(1) David Pierson, Pork Shortage Hurting Chinese Economy. Los Angeles Times, Sept 9, 2011.
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/09/business/la-fi-china-pork-lovers-20110910
Quote:
"Basic stir-fry [pork] meat costs about $2.50 per pound, or about one-sixth a laborer's daily wage.
"China, by far the world's biggest producer of pork, is home to about half the world's porcine population with 460 million pigs. That's about seven times more than the United States, the second-largest producer. But it hasn't been enough to keep a lid on prices, which have risen steeply since the middle of last year. That's when Chinese farmers reduced production in response to high feed costs and shrinking profit margins. A spate of hog diseases also cut into the supply. * * * [China] consumes 100,000 tons of pork daily.
"'The government has limited options," he [an analyst at Soozhu.com] said. 'They can import more, but most of the production is already in China.'
Note:
(a) The report quotes a Chinese adage, "A Chinese adage goes, "The world will be in peace as long as there are grains and pork."
Either the author invents it or it is a Chinese thing. Taiwan does not have the adage.
(b) The report said, "Closing in on 100 pounds per person annually, the Chinese eat about twice as much pork as Americans."
Let them (Chinese) eat beef. Americans eat beef in large measure, even in New England, though beef, a red meat, is not good to (human) health. I can not fathom why New Englanders do not eat seafood, as Taiwanese and Japanese do--now that all the three people live by ocean.
(c) soozhu.com 搜猪网
(d) Wu Mart _物美集团 (总部地址:北京市海淀区西四环北路158-1号物美商业大厦)
www.wumart.com
(e) The report cited a researcher Liu Yuman, who advised Chinese to eat chicken. Why not?
(2) Fayen Wong, China Pork Prices Seen Rising to Year-End--Industry Body. Reuters, Sept 8, 2011
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E7K80BS20110908
("'Corn prices have continued to rise over the past few months so that will increase production costs for pig farmers,' [said] Qiao Yufeng, vice president of the China Animal Husbandry Association" 中国畜牧业协会)
My comment:
(a) The report said, "Lower than-expected hog stocks have also hurt demand for soybeans in China, the world's largest importer." So it is China's hog deficiency that hurts soybean exporters outside China--not the otehr way around.
(b) The last paragraph of the report stated, "China has already increased its pork imports as demand growth has surpassed the growth of production." See next.
(3)
(a) Paul A. Ebeling Jr, Hog Market Recap. Sept 15, 2011
http://www.livetradingnews.com/hog-market-recap-54419.htm
("Rumors of buying from China of US Pork this week has helped support" of US hog price)
(b) Li Yongchun, China Pork Imports from U.S. Rise Fivefold. Caixin, Sept 13, 2011.
http://english.caing.com/2011-09-13/100302160.html
(c) Pork Imports Set to Hit a Record. China Daily, Sept 17, 2011
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2011-09/17/content_23437472.htm(import not enouh to sate domestic demand: "An earlier report from the Netherlands-based Rabobank Group indicated that the potential gap between pork supply and demand would be between 2 and 2.5 million tons in 2012. The import volume of pork and pork offal will be 1.1 to 1.4 million tons this year")
(4) Yang Wanli and Shi Baoyin, Pig Farmers Hope to Breed Success. China Daily, Aug 22, 2011
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/business/2011-08/22/content_13160238.htm
Quote: In China, "small family farms are buckling under the weight of volatile prices, disease and rising costs. * * * Ten years ago, 15 or 16 small-scale breeders lived in his [Yang's] village [in Henan]. Now only two are left. * * * Five years ago, Yang said, the cost of raising a hog totaled about 1,000 yuan; now it's about 1,500 yuan. The selling price, 2,500 yuan, hasn't changed. 'Doing city jobs only paid 10 to 20 yuan a day years ago, and people would rather raise hogs,' Yang said. 'But now, people make 100 yuan a day by doing city jobs. Who would choose breeding pigs?'
