(2) Alex Frangos, China's Next Problems: Paying for Its Bailout. Wall Street Journal, Aug 31, 2015 (in the column: Heard on the Street).
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chin ... -bailout-1440953986
paragraphs :
(a) "The question is, what will the government do with all that stock that it already has bought?
"Unlike the US bailouts of 2008 and 2009, China is in the unenviable position of having bought near the market’s top, not at the bottom. Getting a TARP-like profit from its investments seems unlikely with the market so far below where much of the buying took place.
(b) "There is no official number on what the government has spent on the bailout. In early August, Goldman Sachs figured it was up to 900 billion yuan ($141 billion), with capacity for a total outlay of 2 trillion yuan.
"Count state-owned enterprises that have been forced to buy back stock, and that total might be as high as 3.5 trillion, according to investors. That doesn’t count stock that would otherwise have been sold were it not for a ban on major shareholders from selling.
"Losses of about 40% on those purchases would be 1.4 trillion yuan, spread among the various parties.
(c) "The central government [Beijing] runs a budget deficit of about 2.7% of gross domestic product and its [cumulative] debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 20%. But this is hardly the full picture. The International Monetary Fund estimates China’s 'augmented' budget deficit, which takes into account local-government borrowing, is closer to 10% a year. Augmented government debt to GDP will hit 60% this year, from 47% in 2011. |