Russo-Ukrainian War

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Today's news first.

(1)  锺广政, 俄军首用匕首极音速飞弹　美防长指俄战术错误连连. RFA, Mar 19, 2022.
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/ru-missile-03192022085502.html



Note:
(a) "俄乌战事第24日，俄罗斯国防部表示，俄军动用最新的「匕首」（Kinzhal）极音速飞弹摧毁乌克兰西部一个军火库，这是俄国这款新武器首次于实战动用。  俄罗斯过去从没承认在实战里用过这款高精准武器。俄罗斯新闻社（RIA）报道，俄军在这次侵乌「特殊军事行动」，首度将「匕首」极音速飞弹用于实战。「匕首」飞弹能以音速10倍速度飞行，能击中2000公里外的目标，并且可以突破所有防空系统。"
(i) RIA Novosti reported, the source being 俄罗斯国防部.

"RIA means Russian Information Agency and Novosti means News in Russian."  en.wiktionary.org for "RIA Novosti."
(ii) Russian-English dictionary:
* кинжал (noun masculine’ romanization: kinžál): "dagger"  (photo)
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/кинжал
* новости (noun feminine; romanization: nobosti; itself plural): "news (especially, radio or television program)
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/новости

(b) "美国国防部长奥斯汀（Lloyd Austin）在保加利亚接受美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）主播勒蒙（Don Lemon）专访时表示，俄军推进的距离和速度 不如他们的期望。  奥斯汀说，俄军的「后勤补给困难」，同时并无证据显示，俄军「善用战术情报」或将「空中战力与地面兵力运用加以整合」。  
他表示：「许多预期会看到的东西都没有出现。俄军真的出现了一些问题。因此，他们开战时的许多战况想必都失准。」  奥斯汀认为，俄方的设想是快速推进，非常迅速攻占基辅，但他们没能做到。"

Don Lemon Tonight. Aired March 18, 2022 - 23:00 ET. CNN, undated (categorized in "Transcripts")
https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnnt/date/2022-03-18/segment/02

Quote:

(i) "THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(ii) "[23:25:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON (on camera): That is the Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin being welcomed in Novo Selo Training Area in Bulgaria right before we sat down for an exclusive interview [Don Lemon was in Bulgarian capital of Sofia when interviewing Secretary Austin in person]. Here is more of what Pentagon chief had to say about Putin's war in Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: The U.S. has made it clear that they don't want to be involved in the process of giving jets to Ukraine. Now, do you support other countries doing it or even encouraging other countries to do it as long as there is no U.S. Involvement?

AUSTIN: Don, what other countries do, I mean, that's their choice. And the United States certainly doesn't stand in the way of other countries providing assistance. But again, we're going to remain focused on those things that we know are making a difference. And what's making a difference in this fight for the Ukrainians is the provision of anti-aircraft systems, the provision of armored -- anti- armored systems, and also things -- other things that have been effective for the deployment of drones.

And so, you've heard the president say most recently what we're -- what we're doing, the kinds of things we're providing. He just -- we just signed -- just provided authorization for us to provide an additional billion dollars --

LEMON: Billion dollars.

AUSTIN: -- worth of security force assistance. That's remarkable.

LEMON: What is your assessment of Russian forces now? Are they stalled? Are they regrouping so that they can increase their assault or increase their violence on Ukraine? What's your assessment of the Russian military?

AUSTIN: It's hard to tell, Don. I think, you know, they have not progressed as far -- as quickly as they would have liked to. They -- I think they envisioned that they would move rapidly and very quickly seize the capital city. They've not been able to do that. They've struggled with logistics. So, we've seen a number of missteps along the way.

I don't see, you know, evidence of good employment of tactical intelligence. I don't see integration of, you know, air capability with the ground maneuver. And so, there are a number of things we would expect to have seen.

[23:30:00]

I don't see integration of, you know, air capability with the ground, ground maneuver.

