In any event, the usual Keynesian view is that the WWII fiscal expansion provided the stimulus that finally got the U.S. economy out of the Great Depression. … I have estimated (in my book Macroeconomics, A Modern Approach) that World War II raised U.S. real defense expenditures by $540 billion (1996 dollars) per year at the peak in 1943–44, amounting to 44% of trend real GDP. I also estimated that the war raised real GDP above trend by $430 billion per year in 1943–44. Thus, the multiplier was 0.8 (430/540). The other way to put this is that the war lowered components of GDP aside from military purchases. The main declines were in private investment, non-military parts of government purchases, and net exports—personal consumer expenditure changed little.
The large and growing peer-reviewed economics literature on the economic impacts of stadiums, arenas, sports franchises, and sport mega-events has consistently found no substantial evidence of increased jobs, incomes, or tax revenues for a community associated with any of these things.
My friend and colleague Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman always reminds us there are only two kinds of economists - good economists and bad economists. We’re good economists. … You say, “Nobody’s going to admit that they’re a bad economist so how can we tell the difference?” See if the economist suggests the possibility of a free lunch. We all know that there’s no free lunch but free-lunch economists will tell you things such as: WWII got us out of the Depression; building sports arenas will stimulate employment; monopolies can charge any price they wish; government spending is good for the economy; and trade surpluses are good and trade deficits are bad. Since my colleagues are good economists, you’ll hear no such nonsense from them.
本文选自薛兆丰新制度主义网站：http://xuezhaofeng.com/blog/?p=731
相关阅读：
析“体育经济”
什么令人丧失信心
扩张财政旧神话，东亚政客新说辞
Robert J. Barro, “Voodoo Multipliers,” at http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol6/iss2/art5/
Dennis Coates1 and Brad R. Humphreys2, “Do Economists Reach a Conclusion on Subsidies for Sports Franchises, Stadiums, and Mega-Events?” Econ Journal Watch, Volume 5, Number 3, September 2008, pp 294-315, at http://www.aier.org/ejw/archive/do-economists-reach-a-conclusion/doc_download/3626-ejw-200809
Walter E. Williams, “A Dynamite Economics Department,” at http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/wew/articles/01/dynamitedept.html
张五常，2008年12月，“何日君再来？”（“三十年代美国的大萧条到四十年代终于脱身，不是因为政府大花钱鼓励内需，而是因为第二次世界大战。”）
相关阅读
中国难以避免大萧条 (5)
欧鲁克：亚当?斯密笑到最后 (0)
摩托罗拉的往昔时光 (3)
张五常：救金融之灾有三派之别 (5)
张维迎：彻底埋葬凯恩斯主义 (20)