标题: A Naval Century [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 9-7-2011 09:23 标题: A Naval Century 本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布
(1) Robert D Kaplan, The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict; The 21st century's defining battleground is going to be on water. Foreighn Policy, Sept/Oct 2011.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict
Quote:
"Europe is a landscape; East Asia a seascape. Therein lies a crucial difference between the 20th and 21st centuries. The most contested areas of the globe in the last century lay on dry land in Europe, particularly in the flat expanse that rendered the eastern and western borders of Germany artificial and exposed to the inexorable march of armies.
"Even accounting for how dramatically technology has compressed distance, the sea itself still acts as a barrier to aggression, at least to a degree that dry land does not. The sea, unlike land, creates clearly defined borders, giving it the potential to reduce conflict. Then there is speed to consider. Even the fastest warships travel comparatively slowly, 35 knots, say, reducing the chance of miscalculations and giving diplomats more hours -- days, even -- to reconsider decisions.
"it is in Southeast Asia, with its 615 million people, where China's 1.3 billion people converge with the Indian subcontinent's 1.5 billion people. And the geographical meeting place of these states, and their militaries, is maritime: the South China Sea.
"The oil transported through the Strait of Malacca from the Indian Ocean, en route to East Asia through the South China Sea, is more than six times the amount that passes through the Suez Canal and 17 times the amount that transits the Panama Canal. Roughly two-thirds of South Korea's energy supplies, nearly 60 percent of Japan's and Taiwan's energy supplies, and about 80 percent of China's crude-oil imports come through the South China Sea.
"Indeed, China's position here [in South China Sea] is in many ways akin to America's position vis-à-vis the similar-sized Caribbean in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
"the tense, ongoing standoff between the United States and China * * * threatens eventually to shift in China's favor in East Asia, largely due to China's geographical centrality to the region. THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE SUMMATION of the new Asian geopolitical landscape has come not from Washington or Beijing, but from Canberra.
"The problem with this model [China empire looming over East Asia, similar to US over Caribbean Basin] is Japan, which would probably not accept Chinese hegemony, however soft.
Note:
(a) For handoff (n), see hand off (vt, vi; First Known Use 1946):
"to hand (a [American] football) to a nearby teammate on a play"
www.m-w.com
(b) equipoise (n):
"1: a state of equilibrium
2: COUNTERBALANCE"
(c) Sunda Islands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_Islands
For maps, click "Greater Sunda Islands" and "Lesser Sunda Islands" in
section 2 List of Islands
* What does Sunda mean? See Sunda Strait
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_Strait
(the strait between the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra; connects the Java Sea to the Indian Ocean; The name comes from the Indonesian term Pasundan, meaning "West Java")
(d) Makassar Strait
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makassar_Strait
(The strait is a common shipping route for ocean going ships too big to fit through the Straits of Malacca)
* Makassar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makassar
(provincial capital of South Sulawesi, Indonesia, and the largest city on Sulawesi Island; facing the Makassar Strait)
* Makassar is named after Makassarese people in South Sulawesi island, who speak Makassarese language.
(e) Thucydides
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides
(c 460 BC-c 395 BC; Greek historian; dubbed the father of "scientific history", because of his strict standards of evidence-gathering and analysis in terms of cause and effect without reference to intervention by the gods)
(f) I can not find bandwagon as a verb (as used in this article).
bandwagon (n):
"1: a usually ornate and high wagon for a band of musicians especially in a circus parade
2: a popular party, faction, or cause that attracts growing support —often used in such phrases as jump on the bandwagon"
(g) Machiavelli
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machiavelli
(section 2.2: Discourses on Livy: The Discourses on the First Ten Books of Titus Livy (Discorsi) nominally discuss a classical history of early Ancient Rome. Machiavelli presents it as a series of lessons on how a republic SHOULD be started and structured. It is a larger work than the Prince, and it more openly explains the advantages of republics. It includes early versions of the concept of checks and balances, and asserts the superiority of a republic over a principality ["in other words a type of monarchy" Wiki page titled "Discourses on Livy"]. It became one of the central texts of republicanism)
* Livy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livy
(Titus Livius (59 BC – AD 17), known as Livy in English, was a Roman historian who wrote a monumental history of Rome and the Roman people)
(h) summation (n):
1: the act or process of forming a sum : addition
* * *
4: a final part of an argument reviewing points made and expressing conclusions"
Definition 4 is the same as "closing argument"--presented at the end of a trial of an American court, by both parties.
(i) Concert of Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concert_of_Europe
(2) Shashank Joshi and Ashley Townshend, China carrier no cause for regional alarm. The Australian, Sept 6, 2011
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/china-carrier-no-cause-for-regional-alarm/story-e6frg6ux-1226129987098
("Nor can the Varyag accommodate heavy refuelling assets or fixed-wing surveillance planes - further undermining the J-15s' range and leaving both ship and aircraft vulnerable to aerial attack from afar")
(3) Dan Blumenthal with Randall Schriver, Mark Stokes, LC Russell Hsiao and Michael Mazza, Asian Alliances in the 21st Century. Project 2049 Project Institute, July 30, 2011.
http://project2049.net/documents/Asian_Alliances_21st_Century.pdf
My comment:
(a) Read only the section "Scenario One: Taiwan," pp 19-26
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty
(a 1987 agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union; The treaty eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with intermediate ranges, defined as between 500-5,500 km)