标题: Beijing Stuck With a Fistful of Dollars [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 12-28-2009 13:37 标题: Beijing Stuck With a Fistful of Dollars 本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布
Satyajit Das, Beijing stuck with a fistful of dollars. Sudney Morning Herald
, Dec. 29, 2009.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/beijing-stuck-with-a-fistful-of-dollars-20091228-lh74.html
My comment:
(a) The first half is for general audience, which a smart person like you
can from mid-section: the paragraph that contains "Derek Scissors." Mr.
Scissors' statement was reported before, at paragraph 10 of Chinese (as well
as English) edition of Financial Times.
Jamil Anderlini, 中国今年上半年经济数据出现差异. FTChinese, Aug. 15, 2009.
http://www.360doc.com/content/09/0805/09/199_4678931.shtml
(b) This analysis states, "Almost 40 years ago, John Connally, then the US
treasury secretary, accurately identified China's problem: 'It may be our
currency, but it's your problem.'"
What does this mean?
There is a draft to this analysis, titled "Dragon's easy credit inflates
bubble" of the same day and in the web site of the same newspaper.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/dragons-easy-credit-inflates-bubble-20091228-lhc5.html
The draft is similar, but expanded on this in the last paragraph: "Every
lender knows Keynes' famous observation: 'If I owe you a pound, I have a
problem; but if I owe you a million, the problem is yours.' Almost 40 years
ago, John Connally, then US Treasury secretary, accurately identified China'
s problem: 'It may be our currency, but it's your problem.'"
(c)
(i) Bretton Woods system
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system#Nixon_Shock
Quote:
"Preparing to rebuild the international economic system as World War II was
still raging, 730 delegates from all 44 Allied nations gathered at the Mount
Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, for the
United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference. The delegates deliberated
upon and signed the Bretton Woods Agreements during the first three weeks of
July 1944.
"By 1968, the attempt to defend the dollar at a fixed peg of $35/ounce, the
policy of the Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson administrations, had become
increasingly untenable. Gold outflows from the U.S. accelerated."
(ii) After the meeting at Breton Woods, the world was on gold standard: the
dollar was pegged at $35 per ounce of gold, and European and Japanese
currencies pegged against dollar. Mr. Connaly, Secretary of Finance under
Pres. Nixon basically said US did not give a damn (about debt, dollar
depreciation , tariff to be unilaterally imposed by US, and so on), and
forced the other currencies appreciate in two weeks.
My comment: 春江水曖鴨先知. (China has reported within the past two days
that garment and toy export from Guangdong has decreased by about 12% each
in the first eleven months of this year. I am not posting them (the news)
now, for in a few weeks, China will publish the yearly outcome for 2009.)
(2) Pradnya Joshi, Late to Export Arena, Vietnam Is Refining Its Role on the
Global Stage. New York Times, Dec. 27, 2009.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/25/business/global/25export.html?scp=1&sq=vietnam%20export&st=cse
("In order to square off against China, many manufacturers try to rely on
niche industries and specialties rather than competing solely on price or
low labor costs.")
My comment: "Vietnamese inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since
April as higher rice prices pushed up food costs while an accelerating
economy fueled domestic demand. Consumer prices in Vietnam rose 6.52 percent
this month [December] from a year earlier."
Jason Folkmanis, Vietnam’s Inflation Accelerates to Eight-Month High (
Update1). Bloomberg, Dec. 24, 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a_KGe_qw4ePs