中美贸易战：特朗普总统前经济智囊称美国付出代价更大

choi

BBC Chinese, Aug 1, 2019
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-49195855

, which is translated from

Trump's Former Top Adviser: Tariffs Backfiring on US. BBC, Aug 1, 2019.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49187126

Quote:

(a) " * * * Gary Cohn told Radio 4's Today programme [of BBC].

"The trade war was 'a very convenient excuse' for China to slow down its overheated economy, he added.

"Mr Cohn, a free trade advocate, resigned from the Trump administration in March 2018.

"The 59-year-old former president of Goldman Sachs bank was an unusual hire for Mr Trump because he was a Democrat in a Republican administration.

"He also focused on economic internationalism, while the president was set on economic nationalism.

"Mr Cohn served as director of the National Economic Council in the Trump administration from January 2017 to April 2018 [a position requiring no senate confirmation; succeeded by Larry Kidlow] * * *

(b) " 'I think the Chinese economy was going to slow down with or without a trade war,' Mr Cohn said.

(c) "But he [Cohn] warned: 'I think everyone loses in a trade war. We are an 80% service economy. The service side of the economy is doing very well, because, guess what, it's not being tariffed.'

"Mr Cohn said the tariffs had made it expensive to import vital products from China, counteracting the effects of Mr Trump's tax cuts, which were designed to stimulate the US economy.

My comment:
(a) Gary Cohn (investment banker)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Cohn_(investment_banker)
(born in 1960 in City of Shaker Height, a Cleveland, Ohio suburb; BS in business management from American University at DC [no master's or PhD’ O do not know his grades in college, but he might barely made it, being dyslexic]; started working for Goldman Sachs in 1990 and became president and Co-Chief Operating Officer in 2006 [until he worked in White House for Trump])
(i) Compare Lloyd Blankfein (1954- , Goldman Sachs chairman and chief executive 2006-2018)
(ii) Prashanth Perumal and Bryan Logan, The Rise of Gary Cohn, from Midwestern Kid to Goldman Sachs Boss — Who Is Now Leaving the Trump Administration. BusinessIndider.com, Mar 6, 2018.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ ... rump-adviser-2017-1
("Cohn read McMillan's 'Options as a Strategic Investment' in a few days to learn about options and cracked the interview — to get the job of a runner in the trading floor")
(A) Lawrence G McMillan, Options as a Strategic Investment. 2nd ed (1086); 3rd ed (1993); 4th ed (2001); 5th ed (2012; the latest)
(B) About Us. McMillan Analysis Corporation, undated
https://www.optionstrategist.com/about-us
("Founded by professional trader and best-selling author, Lawrence G. McMillan, McMillan Analysis Corporation ('MAC'), a registered investment adviser and commodity trading adviser, has been providing options-oriented advice, money management, and education since 1990. Known synonymously by its website name, OptionStrategist.com")
(C) Runner. Investopedia, undatedhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/runner.asp

Bernard Condon and Don Babwin, The Trading Pit Era Is Officially Ending. Associated Press, July 6, 2015
https://www.businessinsider.com/ ... ially-ending-2015-7
("That roar will soon go silent. On Monday, most futures pits in Chicago [Chicago Mercantile Exchange] and New York, where frenzied buying and selling once helped set prices on cattle and corn, palladium and gold, and dozens of other commodities, are expected to close for good. * * * now the computer — faster, cheaper and not nearly as noisy — has taken over. * * * Dan Grant, 53, traces his love affair with the pits to a $150-a-week job as a 'runner' ferrying messages between clerks taking phone orders from customers and brokers executing them")
(D) Condon (surname)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condon_(surname)
("The name is derived from the Anglo-Norman name de Caunteton, which came to Ireland in the 12th Century with the invader Nicholas de Caunteton"_

William I or the Conqueror led Normans to invade England in 1066. Anglo-Normans invaded Ireland in 1169 (successfully).
(E) Once upon a time in Boston, I tried to read a book of options, but can not finish a page, which is chock full of calculus.

(b) The quotation (b) is unclear about Mr Cohn's assessment of China's economy slowing down: Is it a good or bad thing for China? In quotation (a) He said Chinese economy is overheated/ In that sense, slowing down might be good for China. But personally I simply do not think Chinese economy is overheated.
(c) I simply disagree with Mr Cohn on quotation (c).  Today, President Trump imposes 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion imports, starting September, 2019. Quotation (c) implies Cohn means only American manufacturers are affected by tariff so far, not service sector. But, tariff has increased cost for Apple computers and Barbie dolls, which will certainly affect service sector what transport or sell the imports.

````````````````````````sEPARATELY
BBC also posTs various video slips of the same interview (on various subjects), one of which is Trump's Former Economic Adviser, Gary Cohn, on Trade, Brexit and Racism. Aug 1, 2019
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/worl ... e-brexit-and-racism
("When asked if the US president was a racist, Gary Cohn said: 'Donald Trump is Donald Trump, and what you see is what you get' ")

Whatever it (quotation) means -- does he evade the question, or suggests that is also the same Trump in private -- I do not know. In any event, there is no need to view the video, I guess.