标题: South America Owes Its Prosperity to China [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 11-23-2011 10:14 标题: South America Owes Its Prosperity to China John Paul Rathbone, China Is the Only Show That Counts for Latin America; A slowdown would separate the dynamic reformers from the heterodox laggards. Financial Times, Nov 23, 2011 title in print). http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a18ee2 ... 8-00144feabdc0.html
Quote:
"Much of South America’s prosperity over the past decade – and its sense of having arrived, including its significant contribution to global economic growth – has been due to the China-inspired commodity price boom.
"That is why the possibility the Chinese economy might slow, rather than that eurozone might collapse, is the hotter topic in South America. The effects are potentially severe. If China slows, the prices of the commodities that account for half of Latin American exports would fall. Current account deficits would widen. Fiscal policy would also have to tighten: commodity-related revenues account for one quarter of Chile’s budget and a quarter of Mexico’s. * * * Chinese foreign direct investment in South America is already worth more than that into the US and Europe combined.
My comment:
(a) I am aware of the online title: S America Eyes Beijing Prospects Warily.
(b) The commentary says, "Total European bank loans are equivalent to about 15 per cent of Latin American gross domestic product." I assume it means the amount of money European banks has lent various Latin American identities (governments and civilian) through the years.
(c) heterodox (adj; Greek heterodoxos, from heter- + doxa opinion):
"contrary to or different from an acknowledged standard, a traditional form, or an established religion : UNORTHODOX, UNCONVENTIONAL <heterodox ideas>' WWW.M-W.COM
(d) The commentary states, "Even if Chinese economic growth decelerates next year to 7 per cent, that is still equivalent to an extra $490bn of output. To deliver the same, the European Union would have to grow by almost 4 per cent – eight times more than the EU forecasts it will."
(i) It is estimated that by the end of this year, China's (excluding's Hong Kong's) GDP according to foreign exchange rate will be close to, but fall short of, $7 trillion. That is why the commentary maintains that 7% growth rate will vault an extra $490bn for China.
(ii) As for European Union (comprising 27 nations), CIA World Factbook has this to say:
"GDP (purchasing power parity): $14.82 trillion (2010 est.) * * * GDP (official exchange rate): $16.07 trillion (2010 est.)" https://www.cia.gov/library/publ ... ctbook/geos/ee.html
Yes, that is 2010, not 2011. Still, that is too much/big for China.
(iii) Instead, Eurozone (made up of 17 nations) has the 2010--again, not 2011--economic output of 9.2 trillion euro (by eign exchange rate), or $13 trillion (today 1 euro = $1.34).
Then "grow by almost 4 per cent" will bring Eurozone an addition close to China's.
(iv) In a nutshell, the commentary should have said Eurozone, rather than European Union.
My comment:
(a) Jim O'Neill, The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond. Penguin, Dec 8, 2011
(that is the publication date) states China will overtake US in GDP according to foreign exchange rate. Of course, he has said in the past several months. But he said it again 2 or 3 days ago, in his book promotion tour. But remember that currently
China's GDP (by foreign exchange rate) is less than a half of America's.
(b) Various organizations estimate that China's GDP (adjusted by PPP) may surpass America's as early as 2016.
Note:
(a) US Diplomat Tells China to Act Responsibly in Africa. AFP, Nov 22, 2011 http://news.yahoo.com/us-diploma ... rica-155936921.html
(dispatched from Johannesburg; "Speaking after his return from US-China talks on Africa, Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, said his message to Beijing is: 'Act as a responsible player.'")
(b) He did go to China to hold talks, but not to Chendu (where US Secretary of Commerce went). Once he returned to Washington DC, he held a conference call with reporters.
(i) 美促中国在非洲展现'负责任姿态.' BBC Chinese, Nov 23, 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/si ... _china_africa.shtml
("美国国务院非洲事务助理国务卿卡尔森在出席了中美第五轮非洲事务磋商后表示，他想对北京传达一个信息，即在非洲事务中做一个负责任的参与者。卡尔森在华盛顿接受非洲记者的电话采访时说，美方希望，中方应当雇用非洲当地劳工、遵守当地劳工规定、支付体面的工资、培训当地员工并传递技术知识")
(ii) Briefing on Assistant Secretary Carson’s Recent Travel to Asia. (By) Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, Nov 22, 2011 http://southafrica.usembassy.gov/mediahub_111123a.html
("On Tuesday, November 22nd, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Johnnie Carson briefed journalists across the continent on his recent trip to Asia. Assistant Secretary Carson traveled to China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea from November 8-15 to hold bilateral meetings with his counterparts and to co-chair the fifth round of the U.S.-China Sub-Dialogue on Africa in Beijing. He provided a read-out of his trip and discussed areas of mutual interest and cooperation in Africa between the United States and Asia.")
There is no need to read the rest of AFP, BBC reports or the briefing.
Note: BBC also reports this topic, below which was archive news:
世界看中国：土库曼-中国输气管. BBC Chinese, Sept 16, 2009 http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/si ... worl_pipeline.shtml
(Turkmenistan; "库曼的天然气蕴藏量高达2.8兆立方米，世界排名第四，也是前苏联加盟共和国中天然气储量第二大的国家，仅次于俄罗斯")