川普对华政策会出现颠履性变化吗？

choi

Roughly in chronological order.

(1) 韩连潮：川普对华政策会出现颠履性变化吗？ VOA Chinese, Dec 3, 2016.
http://www.voachinese.com/a/trum ... 161203/3621900.html

Note:
(a) About the title. 颠履 is an error (of course I did not know at first; so I spent time googling it). 颠覆性创新 disruptive Innovation.
(b) "川普在外交上口无遮拦，一些言论常常让人觉得他天真幼稚，低估他的能力。譬如，川普在对华问题上立场和言论前后不一致，让人以为他对中国一无所知。其实，据报道，川普在2011年接受新华社采访时表示，他了解中国，了解中国人的思路，这些年来读了几百本有关中国的书籍，并当场仅凭记忆列举了二十本，其中包括张戎的《毛泽东: 一个不为人知的故事》，查建英的《弄潮儿》以及张彤禾《工厂女孩》等。这一举动是许多号称广读诗书的领导人所做不到的。"

Of course I was unaware of it (until today). I google it, in Chinese and in English, and found nothing from Xinhua itself (I also tried other sources, anything but Xinhua, and found nothing, either).  As of today, most of this commentary is found in Rnglish, little in Chinese (I found just one: in The Epoch Times, which said it translated and compiled from various sources -- 田清综合编译, 独特中国论大亨川普声称了解中国. 大纪元, May 6, 2011). The English sources, at best, cited Xinhua, April 2011 (no date; no language -- if it was published).
(i) Al Cimino, Trump Talking; The Donald, in his own words. Little. Brown, July 5, 2016, page numbers not shown (2 consecutive pages).
https://books.google.com/books?i ... 0the%20Chinese.%20I
(ii) Seth Millstein, Trumpism; The insult-free guide to making America great again. Skyhorse Publishing, 2015, page number not shown
https://books.google.com/books?i ... 0the%20Chinese.%20I
("On China 'I know the Chinese. I've made a lot of money with the Chinese. I understand the Chinese mind.' Xinhua, April 2011[;] 'First of all, I love China. The people are great. They buy my apartments for $50 million all the time. How could I dislike 'em, right?' Virginia rally, 10/14/15")

(2) Simon Denyer, Trump's Call with Taiwan's Leader Looks Like a Calculated Move, Some Experts Say. Washington Post, Dec 4, 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/w ... 88251d1e_story.html

Note: The report cites
(a) two sets of Julia Famularo's tweets. The first sets is first-hand: "It was planned weeks ahead by staffers and Taiwan specialists on both sides, tweeted Julia Famularo, a research affiliate at the Project 2049 Institute, an Arlington-based think tank, adding that she had spoken to someone with direct knowledge."
(b) Michael Crowley, Bull in a China Shop: Trump Risks diplomatic blowup in Asia; No US president or president-elect is known to have spoken to a Taiwanese leader since 1979. Politico, Dec 2, 2016
www.politico.com/story/2016/12/t ... atic-dispute-232146
("Trump has said little about Taiwan, but has surrounded himself with advocates of a tilt away from Beijing, including former UN ambassador John Bolton, who visited Trump Tower on Friday [Dec 2. 2016-- the day Tsai called Trump] for undisclosed reasons")

choi

(3)
(a) Max Fisher, 特朗普蔡英文通话意味着什么？6个问题帮你解读. 纽约时报中文网, Dec 4, 2016
http://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacif ... troversy-explained/

, which is translated from

Max Fisher, Why a Single Phone Call, Lauded by Trump, Roiled the Taiwan Strait. New York Times, Dec 4, 2016
("Mr Trump's transition team, by categorizing his call with Ms. Tsai of Taiwan alongside calls with other heads of state, implied that Mr Trump recognized her as the leader of a sovereign state. Mr Trump also wrote on Twitter that he had spoken to the 'President of Taiwan.'  Recognizing Ms Tsai as a sovereign leader would communicate that the United States considered Taiwan independent from the mainland, a position that even Taiwan does not take")

* There is no need to read the rest of Mr Fisher's Q&A.
(b) Mark Lander, Trump Thrusts Taiwan Into Glare, Rattling Asia; President-elect's phone chat raises fear of a new tension and a bolder China. New York Times, Dec 4, 2016 (one of two front-page top reports; cn.nytimes.com has not translated it yet).
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/0 ... p-taiwan-china.html

Quote:

"Jon M Huntsman, who[, despite being Republican,] served as ambassador to China during Mr Obama's first term[:] 'As a businessman, Donald Trump is used to looking for leverage in any relationship. A President Trump is likely to see Taiwan as a useful leverage point.'

This phone call itself may be bad enough (my wors). "Nor did Mr Trump or his aides make a gesture to reaffirm the One China policy, much to the chagrin of the [Obama's] White House. It fell to a spokesman for the National Security Council to affirm that the United States was not changing the policy.

"Whether Mr Trump views the call as the beginning of a change in approach toward Taiwan is not clear. A person close to him insisted that he was just being polite in taking Ms. Tsai’s call. But Stephen Yates, a former deputy national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney who is advising the Trump transition, said in an interview that people around Mr. Trump were well aware of the nuances of American policy toward Taiwan.  Among hard-line Republicans, there has always been a push to confront China by reaching out to Taiwan.

(4)
(a) Joseph Weber, Conway: Trump's talk with Taiwan leader 'just a call,' not a sign of policy shift/
www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/12 ... n-policy-shift.html
(" 'It's just a phone call,' [KellyAnne] Conway, a Trump transition team adviser, told 'Fox News Sunday.' '“President-elect Trump is not out there making policy or policy prescriptions.' ")
(b) " 'I think I would just say to our counterparts in China that this was a moment of courtesy. The president-elect talked to President Xi two weeks ago in the same manner. It [phone call from Tsai] was not a discussion about policy,' Pence said [Sunday morning] on NBC's 'Meet the Press.' "