When Did Pres. Hu Jintao Know

choi

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About the alleged first test-flight of J-20?

VOA Chinese yesterday presented an intriguing viewpoint, that Pres. Hu and
his men feigned ignorance about the test flight.

(1) The following is the talk Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave
immediately after his meeting with Pres. Hu. Judging from the talk, Mr Gates
seemed certain that Pres. Hu did not know in advance. If Mr Gates had
wanted to be diplomatic--but had not believed his (Gates') own words, he
could have stopped there ("And that’s where we left it") without further
eleboration.


Media Roundtable with Secretary Gates from Beijing, China. US Department of
Defense (DOD), Jan 10, 2011 (transcript).
http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid

Quote:

(a) Whether Pres. Hu knew in advance of the Hu-Gates meeting.

            "Q:  China has apparently made the first test flight of the J-20
today because there are pictures of it flying.  Your reaction?  And you
think that it was timed in any way to coincide with your visit?  If so, what
do you think the message is?

            "SEC. GATES:  Well, I asked President Hu about it directly.

            "Q:  And?

            "SEC. GATES:  And he said that the test had absolutely nothing
to do with my visit and had been a pre-planned test.  And that’s where we
left it.

            "Q:  Could I follow up on that?  You’re a man of candor and you
’ve been around a long time.  Did you believe that?

            "SEC. GATES:  Coming from President Hu, yes.

            "Q:  Could I follow up?  Do you feel that there’s a -- we asked
you on the plane coming over about the difference -- about a gap between
the Chinese civilian leadership and its military leadership.  Now that you’
ve had these meetings and you’ve been here two days, do you perceive a gap?
  Do you perceive that the military is acting independently at times of the
civilian leadership?

            "SEC. GATES:  I’ve had concerns about this over time.  And,
frankly, it’s one of the reasons why I attach importance to a dialogue
between the two sides that includes both civilians and militaries.  I think
that there is great merit in bringing the civilian side and the military
side together to discuss these issues because there is obviously -- it is
hard to compartmentalize many of these security issues into either just
purely military or purely civilian.

            "Q:  Could I follow up on that?  Would it not have been
appropriate for the Chinese to delay this test given your presence here and
the mutual desire expressed in the last few days to improve military-to-
military relations?

            "SEC. GATES:  Well, that’s why I asked President Hu about that.

            "Q:  But in your opinion -- I mean, there is a sort of signal
sent here perhaps or at least one could be perceived.  Do you perceive --
you don’t perceive any signal here?

            "SEC. GATES:  I take President Hu at his word that it had
nothing -- the test had nothing to do with my visit.

(b) About J-20.

            "Q:  A quick clarification on the J-20 and then a question on
North Korea.  The J-20 clarification, does the test flight at all cause you
to reevaluate your statements of recent days that they would -- the Chinese
might have more of a stealth capability.  You said they wouldn’t have a
substantial stealth capability or fifth generation fighter in 20 years or so
.

            "SEC. GATES:  No, let’s be -- let’s be very precise.  What I
said was that in 2020 or 2025, there would be a great disparity between the
numbers of stealth aircraft that the United States had and those of any
other power.

            "Q:  And nothing today has caused you to reevaluate that
statement?

            "SEC. GATES:  No.

(c) About effect of J-20 on Japan.

           "Q:  Yes -- can I follow up on the (inaudible) -- of the J20.  I
understand the U.S. has enough fifth generation fighter jets, but however no
other East Asian country, including Japan, has fifth generation fighter
jets.  So my question is, are you at all concerned about the shifting
balance of air force power in the East Asian region?

            "SEC. GATES:  Well, I’m going to Japan from here and the
Japanese government is considering the purchase of its next generation of
fighter aircraft, the FX.  And so that would give Japan the opportunity --
if they bought the right airplane -- to have a fifth generation capability.
And I might have a few suggestions for them.


--

choi

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(continued)

(2) Yesterday, there was a snowstorm in New England. The snowfall was about half a foot, but city and state were shut down, as usual. It was surprising that newspaper delivery was accomplished in at least some neighborhood. But only one library was open in greater Boston area, which had reeived no newspaper of the day. So I will cite from YESTERDAY's newspapers--which I will remind you were written on Jan 11 (the same day the VOA Chinese piece was written; the latter was published online so it got to come out a day earlier than the print newspapers). The following print newspapers both took the position that Pres. Hu did not know in advance.

