A New Rand Study

choi

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James Dobbins, David C. Gompert, David A. Shlapak and Andrew Scobell, Conflict With China; Prospects, consequences, and strategies for deterrence. Arroyo Center, Rand Corp, October 2011
(Prepared for the United States Army; 2011035717)
http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/rand_op344.pdf

Quote:

"American ground forces will be essential for the most likely East Asia contingency, that
arising from a Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) collapse, but less so for the
others." summary

"Occasions for Conflict

"North Korea
The immediate operational concerns [following N Korea collapse] for United States Forces–Korea/Combined Forces Command (USFK/CFC) would be to secure ballistic missile launch and WMD sites. If any coherent North Korean army remained, neutralizing Korean People’s Army (KPA) long-range artillery threatening Seoul could also be needed.

"South China Sea  
China’s current ability to project substantial power into the South China Sea region is
limited

"Japan
U.S. goals in the event of a Sino-Japanese dispute would be to help defend Japan

"India
Conflict between China and India, which view each other as geostrategic rivals on the Asian
landmass, could be triggered by an incident along their long-contested common border or a dispute over how to respond to a failing neighboring state such as Burma/Myanmar. * * * In either circumstance the United States would probably seek to stay out of the conflict, with its chief immediate concern being the safety of tens of thousands of US civilians in the region

"confidence in this varies from the South China Sea (high) to North Korea (medium) to Taiwan (medium-low)" page 5

"Perhaps the most promising military escalation path for the United States—most credible, least dangerous, and most one-sided in its effects—is that of conventional precision strikes against Chinese war-fighting and war-supporting targets"  page 7

Note:
(a) The key words in the quotation from summary is "ground forces." Page 5 lists what is entailed in each contigency: "In North Korea, U.S. ground, tactical air, strike, and special operations forces could be needed; in Taiwan, a full array of naval and air forces; in the South China Sea, U.S. blue-water superiority."
(b) The last quotation is about pre-emptive strike.


---------------------------------Separately
(1) 中国船员在湄公河遇袭后中方暂停航运. VOA Chinese, Oct 10, 2011
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20111010-thailand-chinese-131461133.html
(船上13名水手死亡; "《曼谷邮报》说，泰国军队在袭击发生后不久与毒贩发生战斗，夺回货船。船上载有90万粒甲基安非他命药片")

(2) 鲜为人知的陈年往事：毛泽东、斯大林与莫斯科大剧院. VOA Chinese, Oct 10, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20111010-great-theater-moscow-131450558.html

Note:
(a) 莫斯科大剧院  Bolshoi Theatre
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoi_Theatre
(The current building was built on Theatre Square in 1824; opera and ballet; "Bolshoi" being the Russian for "large" or "grand")
(b) 红罂粟  The Red Poppy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Red_Poppy
(created in 1927 as the first Soviet ballet with a modern revolutionary theme; The ballet takes place at a seaport in 1920s-era Kuomintang China; Tao-Hoa 桃花; Impressed by the [Russian] captain's act of kindness she gives him a red poppy as a symbol of her love; As she dies, she gives another red poppy flower to a young Chinese girl as a sign of love and freedom)

(3) 日本政府拟全面介入南中国海问题. VOA Chinese, Oct 10, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20111010-south-china-131445098.html

(4) 缅甸停建密松大坝 中国损失20亿美元. VOA Chinese, Oct 10, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20111010-china-burma-131444898.html

Note: The report cites two microblogs.
(a) "900页伊洛瓦底江密松大坝论证资料（中方据有）被有意泄密，据说与中国学者有关，缅甸反对派如获至宝，引经据典精确击中中电投七寸。36亿美金造价大坝工程已完成20余亿投资全泡汤。中方急得上火，嘴上还不敢说什么。"
赵世龙, 网易微博, Oct 9, 2011.
http://t.163.com/4522431957/status/-9009362704229048013
(b) "三峡模式异国惨重失败：由三峡公司投资36亿美金、已完成投资20余亿的缅甸伊洛瓦底江密松大坝，在被昂山素季诟病后，日前被缅总统吴登盛叫停。此坝合约签90%发电供中国用，算跨国的西电东送，实际自今年3月以来，缅方就对中方人员进入百般刁难，缅方环保人士抗议不断，克钦游击队也常袭击工地。 中方投资，50年后归缅方。90%电力输送中国。20多亿美金打水漂，据说可能接下来中缅油路还会出问题。缅方以前亲中，现在不想把鸡蛋全放一个篮子里，分放多处，向印度示好，向英美示好。多次深入缅甸并亲见现场的云南人士绝密消息。"
赵世龙, 新浪微博, Oct 7, 2011.
http://weibo.cn/dpool/ttt/home.php?filter=2&uid=1221741654&vt=3

(5) 美高官访华，将面临台湾军售和货币议案“拷问.” VOA Chinese, Oct 10, 2011
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20111010-china-us-131443253.html
(Kurt Campbell )

(6) Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell gave a speech today (Oct 10) at Bangkok. Two reports ensue.
(a) Grant Peck, Senior US Diplomat Sees Change Afoot in Myanmar. Associated press, Oct 10, 2011
("A senior US diplomat [Kurt Campbell] said Monday that Washington will respond with reciprocal measures to moves by Myanmar's military-backed government to become freer and more democratic")
(b) US Revs Up All-Round Comeback to Asia: Campbell. Xinhua, Oct 10, 2011.

My comment:
(a) The transcript is not available in the website of US Department of State, possibly because it is a holiday (Columbus Day).
(b) all-round (adj) is variant of all-around.

all-around (adj):
"1: considered in or encompassing all aspects : comprehensive <the best all–around performance so far>
2: competent in many fields <an all–around performer>"
www.m-w.com

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