TSMC to 28 nm This Quarter

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

Ken Liu, TSMC Likely to Advance 28nm Production Schedule. CENS, Oct. 14, 2010.
http://cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_34054.html

Note:
(a) CENS stands for China Economic News Service  中國經濟通訊社.
http://www.cens.com/censv1/zh/aboutus.jsp
(中經社簡介: 簡稱中經社; 於1974年成立; 聯合報系的關係企業之一)
(b) Altera Corp.
http://www.altera.com/corporate/crp-index.html
(About Altera: Headquartered in Silicon Valley; the leader in innovative custom logic solutions; Innovative Technology: Working closely with our manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), we’re building the industry’s most advanced FPGA, CPLD, and ASIC technologies.)
               
My comment:
(a) FPGA: field-programmable gate array
CPLD: complex programmable logic device
ASIC: Application-specific integrated circuit
(b) By comparison, Intel just (yesterday) annonced that its 22-nm Ivy Bridge processor is slated to come out in the second half of next year, whereas 32-nm Sandy Bridge is due to appear in 1Q11. For the latter, see
Sandy Bridge (microarchitecture)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Bridge_(microarchitecture)


-----------------------Separately
(1) Jackson Chang and Frances Huang, Taiwan will continue to lead foundry business: UMC ex-chief. Central News Agency, Oct. 11, 2010.         
http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type=aALL&ID=201010110010
(Robert "Tsao said that GlobalFoundries will largely expand its production capacity in the U.S., rather than in its Asian complex in Singapore, and that he doubts the U.S. production facilities will be efficient enough to compete with Taiwan")

(2) Anton Shilov, Globalfoundries Expects $3.5 Billion Revenues in 2010. X-bit Laboratories, Oct. 18, 2010.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20101018233216_Globalfoundries_Expects_3_5_Billion_Revenues_in_2010.html
("Industry analysts expect UMC's 2010 revenues to be in the range of $3.92 billion, which means that Globalfoundries will not be significantly behind its slightly larger rival")

(3) Philip Wong, AMD Fusion chip becomes reality. CNET, Oct. 20, 2010.
http://asia.cnet.com/reviews/pcperipherals/0,39051168,62203807,00.htm
(CPU and GPU into one)



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choi

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Does Moore's law has limitations?

(1) First off, I am a biologist by training. I did take physics 101 in college, but never took quantum physics, to my eternal regret.

(2) When I prepared the original posting, I read this though I did not cite it (but this report is the basis of my statement regrading Intel announcement--"yesterday").

Brooke Crothers, A peek into the future of Intel processors. CNET, Oct. 19, 2010.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-20020078-64.html
(15 nm in the lab)

(3) About your question, first let's hear what the namesake of the law has to say (he did not explain on record). It is far off (a decade or so away), and there may be breakthroughs by then.

Manek Dubash, Moore's Law is dead, says Gordon Moore; Key predictor of IT will end sometime, reckons its progenitor.  Techworld, May 13, 2005.
http://news.techworld.com/operating-systems/3477/moores-law-is-dead-says-gordon-moore/
(Mr. Moore: "In terms of size [of transistor] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far - but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit.")

(i) I wish to remind you that since 2005 "two or three generatios" have actually been accomplished in this period, as Moore's Law had predicted.
(ii) This interview was cited in
Moore's law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

(iiii) This is his last prediction. Why? Read on.

Jonathan Fildes, Meeting the man behind Moore's Law. BBC<
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7080646.stm

Quote:

"In the article in Electronics Magazine, he predicted that the number of transistors on a silicon chip would double every year for ten years. He later revised the forecast to doubling every two years or so, as the initial breakneck speed of development and shrinkage waned.

"So what does he think will happen in the next 40 years? 'I'm through with making predictions,' he chuckles. 'Get it right once and quit.'


(4) However, one need not be a quantum physicist to comprehend the theory that Moore's law will hit a wall sometimes.

Dana Blankenhorn, Moore’s Law reaches its limit with quantum dot amplifier. Smart Planet, May 25, 2010.
http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/thinking-tech/moores-law-reaches-its-limit-with-quantum-dot-amplifier/4219/
("But there has to be a limit. The atomic scale. You can’t make a circuit smaller than an atom. The limit has been reached.")

