标题: Ma's Swan Song [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 1-12-2012 12:19 标题: Ma's Swan Song (1) Peter Enav, Taiwan Incumbent in Tough Re-Election Fight. Associated Press, Jan 12, 2012. http://my.news.yahoo.com/taiwan- ... ight-072951627.html
("Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has delighted Beijing and Washington with his efforts to pivot from confrontation to peacemaking with the authoritarian government in China * * * That may not be enough for the voters of Taiwan")
My comment:
(a) The report says, "Her [Tsai's] rallies have seemed more energetic, and some private polling data suggests she is making particular inroads with urban dwellers under the age of 40, most concerned with high property prices."
(i) Taiwanese decided long ago to vote against Ma, who is such a despot. (It is Ma's personality, not his policie--including those toward China, that has infuriated, even alarmed Taiwanese, me in particular.) In this election, they do not necessarily vote FOR Tsai. That is why Tsai is "winnin" (quting Charlie Sheen) effortlessly.
(ii) Since decades ago, internal opinion polls by candidates--or other private opinion polls--have been reportedly very accurate. It is the published opinion polls that aim to influence people that are intentionally misleading. In this sense, Ma's doom in the presidential election was predicted months ago.
(b) China has placed all eggs with Ma and KMT (even during the Chen administration). So it (china) now falls on its own sword.
(c) The presidential race is settled. The eyes are on legislature race, which by design is stacked against DPP. I have no idea why the Chen administration would have allowed it in the first place, despite stong misgivings among DPP campaign strategists at the time the election law, as well as redistricting, was enacted. In the last prediction before the ten-day blackout period, Exchange of Future Events foretold DPP trailed KMT by just six seats (despite districting flaws). James Soong's PFP may hold the balance in the next lagislature. That is why Mr Soong won't drop out. His tangled relationship with KMT (and Ma) is impossiblt to smooth out. Most important, he is sacrificing himself (akin to sacrifice bunt in basball) to chaperon his lieutenants to the legislature--without the bully pulpit of presidential race, Soong ca not accomplish this goal. Now KMT is desperate, calling on him to stand down. Soong won't. See next.
(3) Relations With China Dominate Taiwan Vote. Al Jazeera, Jan 12, 2012 (a video shot at Kinmen/Quemoy; YouTube.com, Uploaded by AlJazeeraEnglish on Jan 12, 2012). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ww2TSMSbX8
(4) Tom Orlik, Freezing Exports, Not Boiling Politics, Determine Taiwan's Growth. Wall Street Journal, Jan 12, 2012 (in the xcolumn of Heard on the Street) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... 55900269094434.html
("For Taiwan's economy, it's foreign demand not domestic politics that is the decisive factor.")
My comment:
(a) Because it is not in today's WSJ (US edition), I presume the analysis is either a blog or in WSJ Asia.
(b) The graphic of the analysis is meant to show changes in Taiwan's export and GDP go hand in hand with that of global GDP.
My comment:
(a) Foreigners, including those who pay Taiwan a visit occasionally, simply do not know how much many Taiwanese, me included, hate Ma. It has nothing to do with balance of power. As a Chinese idiom (in China; unknown in Taiwan) says, "Personality alone determines one's fate."
(b) The report states "it’s not uncommon to hear such thoughts voiced. As Shelley Rigger, a professor of political science at Davidson College said in an interview with China Real Time, the idea that Taiwan needs a strong opposition party has been part of the reason the DPP has been able to come back so quickly from its drubbing four years ago amid widespread corruption accusations against former president and DPP leader Chen Shui-bian."
President Ma alienated electorate in no time after his inauguration. Foreigners are simply ignorant.
In fact, the very Professor Shelley Rigger last fall forecast a handy win by Ma.
Note:
(i) The report states, "Baodao Optical reveals how far some Taiwanese businesses will go to romance a Chinese market that many see as the wellspring of their future prosperity."
romance (vt):
"1: to try to influence or curry favor with especially by lavishing personal attention, gifts, or flattery
2: to carry on a love affair with"
(ii) gab (vi; probably short for gabble):
"to talk in a rapid or thoughtless manner : CHATTER" www.m-w.com
"There are around 1.5 million Taiwanese nationals doing business in China, with many of them living in coastal and southern China. A total of 18 million people are eligible to vote in the Saturday election.
"Samuel Kuo, chairman of the Taiwan Business Association of China, one of the many trade unions representing China-based Taiwanese businessmen and women, said more than 200,000 of its members have plans to fly back to vote this weekend, more than the approximately 150,000 in the last presidential election in 2008.
My comment:
(i) "[A]round 1.5 million Taiwanese nationals doing business in China." That does not mean they live there. Further, not all Taiwanese who do business necessarily vote Blue. Even if they do, the number is not enough to overcome the predicted 6% gap Tsai will vanguish Ma on the election date. (The gap has been stable for a month, prior to the poll-blackout ten days before the elections.) Out of 18 million eligible voters (which include me, though I have been away from Taiwan for decades--indeed Taiwan has no way of knowing if I am alive or not; Taiwan lacks a mechanism to clean up rollof voter), 70% will cast ballots, based on past indications. Then 6% of the votes cast by Taiwanese living in Taiwan perennially will clearly exceed, by a wide margin, whatever number of oversea Taiwanese who are willing to run the gauntlet of the hassle to fly home.
(ii) There is no need to read the rest of the report.
(c) John Boudreau, Silicon Valley keeps eye on Taiwan election. San Jose Mercury News, Jan 11. 2012 http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_19723068
("In 2008, Ma won Taiwan's presidential election by a landslide * * * Ma, though, has lost favor with many Taiwanese")
My comment:
(i) Though unspecified, the report seems to file from San Jose, not Taiwan.
(ii) Summary in Silicon Valley fly home to vote. A few in the report will vote Blue, to keep China-Taiwan relationship smooth.