Jared Diamond, That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer. New York Times, Jan 29, 2013.
www.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/scien ... ng-lifes-risks.html
Quote:
(a) “You see, falls are a common cause of death in older people like me. (I’m 75.) * * * ’Really!’ you may object. ‘What’s my risk of falling in the shower? One in a thousand?’ My answer: Perhaps, but that’s not nearly good enough.
(b) “This calculation illustrates the biggest single lesson that I’ve learned from 50 years of field work on the island of New Guinea: the importance of being attentive to hazards that carry a low risk each time but are encountered frequently.
“I first became aware of the New Guineans’ attitude toward risk on a trip into a forest when I proposed pitching our tents under a tall and beautiful tree. To my surprise, my New Guinea friends absolutely refused. They explained that the tree was dead and might fall on us.
“Yes, I had to agree, it was indeed dead. But I objected that it was so solid that it would be standing for many years. The New Guineans were unswayed, opting instead to sleep in the open without a tent.
“I thought that their fears were greatly exaggerated, verging on paranoia. In the following years, though, I came to realize that every night that I camped in a New Guinea forest, I heard a tree falling. And when I did a frequency/risk calculation, I understood their point of view.
“Consider: If you’re a New Guinean living in the forest, and if you adopt the bad habit of sleeping under dead trees whose odds of falling on you that particular night are only 1 in 1,000, you’ll be dead within a few years. In fact, my wife was nearly killed by a falling tree last year, and I’ve survived numerous nearly fatal situations in New Guinea.
“I now think of New Guineans’ hypervigilant attitude toward repeated low risks as ‘constructive paranoia’: a seeming paranoia that actually makes good sense. Now that I’ve adopted that attitude, it exasperates many of my American and European friends.
(c) “Traditional New Guineans have to think clearly about dangers because they have no doctors, police officers or 911 dispatchers to bail them out.
Note:
(a) Jared Diamond
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond
is a noted author. I started paying attention to him when I read
Jared M Diamond, Linguistics: Taiwan's gift to the world. Nature 403, 709-710 (2000)
www.scribd.com/doc/38601813/Jare ... s-gift-to-the-world |