* Not really, in my opinion as a layperson. See the right table in
Atom
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atom
(Diameter range: 62 pm (He) to 520 pm (Cs))

(5) Attempts have been made to circumvent the limitations.

(a) US military to attack Moore's Law for future computers. BBC, Aug. 10, 2010.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-10924841

Note:
(i) The report did not talk about solutions. Come on, this is military secrets.
(ii) quintillion: base 10 and exponent 18, or 10 to the 18
(iii) The BBC report mentioned "current top supercomputers which manage just over one petaflop - 1000 trilliion calculations per second," which is 10 to the 15.

* peta-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peta-

Click "exa" in this web page.

* FLOPS: FLoating point OPerations per Second

(iii) The BBC report also state, "The limitations of that approach are the mushrooming power, management and structural issues that crop up as components shrink."

To which one should add cost of building a foundry, which balloons too with successive generations.

(b) Bill Dally, Life After Moore's Law; It's time for the computing industry to take the leap into parallel processing. Forbes, Apr. 29, 2010.
http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/29/moores-law-computing-processing-opinions-contributors-bill-dally.html
(the writer is Nvidia VP)

(c) Addy Dugdale, Quantum Computing Gets a Step Closer With Seven-Atom Transistor. The Fast Company, May 24, 2010.
http://www.fastcompany.com/1651617/quantum-computing-gets-a-step-closer-with-seven-atom-transistor

【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: Ken Liu, TSMC Likely to Advance 28nm Production Schedule. CENS, Oct. 14, 2010.
: http://cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_34054.html
: Note:
: (a) CENS stands for China Economic News Service  中國經濟通訊社.
: (以下引言省略...)

--
※ 来源:．一路BBS http://yilubbs.com [FROM: 129.10.0.0]

※ 修改:．choi 于 Oct 20 15:40:45 修改本文．[FROM: 129.10.0.0]

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

My original posting did not imply either is better. The report about TSMC
does not say if 28-nm fabrication will be commercial/mass production. And
you are aware of the fact that TSMC encountered difficulties in 45-nm, and
the then CEO lost his job.*

* On Oct. 6, 2010 Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang denied rumor and said Nvidia "
Won't Have Globalfoundries Make Tegra, [but] Sticks to TSMC." (headline of a
report).

【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: Does Moore's law has limitations?
: (1) First off, I am a biologist by training. I did take physics 101 in college, but never took quantum physics, to my eternal regret.
: (2) When I prepared the original posting, I read this though I did not cite it (but this report is the basis of my statement regrading Intel announcem
: (以下引言省略...)

--

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

发信人: choi (choi), 信区: Hardware
标  题: Re: TSMC to 28nm this quarter
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 25 16:10:35 2010, 美东)

I am not an expert on semiconductor.

So this is what I am going to say.

TSMC is sending out 28-nm with high-k metal gate (HKMG) technology (in 4Q10).

(1) Bogdan Botezatu, Intel and TSMC Go for Advanced High-k Technology.
Softpedia, Dec. 13, 2007.
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Intel-And-TSMC-Go-For-Advanced-High-k-Technology-73742.shtml
("The International Electron Devices Meeting surely was a good place for
Intel to boast their newest technological breakthrough. The company have
described their 45-nanometer logic technology, the first to integrate in
high-volume manufacturing process high-k/metal gate transistors. They were
not the only ones however to achieve spectacular results, as Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) also reported successful results, but
on a 32-nanometer architecture")

(2) Bohr, MT, Chau RS, Ghani T and Mistry K, The High-k Solution;
Microprocessors coming out this fall are the result of the first big
redesign in CMOS transistors since the late 1960s.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/design/the-highk-solution/0
(read only paragraph immediately following the heading "Of course, we weren'
t alone")

The graphic in this web page is too small, but other documents within and
without Intel indicates Intel shipped out 45-nm chip (code-named Penryn) of
HKMG technology in 4Q07. I disagree with the following report to the extent
that Intel has shipped TWO generations of high-k. In my opinion, only one
generation, at 45-nm (32-nm is expected in 1Q11).

(3) Mark LaPedus, IBM 'fab club' denies problems with high-k. Sept. 27, 2010.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4208861/IBM--fab-club--denies-problems-with-high-k-semiconductor

Quote:

"Intel Corp., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) and others
have moved towards ''gate-last'' technology. Intel has been shipping
processors based on high-k since the 45-nm node. Intel has shipped two
generations of high-k. TSMC has yet to ship its technology.  

"In contrast, IBM's 'fab club' is using a 'gate-first' technology. But to
date, IBM's technology partners [including Infineon, NEC, Globalfoundries,
Samsung, STMicroelectronics and Toshiba] have yet to ship high-k--at least
in chips in mass volumes.



【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: My original posting did not imply either is better. The report about TSMC
: does not say if 28-nm fabrication will be commercial/mass production. And
: you are aware of the fact that TSMC encountered difficulties in 45-nm, and
: the then CEO lost his job.*
: (以下引言省略...)

--

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

What is k?

High-k dielectric
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-k_dielectric
(dielectric constant κ)

【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: 发信人: choi (choi), 信区: Hardware
: 标  题: Re: TSMC to 28nm this quarter
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 25 16:10:35 2010, 美东)
: I am not an expert on semiconductor.
: So this is what I am going to say.
: TSMC is sending out 28-nm with high-k metal gate (
: (以下引言省略...)

--

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

发信人: choi (choi), 信区: Hardware
标  题: Re: TSMC to 28nm this quarter
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 25 16:10:35 2010, 美东)

I am not an expert on semiconductor.

So this is what I am going to say.

TSMC is sending out 28-nm with high-k metal gate (HKMG) technology (in 4Q10).

(1) Bogdan Botezatu, Intel and TSMC Go for Advanced High-k Technology.
Softpedia, Dec. 13, 2007.
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Intel-And-TSMC-Go-For-Advanced-High-k-Technology-73742.shtml
("The International Electron Devices Meeting surely was a good place for
Intel to boast their newest technological breakthrough. The company have
described their 45-nanometer logic technology, the first to integrate in
high-volume manufacturing process high-k/metal gate transistors. They were
not the only ones however to achieve spectacular results, as Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) also reported successful results, but
on a 32-nanometer architecture")

(2) Bohr, MT, Chau RS, Ghani T and Mistry K, The High-k Solution;
Microprocessors coming out this fall are the result of the first big
redesign in CMOS transistors since the late 1960s.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/design/the-highk-solution/0
(read only paragraph immediately following the heading "Of course, we weren'
t alone")

The graphic in this web page is too small, but other documents within and
without Intel indicates Intel shipped out 45-nm chip (code-named Penryn) of
HKMG technology in 4Q07. I disagree with the following report to the extent
that Intel has shipped TWO generations of high-k. In my opinion, only one
generation, at 45-nm (32-nm is expected in 1Q11).

(3) Mark LaPedus, IBM 'fab club' denies problems with high-k. Sept. 27, 2010.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4208861/IBM--fab-club--denies-problems-with-high-k-semiconductor

Quote:

"Intel Corp., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) and others
have moved towards ''gate-last'' technology. Intel has been shipping
processors based on high-k since the 45-nm node. Intel has shipped two
generations of high-k. TSMC has yet to ship its technology.  

"In contrast, IBM's 'fab club' is using a 'gate-first' technology. But to
date, IBM's technology partners [including Infineon, NEC, Globalfoundries,
Samsung, STMicroelectronics and Toshiba] have yet to ship high-k--at least
in chips in mass volumes.



【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: My original posting did not imply either is better. The report about TSMC
: does not say if 28-nm fabrication will be commercial/mass production. And
: you are aware of the fact that TSMC encountered difficulties in 45-nm, and
: the then CEO lost his job.*
: (以下引言省略...)

--

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

What is k?

High-k dielectric
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-k_dielectric
(dielectric constant κ)

【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: 发信人: choi (choi), 信区: Hardware
: 标  题: Re: TSMC to 28nm this quarter
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 25 16:10:35 2010, 美东)
: I am not an expert on semiconductor.
: So this is what I am going to say.
: TSMC is sending out 28-nm with high-k metal gate (
: (以下引言省略...)

--