China; Economically More or Less Competitive?

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(1) 凝炼 and 李鱼, 贸易顺差预测: 今年德国全球第一 中国跌出前三. Aug 20, 2018
https://www.dw.com/zh/%E8%B4%B8% ... E4%B8%89/a-45147411
(设址慕尼黑的 德国Ifo经济研究所: 鉴于出口强势，今年德国将连续第三年获得全球最大外贸盈余: 2650亿欧元（2990亿美元） * * * 日本以较大差距位居第二，外贸盈余为2000亿美元；荷兰排名第三，盈余1100亿美元")

with (2) Bryan Harris, In the shadow of a Giant. For decades, South Korea has been seen as a model economic development. But now it worries that intense competition from Chinese could lead to a long-term slowdown in growth. Financial Times, Aug 20, 2018 , at page 7.

Quote:

paragraph 1: "In the corridors of power in Seoul, among the policymakers, economists and business people who drives Asia's fourth-largest economy [China>Japan.India], conversation is dominated by one unlikely topic: crisis.

"The limit of 'fast following' [which is the section heading] At the crux of the issue is the notion that South Korea's economic model is no longer competitive.  For decades, the economy boomed -- and citizens prospered -- on the back of a  handful of industrial conglomerates, which proved adept at 'fast following' the manufacturing output of western and Japanese companies, typically at more competitive prices.  Bolstered by government support, the likes of Hyundai and Samsung [the report does not talks about other conglomerates, because they are goners] threw themselves into sectors such as shipbuilding, automobiles and electronics. And proved tremendously successful around the world.  At one point [the graphic shows it was 2011 or 2012 (I can  not tell); but the same also shows the percentage rose rapidly from 35% in 2003] export accounted for more than 55 per cent of South Korea's gross domestic product. Today export remains solid and are worth more than 40 per cent of GDP. But now South Korea's competitive edge now risks being eroded and the culprit sits next door: China.   'South Korea's manufacturing sector is in crisis,' says Oh Se-jung, a member of National Assembly, pointing to the nation's declining global share of shipbuilding, , automobile, steel and even mobile phones. In shipbuilding, for instance, south KJore has seen its market share decline in the past decade from 35  percent to 24 per cent , while China's has almost doubled, according to Clarksons Research.   'South Korea can no longer be competitive using second-move advantages * * * due to the competitive threats from China and Indi. South Korea does not have its own accumulated know-how, either.' [My guess is this is Oh saying.]  The bleak outlook is borne out across the country as industrial hubs shed tens of thousands of jobs.  Ulsan 蔚山廣域市, home to Hyundai's heavy and automobile industries, was once South Korea's fast growing and wealthiest city. Today, it represents the nation's rust belt. * * * Young people are also fleeing [Ulsan]: havig quadrupled since the 1970s, the population of Ulsan began to decline in 2016.

"In hot demand from global technology companies that requires ever-greater data storage, memory chips have underpinned Samsung's soaring profits for the past year. They have also propped up the nation's exports. According to Hyundai Research Institute, semiconductors have accounted for as much as 20 per cent of exports so far this year, up from 12 percent in 2016.  But Chinese groups are eagerly eyeing the sector -- and they have government backing. * * * 'On the export side, we have a problem: our biggest customer [China] has become our competitor,' says Peter Kim, an investment strategist at Mirae Asset Management in Seoul. 'The only thing holding up right now is semiconductors.' " (the brackets surrounding China is original.)

"Rapid ageing [which is section heading] Demographics remain one of South Korea's biggest challenges * * * The nation of 50m has one of the world's most rapidly-ageing population. The demographic crunch, combined with the threat to industry from China, has prompted many to believe South Korea is destined for a prolonged period reduced growth and inflation -- a situation that Japan has experienced for the past two decades.  'We cannot avoid what Japan has gone through,' said Park Chong-hoon, head of research at Standard Chartered in Seoul. 'The key now is how we can minimise [American spelling: minimize] the impact of Japanisation and how we can delay Japanisation.' * * * [Korea has an advantage:] '[South] Korea has one of the soundest fiscal positions [ie, budget deficit] among advanced economics,' she [Zoli] says." (The brackets around South in the last internal quotation is original -- not added by me.)

Note: This report occupies almost a full page-- with a big photo, though.