劳动力有效供给每15年减1亿: 中国

choi

Robyn Dixon, Chinese Millennials Are Rejecting Dull Factory Jobs — and Transforming the Economy. Los Angeles Times, May 11, 2019
https://www.latimes.com/world/la ... 20190512-story.html
("With an aging population, the workforce is predicted to shrink rapidly — by 100 million every 15 years from 2020 — according to National Committee of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. In the meantime, factory bosses are caught short in finding adequate employees, as some factories automate more quickly than others")

My comment:
(a) I can not blame anyone who does not want a monotonous job. What jolts me in this report is what is quoted above. Its link leads to

Zhang Hui and Yin Han, Rare Study From Top Advisory Body Shows [population Issue a 'National crisis.' Global Times, July 16, 2018
www.globaltimes.cn/content/1111080.shtml  

five consecutive paragraphs:

"The labor supply of China will continue to decrease. It is estimated that the working population of the country will be 631 million in 2020, and the number will drop to 523 million in 2035, and 424 million in 2050, said a survey from the population commission of the National Committee of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

"The survey, which lasted one month and ended in June, said that the fast developing AI technology of China can help solve the problems brought by the shrinking labor force.

"The survey, which was rare in its kind, showed that more government agencies have realized the sustained low fertility rate in the country, demographic expert Huang Wenzheng told the Global Times.

"The survey, published in a report of a newspaper affiliated with the CPPCC, found that the total number of births in East China's Shandong Province, where residents "have the greatest wish to have a second child," actually dropped in 2017 compared to that in 2016.

"The report attributed the main reason to people's worries that they financially 'couldn't afford a second child' although they are willing to have one.

(b) "a newspaper affiliated with the CPPCC." This brings me to
廉维亮, 人口三问——全国政协 '中长期人口变动与经济社会发展' 专题调研综述. 人民政协报, July 3, 2018, 08版epaper.rmzxb.com/detail.aspx?id=426317
https://epaper.rmzxb.com/detail.aspx?id=426317

Quote:

(i) "国家统计局数据显示，2017年末我国总人口13.90亿人，就业人员总数7.76亿人。根据分析，未来一个时期，我国劳动力供给将保持高位但规模持续减少，同时结构将发生深刻变化。预计到2020年、2035年、2050年，劳动力有效供给将分别为6.31亿人、5.23亿人、4.24亿人。

(ii) "■二孩，如何让 '想生' 的群众 '敢生'？

"自2016年全面放开二孩,实施一对夫妇可生育两个孩子政策以来，中国的人口增长明显加快。国家统计局根据1‰人口变动抽样调查，推算2016年、2017年全国出生人口分别为1786万、1723万，高于 '十二五' 时期年均出生人口1644万的水平，是新世纪以来的最高水平。其中二孩出生增长显著，二孩出生占比从2013年前的36%左右提升到2017年的51%。

"调研组所到的山东省，是生育二孩意愿最旺盛的省份之一，群众对生育政策调整响应积极，2017年总和生育率达到2.1左右，二孩出生占比高达69.4%。政策带来的集中生育效应也并非持续增长，2017年山东的出生人口较之2016年有所回落，在 '愿意生' 带来的生育热潮下，群众也有着 '敢不敢生' 的思量。