吾爾開希臉書

choi

吾爾開希. 臉書, Nov 27, 2015.
https://www.facebook.com/taichung2016/

Note:
(a) In the previous Facebook posting, Wu'er Kaixi states he will throw his support for 張廖 萬堅 (male, DPP; 現任臺中市議會第二屆議員 (elected in December 2014)).  In the last legislature election (held in January 2012) 張廖 lost to the same opponent as this time (蔡錦隆: KMT, incumbent) 46% to 51%.
(b) There has been no publicized poll in the 台中市第四選區. However, there was a Sept 20, 2015 report published by both 風傳媒 and 智慧交易所 Exchange of Wisdom: "根據智慧交易所最新預測，張廖萬堅目前當選機率為58.0%，蔡錦隆為38.8%，吾爾開希為4.1%."
(i) A recent unscientific survey suggested the numbers barely changed.
(ii) Based in City of Taipei, 智慧交易所 is a prediction market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
(c) 大愛憲改聯盟 is a fringe (political) party. And for a political party to win a seat in 不分區立法委員選舉, that party must cross the threshold of 5% total votes in that category (不分區立法委員選舉; as opposed to 区域立委選舉). For these reasons, 吾爾開希 win not be elected anyhow.
(d) 張廖?  How come? See 林良哲, 活廖死張/生前姓廖 死後改姓張. Liberty Times, Apr 6, 2011
news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/paper/482017
("雖然「活廖死張」是台中市西屯南屯一帶部份廖姓家族的傳統，但其中有一房卻直接複姓為「張廖」，不再生死兩姓，其原因眾說紛紜不可考，台中市前議長張廖貴專，以及目前活躍於台中政壇的市議員張廖萬堅、張廖乃綸，都是其家族成員")