人渣经济笔记：心有余力不足

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[<div class="EntryTitle"> 心有余力不足 [</div>
[<div class="EntryTools"> [<a target=_blank id="ctl00_Main_EntryForm_AuthorLink" href="http://www.bullogger.com/users/guokai/" target="_blank">人渣[</a> [<a target=_blank> @ 2009-3-14 2:20 [</a> [<a target=_blank>评论(11)[</a> [<a target=_blank id="ctl00_Main_EntryForm_A1" href="http://www.bullogger.com/blogs/kaiecon/diggs/285410.aspx" target="_blank">推荐(279)[</a> [<a target=_blank href="http://www.bullogger.com/blogs/kaiecon/trackbacks/285410.aspx" target="_blank">引用通告[</a> [<a target=_blank href="http://www.bullogger.com/blogs/kaiecon/?cat=">分类: 未归类[</a> [</div>
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早上一起来，发现从CNN，到《纽约时报》，到国内的各大媒体都在报道同一条消息：[</p>[<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
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温家宝表示，我们把巨额资金借给美国，当然关心我们资产的安全。说句老实话，我确实有些担心。因而我想通过你再次重申要求美国保持信用，信守承诺，保证中国资产的安全。[</p>
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我很喜欢这一段，可能因为和不少人不同的原因。温总理也许只是在实话实说（也就是说，我下面说的未必是他的本意），但在我看来，从发出信息的角度说，这段话的含意远远超出了实话实说：这段话绕过了一直浮于市面的中国导致危机说（当时，我有点愤怒的写下了“[<a target=_blank href="http://kaieconblog.spaces.live.com/blog/cns%21B4C829CC97B9EDD8%219640.entry">喊声爹我们就认[</a>”），然后用异常温和的口气给了美国人一个警告：请记住是我们在借钱给你们，少跟我们这一套那一套的。[</p>
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但是话说回来，我已经说过很多次了，美国人是没法保证中国资产安全的。不是美国人不想，不愿意，或者有阴谋，而是美国人没能力。[</p>
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美国绝大部分的国债还是由美国人持有的，因此美国政府即便有心想赖债，拿这么多美国人陪绑，在各种意义上都是不可能的。从历史记录上说，世界上没有国家没赖过债（包括中国，不过是在解放前），但美国在所有的国家中是属于记录非常良好的。因此，我从来不怀疑美国人会刻意的不保证美元资产的安全，事实上，这也是世界资本市场的认识。当危机来临，全世界的资金到处寻找安全去处的时候，它们毫无例外的流到了两个地方：黄金和美元国债（我在“[<a target=_blank href="http://kaieconblog.spaces.live.com/blog/cns%21B4C829CC97B9EDD8%218865.entry">跟着老鼠走[</a>”里写了一个搞笑版）。[</p>
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但坦率的说，我个人认为也一直在说，美国人已经不可能有能力偿还它的债务，给定奥巴马那吓死人的中期预算，还有巨大的隐藏债务－养老金和医疗保险，这件事情变得更不可能了。或早或晚，美国人是必须要“赖掉”一部分债务的。赖外债的方式极有可能是美元贬值，赖内债的方式极有可能是通货膨胀。请注意，贬值和通货膨胀未必会是刻意的政策选择，而只是经济规律的自然结果。就像津巴布韦可能也不想通货膨胀，但印了那么多票子的结果必然只能是通货膨胀。美国在过去和目前的政策选择，使得了贬值和通胀只会是迟早的事情。[</p>
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很多人也许会比较自然的觉得，既然美元那么不安全，那就赶快持有别的资产吧。去年年初的时候，我写了“[<a target=_blank href="http://kaieconblog.spaces.live.com/blog/cns%21B4C829CC97B9EDD8%214284.entry">1.5万亿美元还谈什么回报率[</a>”（现在这个数字已经是2万亿），讲得就是这件事情――中国外汇储备的回报率低，在我看来，和中国持有什么资产没有什么关系。回报率低的原因是因为中国的外汇储备太多了。不改变中国仍然在高速积累外汇储备的现实（请注意，解决这个问题的办法不是让政府把这些钱花了或者分了，前两天的“[<a target=_blank href="http://kaieconblog.spaces.live.com/Blog/cns%21B4C829CC97B9EDD8%2110209.entry">试一下[</a>”就是谈论这个问题），不管你想出什么好主意管理外汇储备，最后恐怕都会是失望。[</p>
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评论(11) [<a target=_blank id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_OrderDescButton" href="javascript:__doPostBack('ctl00$Main$CommentList1$OrderDescButton','')">按反序排列[</a> [<input name="ctl00$Main$CommentList1$SortDirectionField" id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_SortDirectionField" value="ASC" type="hidden"> [<table class="summarylist fixedtable" id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0">
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl02_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 脑僵时看看 [216.165.95.*] @ 2009-3-14 3:35:29 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> ms 您对美国的态度相当之好啊，美国人不赖债……
所有赖债人的借口都是"我没钱"
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl03_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 我要我的自由 [204.2.134.*] @ 2009-3-14 9:11:31 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 能看到这样的文章,不禁有点喜悦啊!拔开迷雾见事实! [</div>
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl04_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [<a target=_blank id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl04_AuthorLink" href="http://www.bullogger.com/users/%e7%ba%a2%e6%a5%bc%e9%81%97%e6%a2%a6/" target="_blank">红楼遗梦[</a> [65.49.14.*] @ 2009-3-14 10:35:11 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 表面上看起来是这样 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl05_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 我要我的自由 [204.2.134.*] @ 2009-3-14 10:38:33 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 胡思乱想半天,因与果,罪与罚,知错与承担,美国与中国,大环境和小个人,.....窗外阳光极好,春天早来了! [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 穷了百姓 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl07_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 江苏人在上海 [64.182.119.*] @ 2009-3-14 17:14:05 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 美国保证了这笔资产的安全，
这笔资产也只是再怀个奥孕；
或者打飞机都嫌不过瘾，再打个神鸡神巴火箭；
或者多搞几次世界勃起大会；
或者搞更大的公务员队伍，更大的监视全民的盖世宝宝；
横竖不会落到人民头上。

