美学者揭示中共求生秘诀

choi

VOA Chinese, June 3, 2016.
www.voachinese.com/content/cpc-s ... 160602/3359928.html

My comment:
(a) "葛艺豪认为，习近平上台后设立的改革目标是建立列宁主义式的资本主义，即，利用市场发展经济的同时继续强化党的控制力。"
(i) The problem is there was/is no such thing as 列宁主义式的资本主义. Mr Kroeber does not use the term in ENGLISH -- at least not in the Web.  
(ii) I came to US and read their economics textbooks (for fun). At first I wondered how come marxism or communism was nowhere to be found.  Then I realized Marxism was not science, whose hypotheses could not be tested with experiments (the same as  Freud's interpretation of dreams).

(b) "葛艺豪，本名阿瑟·克罗伯（Arthur Kroeber），是北京佳富龙州商务咨询公司 [Gavekal Dragonomics] 的研究总监，也是《中国经济季刊》的主编。他的新书《中国经济：人人需要了解什么》由牛津出版社出版，以一问一答方式，解答了人们有兴趣了解的许多有关中国经济的问题"
(i) Arthur R Kroeber, China's Economy; What Everyone Needs to Know.®  Oxford University Press, Apr 1, 2016.
https://global.oup.com/academic/ ... 2?lang=en&cc=us
(A) Founded in 2001 (a year before that of Gavekal Dragonomics) and based in Hong Kong (with offices in Beijing, Denver and Stockholm, Sweden), Gavekal Ltd is apparently a portmanteau of two senior partners: Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky (founder).
Partners. Gavekal. Ltd, undated.
research.gavekal.com/partners
(B) In the OUD webpage, click
* Author Information: "Arthur R Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research consultancy he established in Beijing in 2002 after 15 years as a freelance financial journalist in Asia, and editor of its flagship publication China Economic Quarterly."

So, the publication is not prestigious.
* Reviews and Awards
(ii) His webpage at Brookings.edu shows,

"Arthur R Kroeber
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings-Tsinghua Center
* * *
EDUCATION
BA, Harvard University (1984)"

Alan Greenspan said in the memoir that PhD was needed to be taken seriously in economics. (In his youth, Greenspan tried to get one from Columbia, did not finish due to prosperity of his own firm for economic research (but Columbia awarded hi one after Greenspan became a big wig.)

(c)
(i) "不过葛艺豪承认，他对习近平的过度控制和缺乏能力落实改革政策有些悲观，'现在的问题是，习近平是一位哪怕为经济增长牺牲一点点控制都会让他感到非常非常不舒服的领导人，这使他跟邓小平以来的其它中共领导人都不同。'

"但是，葛艺豪还是对中国改革停滞的现状保留着希望，认为习近平可能仍决心进行广泛改革，只是眼下在政治上还无法做到。他说：'如果这一解读是对的，我们会在19大后看到一些变化，因为习近平在19大有机会用他自己的人马替换掉一大批官员，使他能够改变经济政策的方向。'
(ii) The two paragraphs are self contradictory. "缺乏能力" -- this is the first time I hear this assessment about Mr Xi Jinping. If so, Mr Xi can not be counted on to carry on anything in his second term, much less reform. "决心进行广泛改革" is one thing; 能力 is another. See the quotation next.

(d) VOA "记者：* * * 《华尔街日报》的文章就质疑，中国国家主席习近平究竟有没有能力执行他自己制定的深入经济改革的政策；美国的学术机构、媒体也在报道总书记习近平领导的中共中央和总理李克强领导的国务院之间，在媒体上公开暴露出的矛盾和相互指责。* * *

"葛艺豪：首先我要承认这确实很令人费解，你很难看到一幅清晰的图画，了解里面到底发生了什么事情。我要说，我仔细研究中国经济25年，虽然他们（中共高层）总是有政策方向的内部辩论，也有分歧，有时还很激烈，但这次是25年来我能记得的第一次、对政府基本政策产生这么强烈的混淆感。对我而言，这并非习近平和李克强之间的分歧，而是习近平本身议程的混乱[: 保住共产党的权力，防止任何对手力量的崛起 v 最大限度地达成经济增长] * * * 你可以看到两年半前显然是习近平和他亲密同事起草的改革文件，即三中全会决议，也就是60条改革文件。从很多方面看这确实是令人印象深刻的改革议程，但也包含了基本矛盾：一方面，该文件说，市场要在资源配备中起决定作用，但紧接着在下一页，它又说，我们重申国有企业的主导地位。 * * * 因此，非常令人费解的是，[权威人士的] 文章批评用放债刺激经济，这怎么可以用来批评李克强呢？他并不赞成这样的做法。

(e) 葛艺豪："我们确实不知道改革到底要改什么。