标题: China’s Economic Future, a Few Years Down the Road [打印本页] 作者: choi 时间: 9-17-2013 15:47 标题: China’s Economic Future, a Few Years Down the Road (1) Tom Orlik, 雁田故事——中国经济的缩影. 华尔街日报中文版, Sept 17, 2013 http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20130917/chw133132.asp
, which is translated from
Tom Orlik, How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story; Yantian's challenges offer a microcosmic view of the problems facing China, where economic growth has fallen to 7.5% from 14.8% in 2007. Wall Street Journal, Sept 17, 2013 (front page; under the heading STRUGGLING GIANT).
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323595004579069211104494946.html
(a) Quote:
(i) on migrant workers:
"The number of migrant workers, who once flooded into Yantian for jobs, has also shrunk, by nearly half.
"Especially urgent, economists say, is the need to revise a system that ties access to social services for China’s 260 million migrant workers to their place of birth. Current rules require them to return home in order to access free health care, education, or other services. That system worked fine so long as there was another wave of young rural workers to replace them. Increasingly, that isn’t the case. The lack of support for migrant workers has caused an economic domino effect. Many of them rein in spending as they save money for basic services not covered by the state.
(ii) "Demographics are a large part of the shifting equation. China’s working-age population shrank in 2012, breaking a rising trend that stretched over the reform era of the past three decades, in large part because of a one-child policy that lowered birthrates. From 2010 to 2030, China’s labor force is expected to shrink by 67 million workers—more than the entire population of France—according to United Nations’ projections.
(iii) "The pileup of problems wasn’t immediately evident. To a large degree, they were masked after the global financial crisis as China poured trillions of dollars of credit into the economy. That infusion kept growth ticking with the construction of massive rail, road and other infrastructure systems. China’s economy has shown new signs of resilience lately—partly because a fresh serving of easy money earlier this year helped support strong data for industrial production and other key indicators.
(b) My comment:
(i) Do not forget the online “slideshow” of 15 slides.
Hard Times Come to Yantian. WSJ.com, Sept 17, 2013.
(ii) The only description about Yantian--identified in the report as "city"--is: "A strategic location an hour from Hong Kong and adjacent to Shenzhen—the location of a 'special economic zone' that was China’s first step into the global economy—created the perfect conditions for an export boom."
Yantian 广东省东莞市凤岗镇 雁田村 (zh.wikipedia.org: 南与深圳市平湖镇接壤)
(ii) For microcosmic (adj), see microcosm (n):
“something (such as a place or an event) that is seen as a small version of something much larger” www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/microcosm
(iii) "Mr Deng [Yantian's party secretary], who says he doesn’t put much stock in the rumored family connection, has nonetheless taken Deng Xiaoping’s adage on getting rich to heart"
stock (n): “confidence or faith placed in someone or something<put little stock in his testimony>” www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stock
(iv) “HU Biliang, an economics professor at Beijing Normal University” 胡必亮
(v) “Hideo AOYAGI, the general manager of a Japanese firm * * * Dongguan Shinano Motor Co”
青柳 秀雄/ 東莞信濃馬達有限公司 (in traditional Chinese at Hong Kong and Taiwan; シナノケンシ株式会社 in Japanese; global headquarters: Nagano Prefecture, Japan)
(A) “長野県の古名である信濃[国]は、古くは「科野」と記したが、シナノキ 科の木 http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%B7%E3%83%8A%E3%83%8E%E3%82%AD
を多く産出したからだともいわれている.”
translation: Nagano Prefecture in ancient time was Shinano Province, then written as 科野, meaning fields of shina-no-ki trees.
(B) The ja.wikipedia.org page for 信濃国 states evolution of names 科野 > 信野 >信濃--all three pronounced the same: shinanō.
(vi) “Kunki Electronics Co Ltd, which makes mobile phone and camera cases for the likes of Samsung and Panasonic. LIN Meihui, the 41-year-old head of the company”
君辉香港有限公司/ 林美辉
(vii) Migrat workers are pitiable. But Yantian’s loss is gain for migrant workers’ hometowns. For China as a whole, there is no gain or loss. Long term, it is China’s competitiveness, or lack thereof, that seals its fate. 作者: choi 时间: 9-17-2013 15:47
(2) Christina Passariello, Retailers Pick Bangladesh for Future; Survey shows apparel sellers rank the country ahead of Vietnam, Cambodia. Wall Street Journal, Sept 17, 2013. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... 79170905188130.html
two consecutive paragraphs:
“For now, China remains the world's largest garment producer by far, with more than $150 billion in annual exports. But its minimum wage is four times the $39 monthly base rate of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is tied with Italy for the No 2 spot for current exports [$20 billion each]; Italy is historically a major producer of fashion and accessories but is declining in importance. Eighty percent of the retailers participating in the survey plan on reducing their sourcing from China in the next five years, primarily because of rising labor costs.
Mr [Achim] Berg[, a partner in McKinsey's German office, and the author of the study,] conducted his poll of 29 European and American retailers representing global sourcing volume of $40 billion in July and August, not long after the April collapse of the Rana Plaza factory building near Dhaka, which killed more than 1,100 workers.