新作戰計畫 國軍保台不靠美軍

choi

Contrast (1) 呂昭隆, 新作戰計畫 國軍保台不靠美軍. 旺報, July 23, 2018.
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20180723000061-260301

Note: China Times Group 中國時報集團 established Want Daily 旺報 in 2009. Founded in 1950 in Taiwan, China Times Group was sold in 2008 to 旺旺集團董事長蔡衍明 Eng-Meng Tsai personally and had name changed t 旺旺中時媒體集團.  

with (2) Matt Rivers, Steven Jiang and Ben Westcott, Taiwan Vulnerable to Chinese Invasion Without US, Foreign Minister Says. CNN, July 23, 2018.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/23/a ... iew-intl/index.html

(3) secondary material.
(a) 黄春梅, 蔡英文：台湾防卫是自身责任. RFA, July 23, 2018.
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yat ... 07232018095252.html
(b) 台湾外长：若无美国支持，台易被中国大陆武力占领. VOA Chinese, July 23, 2018.
https://www.voachinese.com/a/new ... 180723/4494990.html

My comment:
(i) 林郁方 is a KMT stalwart.
(ii) The report quotes
黃奎博, 美國會出兵援臺？川普的回答露餡了. Yahoo論壇, July 22, 2018
https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E3%80 ... D%94-014138236.html
("台湾政治大学国际事务学院副院长黄奎博22日在yahoo论坛上以“美国会出兵援台，川普的回答露馅了”为为发表文章。文中指出，美中开战的冲突强度一定远远超过美国对伊拉克战争，而且美国航母群势必会接近中国大陆的战场，一艘航母动辄载有5.6千人，万一遭击沉后果不堪设想，美国在亚太的军事基地也将变成解放军跨海攻击的重点，预测美军的死伤可能超过对伊拉克战争的阵亡总人数，如果这些推测接近真实，任何理性的美国领导人都很难做出兵援台的决定")

The scenario in the quotation will happen only if China both conducts a pre-emptive, surprise attack on US forces in East Asia, and succeeds. But it is very difficult to do that in the age of satellites. China's dilemma in military expedition to Taiwan is always: without pre-emptive strikes on US (as well as Japan nowadays), what if its (Chinese) expeditionary forces are attacked in the flanks?

(The黃奎博 essay opens with the news: "美國某電視新聞網的主持人本（7）月18日在節目中問美國總統川普（Donald J. Trump）：「為什麼我兒子該去蒙特內哥羅，幫助他們抵禦攻擊？」川普回答說：「我懂你說的，因為我也問過同樣的問題。」")