My comment:
(a) The report stated,"Li is among many family breeders across the country who have chosen to leave the business since an outbreak of H1N1 flu in 2008."
It alludes to
pandemic H1N1/09 virus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_H1N1/09_virus
(section 1.1 Virus origins)
(b) Qinyang 河南省焦作市 沁阳市
(c) Chuying 河南雏鹰农牧股份有限公司
www.chu-ying.com/
(d) New Hope Group 新希望集团
www.newhopegroup.com/
(e) CP Group 正大集团
www.cpgroup.cn/
(5) Nigel Chalk, Darn Them Piggies! Pork Prices And The Inflation Outlook For China. International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sept 11, 2011 (blog).
http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/09/11/pork-prices-and-chinas-inflation-outlook/
Quote:
"Why is inflation so concentrated in this particular slice of the consumption basket? Mainly because the supply-demand balance for food in China is exceptionally tight and the supply response to higher food prices is both slow and weak.
"This isn’t simply a matter of importing more food to offset domestic supply disruptions. China’s food demands are just way too big. China both produces and consumes * * * one-half of the world’s pigs
My comment:
(a) In quotation 1, the clause "the supply response to higher food prices is both slow and weak" refers to the fact that information is China is opaque, if not censored. Economist Adam Smith coined the term "an invisible hand": people seeking profit will act and react to price hike by increasing production. But in China people rarely know what is going on.
(b) A section heading of this article reads, "Pork happens."
It is a mock of a phrase that suggests it is not the speaker's fault: "Things happen" or, vulgarly: "Shit happens."
(c) The "out of the woods" is a phrase, where the woods is a forest (figuratively, a dangerous place).
(1) US Meat and Poultry Production & Consumption: An Overview; Fact Sheet. American Meat Institute, April 2009.
http://www.meatami.com/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/48781
(Chicken consumption in US has increased over years)
In comparison, seafood consumption (fish and shellfish) per capita in US was 15.8 pounds--slightly lower than that of turkey--for both 2009 and 2010.
"As a pork market, China ranked tenth in the world in 2008 with pork imports valued at US $1.1 billion. * * * China’s main pork imports included frozen edible offal (US $553M), frozen pork (US $296M), frozen hams and shoulders (US $227M), pig fat (US $16M), frozen swine livers (US $5M), and prepared pork (US $1M).
"For China, meat was the third largest agri-food import sector in 2008 after oilseeds and animal and vegetable fats and oils. Pork imports accounted for 47.3% of meat imports. The value of China’s pork
imports more than doubled from 2007 to 2008.
"In 2008, China exported pork and pork products valued at US $678M, a decline of 11.1% over 2007. The bulk of those exports consisted of prepared or preserved pork (42.5%), frozen pork (28.4%), sausages
(14.9%), fresh pork (7.1%), frozen carcasses (5.2%), and hams (1.1%). Top destinations included Hong Kong (45.9%), Japan (35.6%), Kyrgyzstan (4.0%), Singapore (2.8%), and Macau (2.7%).
Note: preserved pork 腊肉| 腌肉
(3) Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), US Department of Agriculture. April 2011
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf
Quote:
"Record global pork production is largely a function of efficiency gains in China [in part]" page 1
"Chinese imports [of broiler meat] are forecast lower as reduced US shipments (as a result of market access issues) more than offsets higher shipments from South America," (page 1); "China’s forecast [in broiler meat] is revised lower on continued antidumping and countervailing duties on US product." page 6
"China is raised as robust demand [in pork] outpaces modest production gains." page 5
Note:
(a) Regarding quotation 2.
(b) In page 3 out of a total 23 ("3/23"), the first four categories (production, consumption, imports and exports) are world's, followed by "US Exports."
(c) Page 7 shows beef/veal production and consumption in China have decreased over time (from 2007 to 2011). In that period, China has produced slightly more beef/veal than consumed.
(d) Page 9 shows pork production and consumption in China have increased from 2007 to 2011. Consumption of broiler meat shot past domestic production started in 2008, and continued each following year.
