空头预言人民币还将大幅贬值 预期两极化

choi

(1) 空头预言人民币还将大幅贬值 预期两极化. RFA, Feb 10, 2016
www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/xl1-02102016102758.html
("在人民币的预测问题上，美国彭博社跟踪了45位策略师，其中有39位表示，人民币兑美元将在年底前下跌，而看跌期权名义本金额已飙升至4430亿美元 。")

Note: According to Chinese language in PRC:
(a) 期权 = option
(b) 名义本金额 = notional amount
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notional_amount
(or notional principal amount or notional value)

However, I did a brief online research and still do not know what the term means -- much less the significance of "飙升至4430亿美元."
(c) The original:

Lonely Yuan Bulls Say the Hedge Fund Crowd Has It All Wrong. Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Feb 4, 2016 (blog)
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... is-getting-it-wrong
("Thirty-nine of 45 strategists tracked by Bloomberg say the currency will drop against the dollar by year-end, while bearish option bets have swelled to a notional $443 billion as hedge fund managers from Bill Ackman to Crispin Odey positioned for declines. China’s record levels of debt, slowing economic growth and accelerating capital outflows make a compelling case for pessimism.  Yet not everyone is jumping on the bearish bandwagon")

choi

(2)
(a) Carolyn Cui and Juliet Chung, Investor Sound Alarm on China's Reserves. Wall Street Journal, Feb 11, 2016.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/kyle ... al-level-1455128104

Quote:

"Bass, whose Hayman Capital Management LP has a multibillion-dollar bet that the yuan and Hong Kong dollar will fall, told clients in a letter that his firm estimates that China’s liquid foreign reserves are $2.2 trillion at most.

"China’s reserve holdings include US securities—government bonds, agency debt [eg, Freddie Mac]  and stocks—that totaled $1.76 trillion as of last October. China also held about $100 billion in bonds in Japan and $60 billion in German securities, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.  Beyond that it isn’t clear whether China’s total includes capital injected into China’s policy banks, foreign-currency loans to other countries and its commitments for multilateral initiatives, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.  It also isn’t known whether China’s sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp, is counted.

(b) 海曼资本：中国银行业存在 '定时炸弹.' VOA Chinese, Feb 11, 2016
www.voachinese.com/content/china-bank-20160211/3186498.html
(星期三，著名对冲基金经理兼海曼资本的创始人巴斯(Kyle Bass)在对投资者的信中表示，中国银行业存在 '定时炸弹。' 过去10多年来，中国的银行体系资产已膨胀至34.5万亿美元，相当于中国国内生产总值（GDP）的3倍以上，一旦中国的信贷危机全面爆发，其银行业遭受的损失达到美国银行在次贷危机中损失的500%。 * * * 从之前的3万亿美元大幅增长")

Note: I read English-language reports. What Mr Bass writes is not "10多年" but "10年" ten years. The $3 trillion" figure was 10 years ago. The "500%" is correct. See, eg,

Leslie Shaffer, Bass: China Banks May Lose 5 times US banks' Subprime Losses in Credit Crisis. CNBC, Feb 10, 2016
www.cnbc.com/2016/02/10/kyle-bas ... -credit-crisis.html
("China's banking system has grown to $34.5 trillion in assets over the past 10 years, from a base of $3 trillion, wrote Bass, who is famed as one of the few major investors to correctly call the U.S. subprime housing collapse that kicked off the 2008 global financial crisis. That prescience earned him a mention in Michael Lewis' book "Boomerang," which was about the European credit crisis")