Handicapping China's Economy, Quantitatively

choi

Emily Kaiser,  Analysis: Dragon Tail Risk: The cost of a China crash. Reuters, Oct 24, 2011
http://www.reuters.com/article/2 ... USTRE79N31320111024

Quote:

"A full-blown crash, which BofA-Merrill described as a 6 percentage point drop in China's real per capita GDP * * * BofA-Merrill considers the risk of a China crash negligible -- a 0.13 percent probability event.

"Jim Walker, founder of Hong Kong-based consultancy Asianomics, said it would be a 'miracle' if China's 2012 GDP slows to just 7 percent. 'We're really looking for something much, much worse than that," he said. "China will be lucky to get away with 5 percent.'

China itself invested little into the 10 ASEAN countries, but "There is considerably more money flowing the other way. Since 1995, ASEAN has invested about $75 billion in China, with Singapore far and away the most exposed, accounting for $62 billion of that."

Note: tail risk
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tail_risk