(e) Page 10 shows China's pork import has increased from 2007 to 2011, which nonetheless is about 30% of that (import) of world's largest pork importer: Japan.
(f) In China, production and consumption of broiler meat has increased slightly from 2007 to 2011 (page 11), but China is not a significant importer of broiler meat (page 12). Consumption of broiler meat shot past domestic production started in 2009, and continued each following year.
【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: (1) David Pierson, Pork Shortage Hurting Chinese Economy. Los Angeles Times, Sept 9, 2011.
: http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/09/business/la-fi-china-pork-lovers-20110910
: Quote:
: "Basic stir-fry [pork] meat costs about $2.50 per pound, or about one-sixth a laborer's daily wage.
: (以下引言省略...)
(1) Where was, or were, wild hoar domsticated?
(a) Wild boar started out in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA).
Larson G et al, Worldwide Phylogeography of Wild Boar Reveals Multiple Centers of Pig Domestication. Science, 307: 1618-1621 (2005)
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/307/5715/1618.full
("Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from 686 wild and domestic pig specimens place the origin of wild boar in island Southeast Asia (ISEA), where they dispersed across Eurasia.")
Note: Generally believed to be human origin of ISEA, aborigines of Taiwan, seafarers without a compass, left Taiwan more than a millennium ago and POPULARIZED islands as far as New Zealand and Easter Islands. See the map in
Jen Laloup, Worth a Thousand Words. PLOS (Public Library of Science), Feb 2, 2011 (blog).
http://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2011/02/02/worth-a-thousand-words-36/
(b) In East Asia, there were multiple center of wild boar domestication.
Larson G et al, Patterns of East Asian pig domestication, migration, and turnover revealed by modern and ancient DNA. Proc Nat Acad Sci, 107: 7686-7691 (2010)
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/17/7686.full
("the Yellow River drainage basin where millet may have been first domesticated as early as 10,000 BP" [before present]; "the downstream Yangtze River region" (the previous quotatiojns from the section Conclusions); "one in India, three in peninsular Southeast Asia, and one off the coast of Taiwan" (from abstract))
(2) How long does it take to raise a pig from birth to market?
(a) in US.
(i) Guide to Raising Healthy Pigs. University of Wisconsin Extension (at Madison), undated (A3858-03).
http://learningstore.uwex.edu/assets/pdfs/a3858-03.pdf
(page 1 of 6: "Many backyard operations still feature farrow-to-finish operations in which teh animals are raised from birth to market ho (around 6 months of age and 265 pounds) and are then sold to market. However, many operations focus on only one part of the process. Feeder pig producers have farrowing operations and sell their pigs when they reach 40-60 pounds. Market hog finishers buy feeder pigs privately or through sale barns, finish the animals to market weight, and sell them to market. Farrowing operations requires more labor and investment than simply market hog operations.")
(ii) Hogs: Background; Briefing Rooms. Economic Research Service (ERS), USDA, undated.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/hogs/background.htm
("Farrow-to-finish operations raise hogs from birth to slaughter weight, about 240-270 pounds")
(b) I do not know how long it TOOK for a pig to reach market in China (decades or centuries ago). But Chinese certainly know to import good breeds. Nowadays, a pig in China takes similar time to market.
Increasing Pork Prices Breed Hopes, Worries. China Daily, June 23, 2011
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2011-06/23/content_22842743.htm
("Each pig consumes 250 kg of corn in the six months or so from birth to market. Corn, which sold for 1.6 yuan a kg in 2005, now costs 2.3 yuan a kg. It means Wang Yugui spends 12,250 yuan more on corn.")
China Daily is not lying. I just found another source saying the same thing, six months.
(3) Fresh Pork from Farm to Table; Fact Sheets: Pork Preparation. Food Safety and Inspection Service, US DA, undated.
http://www.fsis.usda.gov/factsheets/Pork_From_Farm_to_Table/index.asp
My comment: Read only two Q & A:
(a) Can antibiotics and hormones be used in pork raising?
