台湾来鸿：马英九的＂死亡交叉＂

choi

BBC Chinese, Nov 18, 2011
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/si ... wletter_tw_ma.shtml

My comment:
(a) Read only the first four paragraphs.
(b) The report refers to
新聞稿: 未來事件交易所目前對2012年總統選舉預測; 蔡英文的得票率過半、領先12縣市. 政治大學預測市場研究中心, Nov 17, 2011
http://nccupm.wordpress.com/
("根據未來事件交易所在11月16日的加權平均價格，蔡英文的得票率預測為50.0%、馬英九為46.1%、宋楚瑜為8.1%。由於三人的政治期貨價格加總超過一百，顯示目前市場仍未達成均衡 * * * 自6月中旬馬英九在得票率預測上取得領先後，長達4個月的時間馬英九都一直領先蔡英文3-5個百分點左右，但馬英九在10月17日提出兩岸和平協議後，情勢急轉直下，雙方回到互相拉鋸的態勢。在11月7日以後，蔡英文開始明顯領先馬英九大約4個百分點")
(c) The theory is this kind of projection is more accurate, as people put money on their mouth, betting with their own money.
(d) In US, markets like this is instantaneous and an observer can see the curve (perhaps by the day, not y the hours or minutes). I recall the same in this Taiwanese market four years ago. I am disappointed that now this Taiwanese market only provides press release every few days.