In Japan, Plummeting University Enrollment Forecasts What's Ahead for the US

choi

Jon Marcus, In Japan, Plummeting University Enrollment Forecasts What's Ahead for the US. Hechinger Report, Apr 18, 2023.
https://hechingerreport.org/in-j ... -ahead-for-the-u-s/
https://www.minnpost.com/other-n ... -ahead-for-the-u-s/

Quote:

"The number of 18-year-olds here [in Japan] has dropped by nearly half in just three decades, from more than 2 million in 1990 to 1.1 million now. It's projected to further decline to 880,000 by 2040, according to the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. * * * This is projected to worsen an already unprecedented slide in US college and university enrollment, which fell by more than 11 percent, or 2.4 million students, from 2010 through this year. [The two sentences (in this quotation) which I select from different parts of this article, are apple and orange. The first sentence is about 18-year-olds, and the second, number of college student (of all ages, part-time and full- ).]

In Japan: "Where the average proportion of [university] applicants accepted in 1991 was six in 10, Japanese universities today take more than nine out of 10, the education ministry says.

"The US birthrate — the number of live births per 1,000 women — has been falling steadily [to keep population steady (around the same); adding immigration, US population still grows] * * *

"There's been a particular toll in Japan on 'tanki daigaku [短期大学; 短大 for short; at the end of two years receive 短期大学士],' or junior colleges. Just like American community colleges, to which they're roughly equivalent, Japanese junior colleges have borne the bulk of the enrollment decline; 267 of them closed or merged between 1996 and 2018, out of a total of 598.   Many students in Japan who once would have gone to junior colleges — especially women, for whom more professional opportunities requiring four-year degrees have opened — are choosing instead to enroll at four-year universities. That’s one thing that has so far kept their [4-year university's] enrollment from declining more than it has.   Another: While the number of 18-year-olds is falling, the proportion pursuing higher education has increased to 81 percent.  That's much higher than the 62 percent of American high school graduates who the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports go directly to college. And rather than going up, as it has in Japan, the ratio of US high school graduates heading straight to college has been going down, from a high of 70 percent in 2016.


Note:
(a)
(i) MinnPost is an online local news outlet. See MinnPost
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MinnPost
(" is a nonprofit online newspaper in Minneapolis, founded in 2007, with a focus on Minnesota news")
(ii) So I figured the news report must have originated from somewhere else. And it is. See Fred M Hechinger
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_M._Hechinger
(1920 – 1995; section 3 Legacy: "The Hechinger Report (Project of Hechinger Institute on Education and the Media) at Teachers College, Columbia University, was named for him after he served as a Teachers College trustee since 1992") (footnote omitted)

(b)
(i) "Yushi Inaba, a senior associate professor [上級 准教授] of management at International Christian University in Tokyo"
(A) Yūshi INABA   稲葉　祐之. ICU, undated
https://researchers.icu.ac.jp/icuhp/KgApp?resId=S000065
(currently: "所属  国際基督教大学教養学部 アーツ・サイエンス学科   職種  教授
■ 学歴
1.        1997/10～2001/09        The University of Cambridge Judge Business School Management Studies 博士課程修了 PhD
2.        2015/10～2016/08        The University of Oxford Department of Education Higher Education 修士課程修了 MSc
3.        1992/04～1994/03        神戸大学 経営学研究科 日本企業経営専攻 修士課程修了 修士
4.        1988/04～1992/03        横浜国立大学 経営学部 卒業 学士（経営学）
■ 職歴
1.        2023/04～        国際基督教大学 教養学部 アーツ・サイエンス学科・教授")
(B) Japanese-English dictionary:
* gakka 学科 【がっか】 (n): "department (university, etc)"
* アーツ arts  ("アーツ・サイエンス学科" is Department of Arts and Science.)
* kyōyō-gaku-bu 教養学部 【きょうようがくぶ】 (n): "college of general education"  (meaning: "college of liberal arts") (Further, in Japan it is usually "Faculty" rather than "College.")
   * ippan-kyōyō 一般教養 【いっぱんきょうよう】 (n): "general education"
(C) International Christian University  国際基督教大学
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Christian_University
(1949- ; ICU)

* 基督教 kirisutokyō; Christ 基督 kirisuto)
(D) Cambridge Judge Business School
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_Judge_Business_School
(1990- ; Paul Judge and his wife donated)
(ii) "Akiyoshi Yonezawa [米澤 彰純], professor and vice-director of the International Strategy Office [国際戦略室副室長] at Tohoku University [東北大学] in Sendai [(宮城県) 仙台市]"
(iii) "Yoshito Ishio, dean of the College of Liberal Arts at International Christian University"

Yoshito ISHIO  石生　義人 (国際基督教大学教養学部 アーツ・サイエンス学科 教授)  (PhD in sociology, University of Minnesota 1991-1995; MA in sociology, Baylor Univ 1990-1991; 文学士 in 英語, 西南学院大学  (1916- ; private, based in 福岡県福岡市) 1983-1988)


(c) "The onset in the 1990s of 'shōshikōreika,' or the aging of Japan's population, coincided with the start of a recession here that the Japanese call 'the lost 30 years.' "

The "shoushikoureika" is another way -- besides shoushikoureika -- to romanize 少子高齢化 (社会).

(d) About the second sentence in quotation 1.
(i) How many Americans turn 18-year-olds a year?

National Demographic Analysis Tables: 2020. Census Bureau, last revised Mar 10, 2022
https://www.census.gov/data/tabl ... nalysis-tables.html
, whose Table 1 (heading: Table 1. Demographic Analysis Net Coverage Error Estimates by Single Year of Age, Sex, and Series: April 1, 2020/ in Microsoft Excel format) showed that on Apr 1, 2020 the "middle" estimate was that there were 4.3 million 18-year-olds (in US).
(ii) America's Youth at 18: School Enrollment and Employment Transitions Between Ages 17 and 18. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Department of Labor, Feb 24, 2006 (News No. USDL 06-320).
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/nlsyth_02242006.pdf
(" These findings are from the first seven annual rounds of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, which is sponsored by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor. The survey includes a nationally representative sample of about 9,000 young men and women who were born during the years 1980 to 1984. * * * This release focuses on the school enrollment and employment experiences of these youths from the October when they were age 17 to the October when they were age 18. * * * • By the October when age 18, a little over half of men had graduated from high school, compared with more than three-fifths of women
• Nearly 7 percent of 18-year-old male high school graduates who had not enrolled in college had enlisted in the Armed Forces, compared with 2 percent of women")

This BLS news did not give the absolute numbers, only percentages, in any category.

Please compare the first billet point in the preceding quotation with quotation 4's second last sentence.

(e) In MinnPost but not in Hechinger Report itself: "Robert Eskildsen [PhD in Modern Japanese History  Stanford Univ 1989-1998; MA in 日本史 国際基督教大学 1986-1989], vice president for academic affairs, in his office at International Christian University in Tokyo. After three decades of declining population in Japan, Eskildsen says, 'nrollments are about to start a long decline.' Credit: Tomohiro Ohsumi for The Hechinger Report"

This is a photo credit that (the photo) MinnPost did not reproduce.