(b) Why is pork a "red" meat?
As for (a) about antibiotics use in meat production, but see
Bill Tomson, Antibiotics in Pork Draw More Scrutiny by Inspectors. Wall Street Journal,
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904265504576566433005701152.html
Quote:
"U.S. inspectors [from US Department of Agriculture] on Monday started using more sensitive tests to detect antibiotics in pork
"While a small, but growing amount of meat products are touted as being free of antibiotics, most meat isn't.
"The effect on people of consuming over a lifetime tiny quantities of penicillin, neomycin and other drugs left over in meat is little studied.
"The Food and Drug Administration also has been concerned about the rise of drug-resistant pathogens
Note: FDA is an agency under US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), separate from USDA.
【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: (1) US Meat and Poultry Production & Consumption: An Overview; Fact Sheet. American Meat Institute, April 2009.
: http://www.meatami.com/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/48781
: (Chicken consumption in US has increased over years)
: (以下引言省略...)
Carrie Brown-Lima, Melissa Cooney and David Cleary, An Overview of the Brazil-China Ssoybean Trade and Its Strategic Implications for Conservation. The Nature Conservacy, undated.
http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/southamerica/brazil/explore/brazil-china-soybean-trade.pdf
(page 14: "In northern China, where soybeans have traditionally been grown, water tables are dropping at a rate of 3 to 10 feet a year. As a result of diminishing water in the north and west of the country, deserts are expanding at a rate of 360,000 hectares (1,400 square miles) a year and drifting sands are covering cropland, making agriculture impossible. Considering that it takes 1,500 tons of water to produce 1 ton
of soybeans, the water shortage is a highly limiting factor for soybean expansion. By importing soybeans, China is effectively importing 14% of its water needs")
Note:
(a) Figure 3 indicates that since 2000 (inclusive), soybean demand has increased dramatically from China, but been flat from Japan, EU-27 and Mexico.
(b) Figure 9 shows China started importing soybean after 1994 (exclusive).
(c) Figure 11 "Origin of China's soybean imports in 2009": US 50%, Brazil 38&, Argentina 9%, Uruguay 2% and Canada 1%.
【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: (1) Where was, or were, wild hoar domsticated?
: (a) Wild boar started out in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA).
: Larson G et al, Worldwide Phylogeography of Wild Boar Reveals Multiple Centers of Pig Domestication. Science, 307: 1618-1621 (2005)
: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/307/5715/1618.fu
: (以下引言省略...)
Re: Increasing Pork Prices Breed Hopes, Worries. China Daily, June 23, 2011
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2011-06/23/content_22842743.ht
("Each pig consumes 250 kg of corn in the six months or so from birth to
market. Corn, which sold for 1.6 yuan a kg in 2005, now costs 2.3 yuan a kg.
It means Wang Yugui spends 12,250 yuan more on corn.")
The report quoted a Beijing farmer Li Yongqiang as saying, "A sow bears twice a year and bears about 13 or 14 piglets when the farmer is lucky. But the farmer starts to profit when a sow bears 15 piglets."
Marshall Eckblad, Big Litters Put Farms in Hog Heaven, Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303795304576454290739070946.html
(In US, litter sizes have surged: "Experts say there's no identifiable limit to how much bigger the healthy litter can grow. After U.S. producers took 14 years to grow the average healthy litter from eight to nine piglets, they took less than six years to move from nine to ten. The size of a healthy litter takes into account an approximate death rate of 10 percent at top-performing farms."
So I have some doubts about litter size of up to "15" in China daily.
【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: (1) Where was, or were, wild hoar domsticated?
: (a) Wild boar started out in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA).
: Larson G et al, Worldwide Phylogeography of Wild Boar Reveals Multiple Centers of Pig Domestication. Science, 307: 1618-1621 (2005)
: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/307/5715/1618.fu
: (以下引言省略...)