Letter to Editor and Author's Reply

choi

The Great China Debate: Will Beijing Rule the world?  Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2012
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... -great-china-debate

(1) Derek Scissors, The Wobbly Dragon.

(2) Subramanian Replies.

My comment: The URL shows the first five paragraphs of Mr Scissors' letter, whose last two paragraphs are as follows.

"By underemphasizing or ignoring Chna's various weakness, Subramanian underestimates the United States' ability to influence the competition with China. That said, his criticisms of the United tates are valid; indeed, his baseline prediction of US growth at 2.5 percent annually may be too optimistic. Crippled by debt, the United States faces a period of stagnation. If the overall economy remains sluggish, a lck of import growth will cause trade to lag and further reduce the United States' global influence.

"Still, the Chinese dragon will not fly forward indefinitely, as Subramanian suggests; it may even crash. For the foreseeable future, China will not attain the kind of dominance the United States has long held. The world should not expect to crown a new global leader but prepare for the absence of one.