Number of Missiles Needed to Render Taiwan Runways Unusable

choi

(1) On Mar 4, 2016 National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS), Ministry of Defense, Japan released an annual report in three languages:
English: China Security Report 2016; The expanding scope of PLA activities and the PLA strategy
Japanese: 中国安全保障レポート 2016; 拡大する人民解放軍の活動範とその戦略  ["レポート" is katakana for "report"]
Chinese: 中国安全战略报告2016; 扩大的人民解放军的活动范围与其战略.
www.nids.go.jp/english/publication/chinareport/

In the English version, Chapter 3 at pages 47-48 states,

"Hitting a target accurately is very important to operations using conventional missiles. According to a report by the RAND Corporation of the United States, analysis of differences in efficiency according to a missile's target accuracy and assuming that China uses conventional short-range ballistic missiles to attack two points on a Taiwan runway which is 3.050 meters long and 46 meters wide to render it unusable, it would require thirty to forty missiles with a circular error probable (CEP) of 200 to 300 meters to accomplish this goal. If the missiles have a CEP of under ten meters, pn;u a few will be required to make the runway unusable.37

Where footnote 37 is:
David A Shlapak, David T Orletsky, Toy I Reid, Murray Scott Tanner and Barry Wilson, A Question of Balance: Political and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica: Rand Corp, 2009, pp 31-51.

* I double check and his first name is indeed Toy, not Troy.

(2) At the time I did not read the content of that report. I still do not. But here is an alternative.

David Shlapak, Does China Have Taiwan in a Strait Jacket? With China-Taiwan relations nowhere near to being resolved, China's brand-new ballistic missiles are looking scarier than ever. Foreign Policy, Oct 2, 2009.
oreignpolicy.com/2009/10/02/does-china-have-taiwan-in-a-strait-jacket/

Three consecutive paragraphs:

"A recent report that I coauthored with my RAND colleagues closely examines how China's new SRBMs [short-ranged ballistic missiles] could be used against Taiwan’s air bases, assessing how many missiles of a given accuracy, carrying appropriate submunition warheads, would be needed to temporarily close every runway at each of Taiwan's 10 primary fighter bases.

"Accuracy is measured by a missile's circular error probable (CEP), which is the radius of a circle around the target where 50 percent of the missiles fired will fall. Missiles with CEPs of 700-1,000ft (200-300m), accuracies characteristic of China's older SRBMs, are practically useless for attacking runways; they simply aren’t sufficiently precise.

"With smaller CEPs, however, such as the ones China is believed to be stockpiling, the job starts looking doable. With an accuracy of 130ft (40m), 200 SRBMs are needed. With very accurate missiles — with CEPs of 16ft (5m) — only 60 are required.

Note: circular error probable
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable