标题: China May Need Babies, Too [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 4-25-2010 11:22 标题: China May Need Babies, Too 本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布
Alexa Olesen, Long-hated one-child rule may be eased in China. Associated
Press, Apr. 25, 2010.
http://hosted2.ap.org/FLJAJ/c9d240e3e96e4b9a8bfb27e9b3a7063c/Article_2010-04-25-AS-China-More-Than-One/id-1f1770ce41e443d5819b71d335b79c04
(A Chinese researcher wrote in an jounral, "Government control is no longer
necessary to maintain low fertility. A carefully planned relaxation of the
birth-control policy in China is unlikely to lead to an unwanted baby boom.")
Note:
(1) Dafeng (江苏省盐城市)大丰市
(2) The quotation above is from
Zheng ZZ, Yonh C; Wang F and Gu BC, Below-Replacement Fertility and
Childbearing Intention in Jiangsu Province, China. Asian Population Studies,
5, 329-347 (2009).
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a917991668?words=zheng|zhenzhen&hash=1022724277
(3) The AP report states,
"If that fertility rate holds, China's population will peak at 1.4 billion
in 2026 and then start shrinking, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. By
the end of this century, China's population would be cut almost in half to
750 million, according to a model developed by Wang Feng, a demographer at
the University of California, Irvine."
My comment: On the contrary, US will be the sole nation in developed world
that will see population in the next century.
Population projection in US is not straightforward, immigration being the X
factor (if US Congress will rewrite immigration laws, for example).
(a) Press release: Census Bureau Projects Doubling of Nation's Population by
2100. Census Bureau, Jan. 13, 2000.
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2000/cb00-05.html
("According to the projections, the nation's resident population 273 million
on July 1, 1999 is projected to reach 404 million in 2050 and 571 million
in 2100. These results are based on middle-level assumptions regarding
population growth during the century.")
(b) Press release: An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury. US Census
Bureau, Aug. 14, 2008.*
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/012496.html
("By 2050, the minority population — everyone except for non-Hispanic,
single-race whites — is projected to be 235.7 million out of a total U.S.
population of 439 million. The nation is projected to reach the 400 million
population milestone in 2039")
* The above link is found in
2009 National Population Projections (Supplemental)
http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2009projections.html
Here, you can click "Summary Tables" and reach a new web page, where you
click "Zero Net International Migration Series." US population will still
grow, even in absence of immigration.
(c) If China can not catch up with US in the total GDP (as opposed to GDP
per capita) in this century, it will never will.
(4) The AP report also cites
Li Xiaoping, We need to reduce, not increase, population. China Daily, Feb.
1, 2010.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2010-02/01/content_9404650.htm