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(1) South Korea's economy | Kindred Seoul; South Korea's economy is close to becoming like Japan's.
https://www.economist.com/financ ... -become-like-japans
Note:
(a) The title of this article in table of contents is "South Korea japanfies."
(b) jeonse 傳貰
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeonse
("Instead of paying monthly rent, a renter will make a lump-sum deposit on a rental space, at anywhere from 50% to 80% of the market value * * * when a lease is signed. * * * In 2014, it was reported that the average cost of a Jeonse in Seoul equals to almost $300,000 USD. * * * the lease, which is usually 2 years. Utilities and other costs (water, gas, electricity, cable, phone, internet, security) are applied for and paid by the tenant. The landlord makes a return by taking the deposit money and investing it and keeping all interest earned on the deposit. The tenant's deposit is protected by having a lien issued against the property for the amount given. The entire deposit is then returned to the tenant at the end of the lease")
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paragraph 3: "Super-expensive houses have become a major issue in South Korea's tight presidential election, which takes place on Mar 9th. * * *
paragraph 5: "There is no specific threshold beyond which the value of all land in a country, relative to the size of its economy, suggests asset prices are unsustainable. But the ratio for South Korea is both high by international standards and relative to the country's recent history. It now runs at five times its GDP, up from around four times in 2013. At the peak [1991, 2 years after stock exchange crash] of Japan's folly, the value of all land rose to 5.4 time GDP, before collapsing through the 1990s.
paragraph 6: "Pricking South Korea's apparent bubble would be less dangerous had liabilities not risen in tandem with asset values. South Koren people and firms have been borrowing at a frantic pace. In September last year the country;s household debt stood at 107% of its GDP, compared with 58% in Germany and 79% in America. Non-financial corporate debt runs to 114%, above the average for advanced economies.
paragraph 7: "This, too, recalls 1980s Japan -- and not in a good way. * * * During Japan's boom years, asset values and liabilities surged together. When its land-and-stoick bubble burst, asset values crumbled, but borrowers still had the same liabilities to repay. That left them in a state of negative equity. As firms and households all rushed to deleverage [reduce debts], the economy shrunk. ;Individually they were doing the right thing. Collectively they were destroying the economy [by tightening the belt and not spending],' says Mr [Ricghard] Koo [of Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo].
paragraph 9: " * * * South Korea was one of the first major economies to raise interest rates during the pandemic, and has now done so three times. * * * [Korea's] central bank has said it it is concerned about both rising inflation [US Fed Reserve did so for this reason. not not the next reason] and the financial-stability risk posed by soaring asset values. Yet again, this has a 1980s flavour: Japan's troubles began when the central bank started raising rates rapidly to pop the country's asset bibble.
paragraph 10: " * * * As a result of tricter credit controls [by raising rates] introduced to cool down property prices, mortgage interest rates are accelerating faster than benchmark ones. After surging through pre-pandemic levels, they flirted with decade-highs in January.
paragraph 11: "The parallel has limits. Japan's financial institutions are famously poorly regulated, leaving policymakers constantly surprised by the level of damage done to the financial system as crises popped up repeatedly through the 1990s. South Korea's unusual jeonse credit system, through which households borrow to fund lump-sum rental payments, make it difficult to assess how risky household debt truly is.
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发表于 3-30-2022 13:22:47
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