And so, there are a number of things that we would expect to have seen that we haven't seen. And the Russians really have had some, have presented them some problems. So, many of their assumptions have not -- have not proven to be true as they -- as they entered this fight. So.

LEMON: The president is speaking with Xi Jinping and we are getting reporting that Russia has been asking China for drones and for help. What happens? Do you think China will stay out of this and what happens if they don't?

AUSTIN: Well, again, I don't want to speculate or get involved in hypotheticals. I would -- I would hope that China would not support this despicable act by Putin. I would hope that they would -- they would recognize a need to respect sovereign territory. And so, hard to say what they will do, but, you know, we have been clear that if they do that, you know, we think that's a bad choice.

(END VIDEOTAPE)"

(c) "美国海军陆战队司令柏格（David Berger）接受华盛顿邮报（Washington Post）访问时指出，俄军在乌克兰境内的多个战线停滞，应该会让共军负责作战设想的参谋，慎思横渡台湾海峡对台发动两栖登陆作战。因为两栖登陆作战「绝非易如反掌，并非一蹴可及」。  
柏格表示，北大西洋公约组织（NATO）对于入侵的快速反应，也应会使得中方有所顾忌；对于中国在印太地区构成的危胁及恫吓，美国在太平洋的坚定同盟和夥伴日益关切，这也是北京当局展开军事行动前务必三思。"

Transcript: The Path Forward: Gen David H Berger. Washington Post, Mar 16, 2022.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/w ... gen-david-h-berger/

Quote:

(i) "MR IGNATIUS: Welcome to Washington Post Live. I'm David Ignatius, a columnist at The Post. Our guest today is General David Berger, the commandant of the US Marine Corps.

(ii) "GEN BERGER: Great question. A couple thoughts. First, I think during a conflict, it's difficult to draw all of the deeper lessons learned. So some, of course, will come over time and with deeper analysis. * * * before someone were to talk about the Russian forces and how they are doing, I think you have to begin with the Ukrainian forces and how well they are doing, and beginning with the information competition, the information space, which I would say Ukraine is winning.  They're also using the what we would call in military terms the strength of the defense, the inherent strength of the defense over the offense. Not a new concept. Since World War I [it has been] proven very difficult to break through a defense in depth, especially if that defense in depth is well-prepared, well-trained. And that can be whether it's land or foreign, a naval environment. * * *  I would begin first of all with Ukraine and how well their forces are doing. I think they're proving to be very disciplined, very well-trained [US has been advised and trained Ukraine military in Ukraine since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea] , very well-led, and now very inspired.

(iii) "MR IGNATIUS: One other thing, General Berger, that I've heard military analysts discuss is the seeming problem in taking initiative at what we would think of as the NCO level. Everybody's seen the aerial pictures of the long, 40-mile-long convoy that's appeared stuck. And some people have noted that it takes initiative, say from a sergeant, to say I've got to get out of this line, we're stuck here, and to move off the road and into a place where there's more shelter, maneuvering room, but that it comes down to that NCO level decision making. Do you think that's a factor in what we're seeing?

(iv) "MR IGNATIUS: * * * You've got a concept that you call 'stand in forces' as opposed to traditional expeditionary forces that stand off and then come into the battlespace when needed. You're talking now about stand in forces that are closer. Maybe for our viewers who are less familiar with these issues, you could just summarize some of the thinking that you've been doing about this theater, how the Marines might operate in these inner island chains, if we ever got in a situation, heaven forbid, of military conflict with China.

(v) "MR IGNATIUS: I want to ask you, General Berger, about a critique that a retired combat Marine named Bing West, who writes often about military issues, wrote in the National Review this past month, writing about what he described as your anti-ship strategy operating in the event of conflict with China in the inner island chain. And he said that he was concerned that the strategy might be flawed because the Chinese in his words have pivoted toward Taiwan, that the Ukraine conflict shows that aggressors can pick the battlespace where they want to fight. * * *

"GEN BERGER: I have a tremendous amount of respect for Bing West. Most of us have read his writings for many years and talked with him because he thinks on operational to strategic, all the way down to the tactical level. So, the debate, the discussion of warfare in general is a healthy one.

