标题: Bogus Boom in China? [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 8-17-2009 10:54 标题: Bogus Boom in China? 本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布
John Makin, China: Bogus Boom? America Enterprise Institute, August 2009.
http://www.aei.org/outlook/100061
Quote:
"Once China had announced its 8 percent growth target, it began to disburse funds directed at a sharp increase in public works spending. It is important to understand that the disbursal of funds is recorded as GDP growth. So the government can easily control the pace of growth by the pace at which it releases funds that have already been allocated in the stimulus package to the creation of higher production or growth numbers. Funds disbursed for fixed-asset investment by state-owned enterprises or provincial governments are counted as having been spent when they are disbursed. In fact, the funds go out to the state-owned enterprises and provincial governments and may be held until actual projects are identified and undertaken.
"The same convention, counting production and shipments as de facto outlays by end-users, is employed with respect to retail sales data in China. Shipments to retailers are counted as retail sales on the apparent assumption that ultimately all goods shipped will be sold at some point in the future. China's nominal retail sales have been rising at a rate of about 15 percent year-over-year during the first half of 2009 because that is the rate at which shipments to retailers have been occurring. There is very little direct data available to measure actual sales by recipients of the retail shipments to ultimate consumers.
"The problem with China's approach to the economic data, counting shipments as sales and funding of projects as projects undertaken, is that there may be substantial lags in the real impact of government programs as well as substantial lags in actual spending on goods shipped to retailers.
My comment:
(a) The above report is cited by
Leninist China faces its capitalist crisis; Don't put too much faith in the Chinese to deliver the world from recession. Guardian, Aug. 17, 2009.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/aug/17/china-economy-global-recession
which actually reviews a book other than the report above.
Neither is novel, except the quote above.
(b) In fact, in Mitbbs.com a posting two years ago stated that his wife worked for Huawei, whose accounting practice was, and may still be, booking a sale as soon as the eqipment was shipped, even though the company (Huawei) might never recover the moeny or even though it (equipment) was gratis.
※ 修改:．choi 于 Aug 17 14:57:30 修改本文．[FROM: 65.217.0.0] 作者: choi 时间: 8-17-2009 10:54 标题: Bogus Boom in China? 本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布
John Makin, China: Bogus Boom? America Enterprise Institute, August 2009.
http://www.aei.org/outlook/100061
Quote:
"Once China had announced its 8 percent growth target, it began to disburse funds directed at a sharp increase in public works spending. It is important to understand that the disbursal of funds is recorded as GDP growth. So the government can easily control the pace of growth by the pace at which it releases funds that have already been allocated in the stimulus package to the creation of higher production or growth numbers. Funds disbursed for fixed-asset investment by state-owned enterprises or provincial governments are counted as having been spent when they are disbursed. In fact, the funds go out to the state-owned enterprises and provincial governments and may be held until actual projects are identified and undertaken.
"The same convention, counting production and shipments as de facto outlays by end-users, is employed with respect to retail sales data in China. Shipments to retailers are counted as retail sales on the apparent assumption that ultimately all goods shipped will be sold at some point in the future. China's nominal retail sales have been rising at a rate of about 15 percent year-over-year during the first half of 2009 because that is the rate at which shipments to retailers have been occurring. There is very little direct data available to measure actual sales by recipients of the retail shipments to ultimate consumers.
"The problem with China's approach to the economic data, counting shipments as sales and funding of projects as projects undertaken, is that there may be substantial lags in the real impact of government programs as well as substantial lags in actual spending on goods shipped to retailers.
My comment:
(a) The above report is cited by
Leninist China faces its capitalist crisis; Don't put too much faith in the Chinese to deliver the world from recession. Guardian, Aug. 17, 2009.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/aug/17/china-economy-global-recession
which actually reviews a book other than the report above.
Neither is novel, except the quote above.
(b) In fact, in Mitbbs.com a posting two years ago stated that his wife worked for Huawei, whose accounting practice was, and may still be, booking a sale as soon as the eqipment was shipped, even though the company (Huawei) might never recover the moeny or even though it (equipment) was gratis.