Leadership: Why Arab Spring Led To A Long Hot Summer

choi

Strategy Page, Dec 16, 2013.
www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20131216.aspx

My comment:
(a) Ba'ath Party
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ba%27ath_Party
(The party espoused Ba'athism (from Arabic Al-Ba'ath or Ba'ath meaning "renaissance" or "resurrection"))

Quote: "The party was founded by the merger of the Arab Ba'ath Movement, led by [Michel] Aflaq and [Salah al-Din] al-Bitar , and the Arab Ba'ath, led by [Zaki] al-Arsuzi, on 7 April 1947 as the Arab Ba'ath Party. The party quickly established branches in other Arab countries, although it would only hold power in Iraq and Syria.

(b) At the time of US invasion of Iraq, at least one Arabic acquaintance of mine were visibly upset. I held no view. But I was troubled by subsequent armed resistance by Iraqis. I expressed my puzzlement to Americans: “Why don’t they submit to occupation and try to build a better life?”  American friends thought I was nutty. But Japanese had done that, which was not easy. See
John W Dower, Embracing Defeat; Japan in the wake of World War II. WW Norton & Co, 1999.
(c) Permanent normal trade relations
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_normal_trade_relations
(In the US the name was changed from most favored nation (MFN) to PNTR in 1998; The requirement of an annual waiver was inconsistent with the rules of the World Trade Organization, and for the PRC to join the WTO, Congressional action was needed to grant PNTR to the PRC. This was accomplished in late-1999, allowing the PRC to join WTO in the following year)

There were debates among ordinary Americans about wisdom of US granting China PNTR. The most vocal opposition came from labor unions, who were concerned about losing jobs to China. At the time I was thinking whether India or Africa could rise as a manufacturing base, perhaps replacing China. No such luck, as I have learned. I asked Arab refugees in Boston: “They have a big population. Why can’t they sit down and assemble iPhones, as Chinese have done?”  They were tongue-tied. One could manage to say, “My government would not allow it.” To which I asked, “Why not?  Your government will be able to tax and increase revenue.”  He could not answer further. Later I learned on my own that his nation (Algeria), as well as neighboring Morocco, has no personal income tax.
(d) Culture is important, even critical, to economic rise. Few nations have made it (consistently) in the last century (only the four dragons). I have observed China long enough. There are deep flaws, in my view, in China’s culture(s). For instance, from a biological standpoint, it is unwise to pull hair from an Angora rabbit that one will keep for future hair, because hair follicles are damaged in the process. The pulling is kind of like killing a goose for the eggs. Sure this is isolated. But connecting myriad of dots can make out a bigger picture.
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