UK’s Risky Obsession With US Decline: FT

choi

吉迪恩•拉赫曼, 英国人眼中的帝国兴衰. 金融时报, Apr 9, 2015
www.ftchinese.com/story/001061450
("在幕后，很多英国政策制定者在工作中似乎也抱着这种假设：中国的继续崛起和美国的相对衰落都是不可避免的。因此，他们做出的决定反映出英国正谨慎适应这种实力的变迁。英国最近违背美国，决定加入由中国主导的亚洲基础设施投资银行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank，简称：亚投行），就是一种迹象")

Note:
(a) “ '罗马衰落了；巴比伦衰落了；现在轮到海恩赫德了。'  萧伯纳(George Bernard Shaw)在戏剧《错姻缘》(Misalliance)中的这句名言，是在提醒1910年英国戏院的观众，所有帝国最终都会衰落和灭亡。海恩赫德是英国的一个小村子，对于内含的严肃观点，它提供了轻松的伪装。"
(i) Misalliance
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misalliance
(a play written in 1909–1910; The play takes place entirely on a single Saturday afternoon in the conservatory of a large country house in Hindhead, Surrey in Edwardian era England)
(ii) Hindhead
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindhead
(The place-name "Hindhead" is first attested in 1571, and means "hill frequented by hinds [qv]", or female deer)
(iii) The quotation in Misalliance: "The writing is on the wall. Rome fell. Babylon fell. Hindhead's turn will come."
(iv) "海恩赫德是英国的一个小村子，对于内含的严肃观点，它提供了轻松的伪装。"

English original: The fact that Hindhead is an English village was a light-hearted cloak for a serious point [an analogy to the British Empire].
(v) The English original is

Gideon Rachman, UK’s Risky Obsession With US Decline. Financial Times, Apr 6, 2015.

(b) "作为一位爱尔兰人，萧伯纳可能会感到比英国人更容易拿大英帝国的衰落开玩笑。* * * 在有关美国未来实力的长期辩论中，影响力最大的一些 '衰落论者' 是在美国大学工作的英国历史学家：耶鲁大学(Yale)的保罗•肯尼迪(Paul Kennedy)、哈佛大学(Harvard)的尼尔•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)以及斯坦福大学(Stanford)的伊恩•莫里斯(Ian Morris)。
(i) Paul Kennedy
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Kennedy
(1945- ; In 1983 he was named the J Richardson Dilworth professor of British History at Yale)
(ii) Ian Morris (historian)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Morris_(historian)
(1960- ; From 1987 through 1995. he taught at the University of Chicago, and since 1995 he has been at Stanford; section 2 Books: Ian Morris, Why the West Rules—For Now; The patterns of jistory, and what they reveal about the future. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2010)

(c) "肯尼迪的著作《大国的兴衰》(The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers)在1987年出版 * * * 上世纪80年代末是预算赤字高企和工业衰落的时期，他当时指出，与之前的西班牙和英国一样，美国也逃不过“帝国过度扩张”的命运，这一看法在那时似乎特别具有说服力。他套用萧伯纳的句子预测道：'罗马衰落了；巴比伦衰落了；现在轮到斯卡斯代尔了。' ”
(i) "Rome fell; Babylon fell; Scarsdale's turn will come." The sentence appeared in the 1987 book, at page 533.
(ii) Scottsdale, Arizona
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottsdale,_Arizona
(Named Scottsdale in 1894 after founder Winfield Scott)

(d) "研究大英帝国和其他帝国的历史学家弗格森 * * * 的著作《巨人：美利坚帝国的兴衰》(Colossus: Rise and Fall of the American Empire)于2004年问世，当时美国正在伊拉克陷入困境。后来，弗格森提出：'21世纪将属于中国。' ”

Come on, it was just a debate, where somebody's got to take a position. See Munk Debates
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munk_Debates
(debates are run by the Aurea Foundation, a charitable foundation set up by Peter Munk; June 17, 2011, The 21st century will belong to China, pro: Niall Ferguson and David Daokui Li 李稻葵; con: Henry Kissinger and Fareed Zakaria)

(e) "身在美国的英国教授同时具备丰富的知识和超然的态度，可以不受干扰地看清美国的未来。另外一种可能是，他们将大英帝国的命运过度套用到更为稳健的后继者美国身上。哈佛大学教授、美国人约瑟夫•奈(Joseph Nye)指出：'到一战爆发时，根据国内生产总值(GDP)衡量，英国仅在大国中名列第四……在军事开支方面名列第三。'  相比之下，美国现在仍是全球最大或第二大经济体（这取决于你所选择的衡量标准），而且在军事预算方面轻松占据全球第一的位置。"
(i)
(A) I can not find nominal GDP (according to exchange rate) in or about 1913.
(B) Angus Maddison statistics of the ten largest economies by GDP (PPP)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_Maddison_statistics_of_the_ten_largest_economies_by_GDP_(PPP)
(GDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars--1913: US 517,383 > No 2 China 241,341 > German Empire 237,332 > Russian Empire 232,351 > No 5 UK 224,618 > India 204,242 > No 7 144,489 > Italy 95,487 > No 9 Japan 71,653)

Maddison used modern boundaries--rather than the national boundaries in 1913----because India was separate from UK.
(ii) History of the United Kingdom during World War I
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_Kingdom_during_World_War_I
(section 8 Economy: On the whole the British successfully managed the economics of the war. * * * The economy (in terms of GDP) grew about 14% from 1914 to 1918 despite the absence of so many men in the services; by contrast the German economy shrank 27%. * * * The war forced Britain to use up its financial reserves and borrow large sums from the US. Shipments of American raw materials and food allowed Britain to feed itself and its army while maintaining his productivity. The financing was generally successful, as the City's strong financial position minimized the damaging effects of inflation, as opposed to much worse conditions in Germany. * * * In Scotland, the shipbuilding industry expanding by a third")
(iii) Stephen Broadberry and Kevin H O'Rourke (eds), The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present. Cambridge University Press, 2010 at page 253
books.google.com/books?id=YHk0z-ujS3AC&pg=PA253&lpg=PA253&dq=1913+gdp+nominal+"german+empire"&source=bl&ots=6P9WyrlRlc&sig=0wakR4H5KmqNQAWyTM_KW1QJa-g&hl=en&sa=X&ei=VjcnVbP4ELCasQS2kICYAg&ved=0CCIQ6AEwAjgK#v=onepage&q=1913 gdp nominal "german empire"&f=false
("The typical measure of purchasing power is GDP per capita. The UK was clearly the richest country in Europe in 1913, with almost $ 5,000 measured in 1990 dollars (Maddison 2001). IN the next group, between $ 3,500 and $ 4,500, we find Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, France, and Austria. The poorest countries were those in the Balkans, Turkey, and the Russian Empire")