专家:印度GDP增长率两年后超中国

choi

VOA Chinese, Oct 25, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/n ... 2013-132548563.html

Note:
(a) 安永会计师事务所  Ernst & Young
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_%26_Young
(headquartered in London; Ernst & Young is the result of a series of mergers of ancestor organizations. The oldest originating partnership was founded in 1849 in England as Harding & Pullein)

Two people. One vision. Ernst & Young, undated.
http://www.ey.com/US/en/About-us/Our-history
(Arthur Young and Alwin C Ernst)

(b) Ernst & Young Rapid Growth Markets Forecast (RGMF). Emerging Markets Centre, Ernst & Young, Oct 24, 2011
http://www.ey.com/IN/en/Newsroom ... th-Markets-Forecast

My comment: The press release does not explain why. Presumably there is a report behind which, upon payment, spells out reasons.


-----------------------Separately
(1) 黑龙江大庆出租汽车司机大罢工. VOA Chinese, Oct 25, 2011.

(2) 沃尔玛重开重庆分店 保证遵守规定. VOA Chinese, Oct 25, 2011.

(3) Joseph Sternberg, The Phony Success of China's Stimulus: Easy money has delayed Beijing's day of reckoning. Expect to see a lot of bank loans go bad. Wall Street Journal, Oct 25, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... 50983229842402.html

Quote:

"Fitch [Ratings] estimates that new financing [bank credits directed by Beijing] for 2011 will hit 17.5 trillion-18 trillion yuan ($2.7 trillion-$2.8 trillion), equivalent to 37% or more of China's GDP. Financing expanded by an amount equal to 42% of GDP in both 2009 and 2010.

"Beijing essentially did what it has done all along--heavy investments in infrastructure and fixed assets--only more so. But the marginal returns on this strategy are rapidly diminishing. In 2006, one yuan in credit expansion yielded 0.76 yuan in GDP growth. In 2007 and 2008, that one yuan of credit continued to create at least 0.70 yuan in growth. But in 2009, as the credit stimulus got under way in earnest, one yuan of new stimulus credit created a paltry 0.18 yuan in additional GDP. That has improved somewhat since then, but for 2011 one yuan of credit still is expected to create only 0.42 yuan in GDP.

My comment: There is no need to read the rest.