Subnote:
(i)
(A) Washington Post Live is a (video) podcast.
(B) Commandant of the Marine Corps

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commandant_of_the_Marine_Corps  
("CMC reports directly to the secretary of the Navy. * * * The commandant is nominated for appointment by the president, for a four-year term of office,[3] and must be confirmed by the Senate")
(ii)
(A) defence in depth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth
(also known as deep defence)
(B) Chap 6 Defense, Withdrawal, and Relief. at page 6-1. In The Soviet Army; Operations and Tactics. US Department of Army, 1984 (Field Manual 'FM [No] 100-2-1')
https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm100-2-1.pdf
("Soviets consider the offensive as the only means to achieve decisive victory. * * * During World War II, entire theaters [in Soviet Union] were on the defense. Extremely dense defenses sometimes were developed, consisting of three or more static defensive belts with the majority of the combat forces deployed in the first defensive belt.
(iii) NCO = noncommissioned officer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-commissioned_officer
("by promotion through the enlisted ranks. * * * In contrast, commissioned officers usually enter directly from a military academy. * * * In the [United States] Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps, all ranks of sergeant are termed NCOs, as are corporals in the Army and Marine Corps")
()
(A) Marine Corps Publishes New Concept Titled 'A Concept for Stand-in Forces." US Marine Corps, Dec 1, 2021.
https://www.marines.mil/News/Pre ... or-stand-in-forces/
(B) Burger was diplomatic about deflecting the critique of Bing West
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bing_West   
(1940- ; "Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs during the Reagan Administration [1981-1983]")

Bing West, Ukraine's Tragedy Should Refocus the US Marine Corps. National Review, Mar 13. 2021
https://www.nationalreview.com/c ... e-u-s-marine-corps/
("A few years ago, policy-makers advocated a “pivot” to the Pacific, concerned that China was building forts on atolls in the South China Sea. The commandant of the Marine Corps immediately proclaimed a counter. Small groups of Marines would move into unoccupied islands in the South China Sea, after receiving permission from the host nations. From those islands, they could then fire missiles to sink Chinese warships. * * * Three mortal flaws in this anti-ship strategy have since emerged. First, the Chinese forts are now yesterday’s newspaper. China has “pivoted” toward Taiwan, far out of range of Marine missiles in the South China Sea. The Marines are out of position")

What Mr West meant is: If and when China invades Taiwan, its (China's) military's presence will be rare. and US marines on the unpopulated islands in South China Sea will be in the wrong places.

choi

(2) The website of US Department of Defense does not have a transcript of Don Lemon's interview of Secretary of Austn. However, the website does have

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J Austin III and Slovakia Minister of Defense Jaroslav Nad' Hold A Press Conference, Bratislava, Slovakia, March 17, 2022. US Department of Defense, Mar 17, 2022 ( "").
https://www.defense.gov/News/Tra ... -of-defense-jarosl/

Quote:

(i) "SLOVAKIA MINISTER OF DEFENSE JAROSLAV NAD' (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): * * * the visit of the Secretary of Defense, Mr Lloyd Austin, is the first visit of the U.S. Secretary of Defense in the last 20 years. Before, it was Secretary Rumsfeld that visited Slovakia. I'm very happy that Secretary Austin accepted my invitation that I handed over to him back in October at Pentagon, and he came so that we have an opportunity to discuss, really, a whole range of important issues that are related to the defense of Slovakia, the defense of the eastern flank of the [NATO] alliance, and also, the situation in Ukraine.

