俄罗斯提高远东俄军战力 剑指中国？

choi

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VOA Chinese, Feb 20, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110220_Russia_Military-116558813.html


-----------------------------------Separately
(1) Tony Perry and Yuriko Nagano, Japanese troops train at Camp Pendleton for island defense. Los Angeles Times, Feb 20, 2011.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/02/japanese-troops-from-the-western-area-infantry-regiment-are-assaulting-the-green-hills-of-camp-pendleton-in-operation-iron-fi.html
("The amphibious assault training, [UC San Diego prof. Ellis] Krauss said, is most likely preparing Japan to 'rush to the defense of its many relatively unprotected southern islands in case the Chinese or North Koreans try to take them back'")

(2) Mark Magnier, Nepal caught between China and India. Los Angeles Times, Feb 20, 2011.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-nepal-china-20110220,0,7857485.story
("A recent recording making the rounds in Nepal featured a Maoist party leader speaking to a man with a Chinese accent. During the 12-minute tape, the Chinese voice offers $6.9 million to bribe 50 Nepali legislators for help in forming a Maoist-led government that would favor China over India")

(3) Michael Hiltzik, 787 Dreamliner Teaches Boeing Costly Lesson on Outsourcing. Los Angeles Times, Feb 15, 2011.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20110215,0,442445.column
("But much of the blame belongs to the company's quantum leap in farming out the design and manufacture of crucial components to suppliers around the nation and in foreign countries such as Italy, Sweden, China, and South Korea")

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choi

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Russia fears Chinese invasion. It does not intend to invade China.

I will give you a scenario.

(1) Precedents:
(a) Japan on the eve of Pearl Harbor: salivating over oil in Dutch Indonesia.
(b) Operation Barbarossa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa
(The German economy needed more oil and controlling the Baku Oilfields would achieve this; as Albert Speer, the German Minister for Armaments and War Production, later said in his interrogation, "the need for oil certainly was a prime motive" in the decision to invade.[37])

Ref 37: Yergin, Daniel (1991), The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, New York: Simon & Schuster, ISBN 0-671-79932-0  p. 334

(i) Frederick I, Holy Roman Emperor
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_I,_Holy_Roman_Emperor
(1122-1190; German; Holy Roman Emperor; The name Barbarossa came from the northern Italian cities he attempted to rule, and means "red beard" in Italian – a mark of both their fear and respect)

He had red beard and hair.
(ii) German–Soviet Commercial Agreement (1940)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_Commercial_Agreement_(1940)

Quote:

Section 1.1 Prior to 1939: "Germany lacks natural supplies of several key raw materials needed for economic and military operations. In 1938, two thirds of German oil supply came from the United States and Latin America, while 52 per cent of German steel used imported iron ore originating from Sweden.

Section 1.2 Resource requirements: "were Russian supplies cut off, German planners estimated that they would need to find substitutes for approximately 165,000 tons of manganese and almost 2 million tons of oil per year.[16] * * * On May 8, [1939] German officials produced new planning figures estimating that Germany possessed oil stocks totaling only 3.1 months of usage.[16] * * * Because of the expected naval blockade [by UK], the Soviet Union would become the only potential supplier for many items.[17]

Section 4 Trade and assistance during the Agreement's operation: "In the Summer of 1940, Germany grew even more dependent on Soviet imports.[61] German occupations of France, the Netherlands, and Belgium created additional demand while decreasing avenues for indirect supply.[61] Compared to 1938 figures, the expanded "Greater Germany" and its sphere of influence lacked, among other items, 500,000 tons of manganese, 3.3 million tons of raw phosphate, 200,000 tons of rubber and 9.5 million tons of oil.[61] Hitler believed that an eventual invasion of the Soviet Union increasingly looked like the only way in which Germany could solve its resource crisis.[61]

Ref:
16 Ericson, Edward E. (1999), Feeding the German Eagle: Soviet Economic Aid to Nazi Germany, 1933-1941, Greenwood Publishing Group, ISBN 0275963373, at page 44.
17 Ditto, at page 54.
61 Ditto, at pages 127–8.


(c) In World War II, US produced most of world oil, followed distantly by Soviet Union. Neither Japan nor Germany produced much oil--and Italy none.

Military production during World War II
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II
(section 2.5 Materials: crude oil)

(d) Richard F. Kaufman and John Pearce Hardt, The former Soviet Union in transition. Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, 1993, at page 463.
http://books.google.com/books?id=JSwstF6SEAkC&pg=PA463&lpg=PA463&dq=oil+production+1940+%22soviet+union%22+us&source=bl&ots=V7LC__Iek2&sig=x1n0TIMeDv26OjiYrlDBg1y5p5w&hl=en&ei=E5dmTe8ng4KUB_bEof8B&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CDoQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q&f=false
("As World War II began, many factors influenced Hitler's decision to attack Soviet Union, but the central issue was oil. In the 1940 Soviet Union oil production reached 223 mb, 163 mb of which  came from the Baku region. In the early 1940s, as the Germans drove through Russia major operatives were the Baku and Groznyy oil fields. The German army was stopped short of its goal and as the war ended, was reduced to having teams of oxen oull its trucks.")

The "mb" stands for "million marrels."

(e)  ... - Google Books Result
N. A. Krylov, A. A. Bokserman and Evgeniĭ Romanovich Stavrovskiĭ (eds), The oil industry of the former Soviet Union: reserves and prospects, extraction, transportation. Gordon and Breacah Science Publishers, 1998, at page 74.
http://books.google.com/books?id=9mbYnR9rGJEC&pg=PA72&lpg=PA72&dq=oil+production+1940&source=bl&ots=z1rREzmKJW&sig=wSy2yTqF6vEZTHAa60v3Y9D7_dg&hl=en&ei=X5VmTa-BMYSBlAelgb2AAg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CFoQ6AEwCTgK#v=onepage&q=oil%20production%201940&f=false
(Table 1.3 Oil production in different regions of the former Soviet Union)

(i) Baku
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku
(the capital, the largest city, and the largest port of Azerbaijan and entire Caucasus)


(2) Should China enter war--even before China enters war--China's transportation routes through Malacca Strait, Myanma or Pakistan may be blocked (India alone can accomplish this). Its routes through Xinjiang may become precarious (local rebellions?). Oil and gas fields in Russia's far east--in Sakhalin and across the border from Heilongjiang--may prove too tempting for China.

※ 修改:．choi 于 Feb 24 13:58:31 修改本文．[FROM: 129.10.0.0]