Geopolitics: India and China

choi

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Interview with Robert Kaplan/ YOICHI FUNABASHI, Editor in Chief: China, India to compete over various interests in Indian Ocean. Asahi Shimbun, May 22, 2010.
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201005210394.html

Note:
(1) George Curzon, 1st Marquess Curzon of Kedleston
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Curzon,_1st_Marquess_Curzon_of_Kedleston
(1859-1925; Viceroy of India 1899-1905)

Quote:

"In the context of the Great Game between the British and Russian Empires for control of Central Asia, he held deep mistrust of Russian intentions. This led him to encourage British trade in Persia, and he paid a visit to the Persian Gulf in 1903. At the end of that year, he sent a British expedition to Tibet under Francis Younghusband, ostensibly to forestall a Russian advance. After bloody conflicts with Tibet's poorly-armed defenders, the mission penetrated to Lhasa, where a treaty was signed in September 1904. No Russian presence was found in Lhasa.

"The Great Game was directly and indirectly responsible for shaping Curzon’s geopolitical strategy when it came to Central Asia, with the protection of Britain’s most valuable colony, India, as the prime goal.

(2) Karakoram mountain range 喀喇昆仑山脉
(a) etymology:
(i) zh.ikipedia.org states 突厥语意为“黑色岩山.”
(ii) Encyclopedia.com quotes
John Everett-Heath, Concise Dictionary of World Place-Names. Oxford, 2005, as saying

"Karakoram, Central Asia A mountain range that spreads over parts of Afghanistan, China, India, Pakistan, and Tajikistan and has a Turkic name meaning ‘Black Mountain’ from kara and koram ‘mountain’, a reference to their appearance.

(b) Karakoram "includ[es] K2, the second highest peak of the world (8,611 m/28,251 ft). K2 is just 237 m (778 ft) lower than the 8,848 m (29,029 ft) tall Mount Everest.

K2 is northwest of Mt Everest, with both along the India-China border. See
World Map Of Major Mountains
http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-major-mountain.htm

There's also this very cultural assertiveness in India, a real sense that "we are unique."

(3) Over-the-horizon radar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-horizon_radar
(The most common method of constructing an OTH radar is the use of ionospheric reflection, with the high frequency (HF) or shortwave part of the spectrum from 3-30 MHz; the range was extended to 3000 miles; with the end of Cold War, US dismantled its OTH)

To give you an idea, the air distance between Boston, Massachusetts and San Diego, California is 2,582 miles.

(4) Major Lawrence Spinetta, The Malacca Dilemma - Countering China's "String of Pearls" with Land-Based Air Power. School of Advbanced Air and Space Studies, Air University, 2006 (thesis).
https://www.afresearch.org/skins/rims/display.aspx?moduleid=be0e99f3-fc56-4ccb-8dfe-670c0822a153&mode=user&action=lresearch&objectid=d86e199a-4028-4710-af3b-a0c6c2b4c765
(From the abstract: "Eighty percent of China’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Malacca; the Chinese leadership calls this strategic weakness the 'Malacca Dilemma'")  

(5) The interview next deals with "Hormuz dilemma" for India. Mr. Kaplan replied, "I think the Indians are worried about Chinese-Pakistani collusion in the strait [of Hormuz]."

Pakistan is not close to the Strait. See the world map in the right column of
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan

The air distance between Karachi, Pakistan and Bubai, United Arab Emirates, is 737 miles.
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/distanceresult.html?p1=757&p2=776

(6) Karwar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karwar
(a town)
(7) Malabar coast
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:India_Malabar_Coast_locator_map.svg

(a) Malabar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malabar
("The name is thought to be derived from the Malayalam word Mala (Hill) and Puram (region) derived or westernised into bar")
(8) Lombok Strait
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombok_Strait
("located between the islands of Bali [west of the strait] and Lombok [east] in Indonesia")
(9) Sunda Strait
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_Strait
(the strait between the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra. It connects the Java Sea to the Indian Ocean. The name comes from the Indonesian term Pasundan, meaning "West Java.")

The Lombok and Sunda Straits are ALTERNATIVES to Strait of Malacca.

(10) Mr. Kaplan talks about "bringing natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan down to Karachi." See the map in
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenistan
(11) Mr. Kaplan remarks, "Japan has about four times as many warships as the United Kingdom, when you count them. And if it's not four times as much, it will be because the British navy is going downhill very fast. Even though it only gives 1 percent of its GDP to the military, Japan has a great navy."


My comment:
(a) I assume this board will tolerate, if not welcome, a posting about geopolitics. After all, the interviewee, Mr. Kaplan, have a book out in the fall. See (3) below--specifically the introduction to the author.
(b) It seems to me that the interview presents a bird's-eye view and incisive. It turns out that Mr. Kaplan is not only a journalist but also a scholar.
(b) The current issue of Foreign Affairs magazine blared on its cover: "China's Grand Map." Underneath those words are Mr. Kaplan's name and title of his article (as well as those of a few minor authors).

Robert D. Kaplan, The Geography of Chinese Power; How Far Can Beijing Reach on Land and at Sea? Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66205/robert-d-kaplan/the-geography-of-chinese-power

Note:
(a) Only the first paragraph is freely provided for non-subscribers.
(b) Halford Mackinder
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halford_Mackinder
(1861-1947; an English geographer and is considered one of the founding fathers of both geopolitics and geostrategy)

Quote: "In 1904 Mackinder gave a paper on 'The Geographical Pivot of History' at the Royal Geographical Society, in which he formulated the Heartland Theory [8]. This is often considered as a, if not the, founding moment of Geopolitics as a field of study, although Mackinder did not use the term. Whilst the Heartland Theory initially received little attention outside geography, this theory would later exerc[is]e some influence on the foreign policies of world powers

"His next major work, Democratic ideals and reality: a study in the politics of reconstruction, appeared in 1919.

(c) frontage (n): "1a: a piece of land that lies adjacent (as to a street or the ocean) b: the land between the front of a building and the street"  
(d) hysterics (n): "a fit of uncontrollable laughter or crying"

Both English definitions are from www.m-w.com.

(e) Understandably this article has a section for Taiwan, with the heading Straight to Taiwan. Here is the first paragraph.

"Most important to the advent of a Greater China is the future of Taiwan. The issue of Taiwan is often discussed in moral terms: Beijing talks about the need to consolidate the national patrimony and unify China for the good of all ethnic Chinese; Washington talks about preserving this model democracy. But the real issue is something else. As US General Douglas MacArthur put it, Taiwan is an ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ midway up China’s seaboard. From there, say the naval strategists [James] Holmes and [Toshi] Yoshihara [of the U.S. Naval War College at Newport, Rhode Island], an outside power such as the United States can 'radiate' power along China's coastal periphery. If Taiwan returned to the bosom of mainland China, the Chinese navy not only would suddenly be in an advantageous strategic position vis-à-vis the first island chain but also would be freed up to project power beyond it to an unprecedented degree. The adjective 'multipolar' is thrown around liberally to describe the next world order; only the fusing of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland would mark the real emergence of a multipolar military order in East Asia.

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