黑了这笔资产，倒有可能让这个罪恶政权摇摇欲坠。
所以，最好还是让美国人花光了它吧。 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl08_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 2b2becon students [24.83.212.*] @ 2009-3-15 5:41:09 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 人家借钱这叫demand...
换钱 叫interest.. 中国就跟小姐一样 随叫随到 干完给点利息
到时候本钱换不还再说。
重点，我认为是， 中国不应该用fix rate.. 应该自由交换各国货币。
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl09_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 花痴 [64.150.184.*] @ 2009-3-15 12:24:19 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 女：你爱我吗？
男：爱你超过蛋炒番茄，但还不到澳洲龙虾。

多少读到一些调情的意味。 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl10_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 言论自由群  78261471 [64.182.119.*] @ 2009-3-16 4:40:07 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 国富民穷


言论自由群  78261471 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl11_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] nono [205.134.171.*] @ 2009-3-17 13:35:53 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 希望没过能有一定的信用 虽然没有什么证据 但是总是感觉作为一个政府 没过在政府的财政方面的政策 还是比中国的政府有信用的 个人观点 [</div>
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[<tbody>[<tr> [<td> [<a target=_blank href="javascript:%20IncreaseCommentOpposed(844650,%20'ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl11_VoteBar1')">反对[</a> 0 [</td> [<td> [<table id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl11_VoteBar1_votebar" class="bar" border="0">
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[</td> [<td> 0 [<a target=_blank href="javascript:%20IncreaseCommentAgreed(844650,%20'ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl11_VoteBar1')">支持[</a> [</td> [</tr>
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[<div class="CommentTitle"> [<div id="ctl00_Main_CommentList1_CommentGrid_ctl12_MenuLabel" class="ContextMenuTarget"> [匿名] 眼镜蛇 [65.49.2.*] @ 2009-3-18 13:49:06 [</div>
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[<div class="CommentBody"> 支持花光说！ [</div>
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