评论人士说中国军力目前尚有限

choi

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VOA Chinese, Aug. 2, 2009.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/2009-08-02-voa37.cfm

Quote:

"香港著名军事评论员马鼎胜 * * * 说，归根结底，中俄之间并没有结成深层的盟友关
系，这一点，他说，可以从两国之间在能源上的交往凸显出来。'所为战略协作伙伴关
系是很虚的；我们从石油输出就可以看出来；中国是石油进口大国，俄罗斯是石油出口
大国，如果两国真是战略协作伙伴关系，甚至是有结盟的关系的话，不可能俄罗斯卖给
中国的石油这么少，而且条件非常苛刻。'

My comment: My curiosity was piqued by the quote.

(1) Here are a few pages from Country Analysis Briefs, Energy Information
Agency (EIA), Department of Energy (DOE), United States.

(a) 2008 China, Oil (web page dated July, 2009).
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Oil.html

In 2008, Japan came back to beat China in oil import. What surprises me is
that S Korea and Taiwan import so much that they are ranked No. 5 and 10,
respectively. UK has north sea oilfield to make export; Germany and France
have to import.

In the first five months of 2009, Russia sent 299,000 barrels--or less than
9% of China total import--a day to China, more than double the pace of 2008.

(b) 2006 and 2007 Russia, Oil Exports (web page dated May, 2008; the latest
data available)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Oil_exports.html

The first table showed that in 2006 and 2007, Russia exported 178,000 and 179,000 barrels of oil a day to China, which accounted for roughly 4% of Russian oil export.

(2) The 300,000 a day in 2009 is the outcome of China's loan-for-oil agreement reached early this year. See
China, Russia: A Pipeline Connection, an Act of Desperation? Stratfor, Feb. 18, 2009.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090217_china_russia_pipeline_connection_act_desperation

Summary: In exchange for Chinese loans of $15bn to Rosneft and $10 bn to Transneft, China will receive 300,000 barrels of oil per day for the next 20 years.

Quote: Russia's "decision to go forward on a pipeline that goes directly to China, forgoing the possibilities offered by a more versatile sea port destination, is a major concession. Obviously, now the Russian firms have to go through with the infrastructure developments, which will be technically demanding and fraught with unforeseen expenses and delays (sending Siberian oil eastward is said to cost twice as much per barrel as sending it westward). And the Chinese got a steal: Although not all of the contract’s subtleties are likely out in the open right now, reimbursement for the loan means that the Chinese have purchased Rosneft crude for only about $11.40 a barrel once interest is figured in — about one-third of what Russia’s crude fetches on the open market right now.

(3) Sakhalin island has produced 200,000 barrels of oil a day. Then there is natural gas.

Gleb Bryanski, Russia's Gazprom says needs to work hard on Exxon. Reuters, July 30, 2009.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSLU22448420090731
("The Sakhalin-1 project has been producing around 200,000 barrels per day of oil after starting a few years ago, but its plans to supply gas to China have been on hold despite earlier contracts with Beijing")

Summary: At Khabarovsk, Prime Minister Putin inaugurated the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline.

(4) Where does the Sakhalin oil go?

Sakhalin Island (web page dated May, 2008)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Sakhalin/Background.htm
("Output is being piped to the Russian port of De-Kastri where natural gas is then pumped into the Russian system and oil is exported to international markets. Most of the oil is shipped to markets in east Asia, two to five sailing days away.")

(5) China is notorious for land grabs. Even Russians fear it.

Luke Harding, Russia fears embrace of giant eastern neighbour. Guardian (UK), Aug. 2, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/aug/02/china-russia-relationship
("Russian TV recently claimed that Beijing has drawn up a secret plan. According to this top-secret blueprint, China is determined to grab back Russia's remote, but vast, far east region. China's strategy includes persuading migrants to settle in Russia, marry local women and steal or co-opt local businesses.")

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