研究：中国经济过热对全球构成风险

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

VOA Chinese, Jan. 14, 2010.
http://www1.voanews.com/chinese/news/china/WEF-Says-China-Overheating-Econ-Poses-Major-Global-Risk-20100114-81570337.html

My comment:
(a) I read the full report of
Global Risk 2010; A Global Risk Network Report. World Economic Forum,
January 2010.*

* The report appears in the home page of web site www.weforum.org. Its press
release does not mention China. This is the key part that leads to VOA
report.

"A note on three other key risks

"While not explored in depth in this edition, 'asset price collapse', 'China
’s growth falling to less than 6%” and 'Afghanistan' featured highly on
the Global Risks Landscape. * * *

[The paragraph under the heading "Asset price collapse" deals with US and
Dubai but NOT China.]

"China’s growth falling to 6% or less

"China appears to have successfully navigated the financial crisis and
global recession. However, much of the domestic impulses derive from high
credit growth, which entails an increased risk of misallocation of
capital and renewed bubbles in financial asset prices and real estate. These
can always carry the risk of a sharp and potentially recessionary
correction. A loss in China’s growth momentum could adversely affect global
capital and commodity markets. The Chinese
government faces a number of challenges: the need to increase domestic
demand to counter the loss in exports and the need to maintain a stable
renminbi given China’s vast accumulation of foreign reserves. The
implications of a fall in China’s growth would be particularly acute for
its trading partners if it should happen before the global economy is on a
more resilient path.

(b) My interpretation of the above quotation is the same as the conventional
wisdom in China that if annual GDP growth rate somehow dip below the
magical 8%, something bad will happen--rather than a concern about
overheating.

(c) However, a Bloomberg report seems to be in support of VOA interpretation
, both of which cite Daniel Hofmann.

Zijing Wu and Kevin Crowley, China’s Overheating Economy Is ‘Major’ Risk,
WEF Says. Bloomberg, Jan. 14, 2010.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj4zzMBNE7rI&pos=6
("'Growth below 6 percent in China is a red alert in 2010,' Daniel Hofmann,
group chief economist at Zurich Financial Services AG and one of the authors
of the report, told reporters at a briefing today in London. 'A hard-
landing in China is a major risk.'")

--