(a) Elizabeth Bumiller and Michael Wines, China Tests Jet as Gates Visits; Hu is seen as surprised by show of force. New York Times (NYT), Jan 12, 2011 (title in the print).
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/12/world/asia/12fighter.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=j-20&st=cse

Quote:

"A senior American defense official said that when Mr. Gates asked Mr. Hu to discuss the test it was evident to the Americans that the Chinese leader and his top civilian advisers were startled by the query and were unprepared to answer him. Photos of the flight of the radar-evading J-20 had been prominently posted on unofficial Chinese military Web sites a few hours before the meeting.*

* Right after this sentence, in the print but NOT online, NYT has this paragraph: "'It was clear the civilian leadership was uninformed,' the official said.

"Chinese officials provided only a brief summary of the meeting between Mr. Gates and Mr. Hu and did not address the perception by Pentagon officials that Mr. Hu had not been informed of the test.

"Some American officials speculated that the test flight was meant in part as an act of defiance against Mr. Hu, who has ordered the Chinese military to try to smooth over years of rocky relations with the Pentagon. Mr. Gates made the trip here at the invitation of Mr. Hu, who is to meet with President Obama at the White House next week and by all accounts is eager for his American visit to be a success.**

** Regarding the sentence of the report: Mr Hu "by all accounts is eager for his American visit to be a success." It has been widely reported, since White House announced a month ago Pres. Hu would conduct a "state visit" in January, that Pres. Hu has made a wide-ranging concessions.

"Joseph S. Nye Jr., a Harvard professor and a former assistant secretary of defense who was in Beijing on Tuesday for a conference on United States-China relations, said it was not a complete surprise to him that Mr. Hu appeared uninformed of the test flight. 'The Chinese military often sets its own agenda on day-to-day operations without political approval,' he said.

PLA "first rolled out the plane last week, in what was regarded as a tough-minded welcome to Mr. Gates before he even arrived. Mr. Gates, however, reacted by playing down the spectacle. In comments to reporters on his plane en route to Beijing, he questioned 'just how stealthy' the Chinese fighter really was.

Describing the last three J-20 tests in chronological order: on last Thrusday, last Friday and Tuesday: J-20 "then reappeared on Thursday for another high-speed runway test, almost taking off before parachutes popped out and slowed it to a halt. That test was watched by a crowd of luminaries ferried to the site in a Boeing 737, according to Mr. [Andrei] Chang, the military expert. On Friday, two planeloads of officials watched another runway test, this time staging a ceremony and snapping pictures of themselves with the test pilot. Yet another large crowd witnessed Tuesday’s first flight, Mr. Chang said.

(b)
(i) Jeremy Page and Julian E Barnes, China Shows Its Growing Might; Stealth Jet Upstages Gates, Hu. Wall Street Journal, Jan 12, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704428004576075042571461586.html

Quote:

"Citing diplomatic protocol, the U.S. officials declined to make public further details about how exactly Mr. Hu was informed about the test during the meeting. But television footage showed several uniformed Chinese generals and other senior officers in the room.

(ii) Jeremy Page, Test Flight Signals Jet Has Reached New Stage. Wall Street Journal, Jan 12, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704515904576075852091744070.html?KEYWORDS=JEREMY+PAGE

Quote:

"The aviation experts say there is a limit to what more they can tell about the J-20's capabilities—especially its radar-evading technology—from the low-resolution images

"China appears to be testing two engines—one Chinese and one Russian * * * [Andrei Chang]  said one prototype was likely fitted with a Russian AL-31FN engine, and the other with a Chinese WS-10A.

"The [bigger and heavier] J-20 would allow China to expand the operational range of its fighters to 1,500 kilometers, said Hong Yuan, general secretary of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. * * * Carlo Kopp, head of Capability Analysis at Air Power Australia, an independent defense think tank, said the J-20's size and shape suggested it was designed to be able to fly up to 1,500 miles and back without refueling.


【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: About the alleged first test-flight of J-20?
: VOA Chinese yesterday presented an intriguing viewpoint, that Pres. Hu and
: his men feigned ignorance about the test flight.
: (1) The following is the talk Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave
: immediately after his meeting with Pres. Hu. Judgi
: (以下引言省略...)

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