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中国城镇化大跃进:2.5亿农民涌向城市

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发表于 6-24-2013 11:40:24 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 choi 于 6-24-2013 15:58 编辑

Ian Johnson, 中国城镇化大跃进:2.5亿农民涌向城市. 纽约时报中文网, June 24, 2013
http://cn.nytimes.com/china/20130624/c24chinaurban/

, which is translated from

Ian Johnson, China Embarking on Vast Program of Urbanization; Goal: economic growth; A 12-year plan requires moving 250 million rural residents. New York Times, June 16, 2013 (front page; in the series Leaving the Land; The great uprooting).

(a) Excerpt in the window of print: "If half of China's population starts consuming, growth is inevitable."  Li Xiangyang, vice director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics

(b) Quote:

"China is pushing ahead with a sweeping plan to move 250 million rural residents into newly constructed towns and cities over the next dozen years

"some fear rural China is once again the site of radical social engineering.

"The ultimate goal of the government’s modernization plan is to fully integrate 70 percent of the country’s population, or roughly 900 million people, into city living by 2025. Currently, only half that number are.

"Aggressive state spending is planned on new roads, hospitals, schools, community centers — which could cost upward of $600 billion a year, according to economists’ estimates. In addition, vast sums will be needed to pay for the education, health care and pensions of the ex-farmers.

(c) My comment:
(i) Quotations 1 and 3 do not mesh. In the latter, half of 900 million should be 450 million, rather than 250 reported in Quotation 1.
(ii) "Top-down efforts to quickly transform entire societies have often come to grief"

grief (n): "an unfortunate outcome : DISASTER —used chiefly in the phrase come to grief"
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/grief
(iii) I was confused upon reading the (English-language) report a week ago. Presumably the journalist would explain later in the series; or he was as confounded as I (because China might fail to do the explaining). Perhaps some good may come out of the move: for instance, the size of a farm land tended by a farmer will enlarge dramatically, making mechanization possible. However, what about the newly urbanized ex-farmers?  Economics emphasizes comparative advantage. Tian Wei is a factory watchman. Is that the best use of his talent?  If not, China may lose big when multiplying Tian's personal (monetary, if not social) loss by 250 million.
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