(ii) "SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD AUSTIN [in reply to a reporter's question about no-fly zone] * * * in order to control the skies, you have to shut down the air defenses that are on the ground and some of those air defense systems are in Russia. And, so again, there's no easy or simple way to do this. No, there's no such thing as a no-fly zone light. A no fly zone means that you're in a conflict with Russia. * * *

(iii) "Q. ROBERT BURNS, AP: [Slovakia's S-300] * * * Russians have increasingly used long range missiles to attack population centers in Ukraine, as you mentioned, are there alternatives to the S-300 to help Ukraine in that long range air defense arena? * * *   

"SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD AUSTIN: You´re right, Bob, the systems that are being used to by the Russians to engage Ukrainian forces currently, they're using a lot of rockets and missiles and artillery. And so, there are a number of things that can be used to counter that. We've seen that drones have been very effective [to identify locations of artilleries, etc]. We've also seen having the ability to conduct counter fire, with rockets and in artillery is also very effective.

"And so I think increasingly, we'll see the Ukrainian forces turn to those methods to counter that. The rockets, are actually cruise missiles that you mentioned, that were fired from aerial platforms, I think you know that those were fired from actually inside of Russia, so a no-fly zone would not have prevented that activity.

"MINISTER OF DEFENSE OF THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC JAROSLAV NAĎ: * * * So what would happen immediately when we decided to give it to Ukrainians is that we actually create a gap, a security gap in NATO. So you know, and I'm, first of all, I'm the Defense Minister of Slovakia. My first responsibility is to take on or to do everything I am capable of to guarantee defense and security of our people in our territory.

choi

(3) Thomas Grove and Stephen Fidler, How Russia's revamped military fumbled the invasion of Ukraine. Wall Street Journal, Mar 18, 2022, at oage A1.

Quote:

"The [Russian] dead included four Russian generals—one-fifth of the number estimated to be in Ukraine—along with other senior commanders, according to a Western official and Ukrainian military reports. The generals were close to the front lines, some Western officials said, a sign that lower ranks in forward units were likely unable to make decisions or fearful of advancing.  Russian troops turned to using open telephone and analog radios following the failure of encrypted communications systems, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry has said, making them vulnerable to intercept or jamming.

"The movement of troops in bumper-to-bumper convoys is a clear sign of 'soldiers who are untrained or undisciplined,' said retired US Army Lt Gen Ben Hodges, a former commander of US Army forces in Europe and now chair in strategic studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington. 'You need sergeants or NCOs constantly telling them to spread out. * * * '

"Poor logistics have hindered the advance of the Russians, who [traditionally, but not in this war] use primarily railways to move men and material, the military analysts said. Russia's failure to take the cities around Ukraine's crucial railway junctions have forced the Russians to travel by road, leaving them easy targets.

"Part of the problem has been the deployment of units from Russia’s eastern and central military districts, which have been secondary priorities in Russia’s military modernization, to advance on and surround Kyiv. The 90th tank division from the 41st combined arms army has brought with it less advanced T-72A -rather than more recent T-90s= and B tanks, designed in the 1980s, said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think tank.

Note: There is no need to read the rest.



(4) Plotr Butowski, Russian Air Forces: Ramped Up and Ready, Aviation Week, Feb 21 2022.

the first paragraph: "If Russia decides to attack Ukraine, its air fore will not have to fly very far. The two military districts adjacent to Ukraine contain 60% of Russia's tactical military aviation, according to an Aviation Week analysis. * * *

The last section: "[sectional heading] WHAT'S ON THE OTHER SIDE?  Ukraine's armed forces began a transformation after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. * * * The country has acquired new weapons, including Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey.

"The air forces, however, are still using Soviet-era systems. For 30 years after the collapse of the USSR, the Ukrainian Air Forces did not receive a single new combat aircraft and repaired and modernized only former Soviet equipment.  

Ukraine has about 125 combat-capable aircraft, including 37 MiG-29 Fulcrum and 84 Su-27 Flanker fighters, 31 Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft, 14 Su-24M Fencer D tactical bombers and nine SU-24MR Fencer E reconnaissance aircraft. Its rotorcraft include about 35 Mi-35 Hind combat helicopters and more than 50 transport helicopters.

Note: The invasion began on Feb 24, 2022.