhile, with the communication impasse between China and the U.S. continuing, Washington is likely to further restrict Chinese companies’ access to American technology, making it even more difficult to unwind the trend of economic separation that is currently under way.
Ryan Fedasiuk, a former China policy adviser at the State Department and currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, said the Commerce Department may significantly increase its use of export controls by blacklisting subsidiaries of the Chinese companies already on its trade list.
“Blacklisting subsidiaries would drastically increase the number of firms subject to U.S. export controls,” Fedasiuk said, “and accelerate the decoupling unleashed by tariffs.”
If the economic warfare keeps accelerating, foreign policy experts say, both sides may expand their toolboxes to strike back at each other.
"What we're seeing now is the biggest trade war in history," said Yun Sun, Director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank. "The risk of the trade war expanding to other domains is quite high."
作者: choi 时间: 前天 11:22
(2) Ryan Dubé and Silvina Frydlewsky, Argentina's Milei Bucks Trump on Trade; A MAGA superstar, his slash-and-burn approach to tariffs clashes with US. at page A7.
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Few people shine brighter in the MAGA universe after President Trump than Argentine President Javier Milei, who has enamored U.S. conservatives by slashing spending and berating progressives.
But on trade, Trump and Milei are worlds apart. As Trump places tariffs on allies and foes alike, Milei is moving the other way to unravel a protectionist economy and spark an import boom.
Milei has dismantled tariffs and import restrictions in a free-market overhaul designed to tame inflation and transform one of the world’s most closed economies. Since the libertarian economist took office in 2023, Argentina has drawn a surge of imports including German beer, gluten-free Oreos and Chinese-made tractors.
Milei in December eliminated a tax on foreign-currency purchases. He recently removed a requirement for electronics importers to certify their safety. He ended other restrictions for bringing in tires, cement and elevators.
“It’s like we’re a normal country,” said Lino Stefanuto of Beta Motor Argentina, which assembles motorcycles with imported parts.
Imports rose more than 40% in February to nearly $6 billion. Chinese imports more than doubled. Shipments from the U.S., Europe and Brazil rose, too.
A strong peso currency has made it cheaper for Argentines to buy foreign goods. But the import surge has also strained the central bank’s depleted reserves because of an increased demand for dollars from companies bringing in the foreign goods. Factory owners say cheaper imports will hurt local manufacturing jobs.
“It’s impossible to compete with China,” said Daniel Rosato, head of an association of small industrial businesses.
In other areas, Milei has emulated Trump. He has befriended Elon Musk, said he would pull Argentina out of the World Health Organization, made an ill-fated foray into meme coins and restricted medical treatment for transgender children.
But on trade, Argentines say Trump reminds them more of Milei’s nemeses: the left-wing politicians of the Peronist movement—named for the former President Juan Perón—who have long preferred trade barriers.
“It’s very strange to me that Milei is so in favor of Trump,” said Juan Gonzalez, a university student in Buenos Aires who supports Milei’s trade stance. “Trump’s protectionism is more similar to Peronism…and Milei is strongly against Peronist economic policies.”
Milei says opening up Argentina will create more productive companies, which will be less dependent on state subsidies and also can export. And he says cheaper imports would bring down inflation, which has fallen to 56% from more than 200% when he took office.
“The only thing this protection has created is an industrial sector addicted to the state,” Milei told manufacturers last September.
In 1930, Argentina began walling off much of its economy in reaction to the Great Depression. The country became radically protectionist after World War II when Perón sought to substitute imports to create a self-sufficient economy, said Pablo Gerchunoff, an Argentine economic historian.
Milei’s Peronist predecessors this century—Néstor Kirchner, then his wife, Cristina Kirchner, and later Alberto Fernández—doubled down on import restrictions to protect high-paying factory jobs and shield central bank reserves amid dollar shortages.
The result was one of the most restrictive trade regimes in Latin America. In 2023, Argentina’s imports accounted for 14% of its gross domestic product, less than half of neighboring Chile’s, which has one of Latin America’s most open economies.
Argentina has restricted imports with tariffs and onerous rules to certify products including steel, toys and shoes. The state created other costs for importers, such as requiring payment of some income tax in advance. Restrictions on accessing dollars led to a backlog of billions in unpaid bills to suppliers abroad.
Many Argentines say they now see the benefit of more trade. Mendoza province in March struck a deal with India to import medicine for diabetics, slashing costs by about half. Farm exporters say fertilizer costs have fallen 30% thanks to lower tariffs. Argentines can now shop on Amazon.
“Chinese cellphones are the new thing right now,” said Jonathan Hauman, a salesman in Buenos Aires. “They are really good, and cheaper.”
Grocery stores are selling new brands of Italian spaghetti, Brazilian instant coffee, Greek olives and U.S. canned beans. Imported German sauerkraut costs half as much as an Argentine brand.
“If domestic products are more expensive, maybe they should start lowering their prices,” said Mariela Manfredi, whose 9-year-old daughter tried Italian pasta and doesn’t want to go back.
Argentina still has high tariffs on many goods as a member of South America’s Mercosur trade bloc, and it restricts access to dollars. Argentina also taxes agricultural exports.
Milei has played down trade differences with Trump. His administration has framed Trump’s 10% tariff on Argentine goods as a positive because that is the lowest rate the U.S. imposed.
But Trump’s protectionist moves threaten the recovery Milei has engineered by increasing the risk of a global economic downturn, economists say.
“It’s like he was landing a plane on a sunny day and then all of a sudden he hit a storm,” Dante Sica, a former production minister, said of the global turbulence. “The landing is going to be rougher.”
But it was all smiles Monday when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Argentina. At the presidential palace, he commended Milei’s economic overhaul.
Milei thanked Bessent for helping Argentina secure a new $20 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. He reiterated his hopes, however improbable, for a free-trade agreement with the U.S.