Reunification by Trade?

choi

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Taiwan and China: Reunification by trade? A plethora of free-trade deals is
driving Taiwan closer to China. The Economist, Aug 6, 2009.
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14191252

My comment: Always in favor od free trade, I am not worried.


---------------Separately
(1) Asia's quest for wealth: Going for growth. The Economist, July 30, 2009
http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14120062
("Mr Schuman goes to some lengths to show that many of Asia’s successes
happened after different industries threw off the heavy hand of the state."

My comment:
(a) This article is a book review on The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia’s
Quest for Wealth. By Michael Schuman)
(b) The quote demonstrates a new thinking. The conventional wisdom is the
despotic governments in East Asia (including Singapore but except Hong kong)
guided industrial growth. In Taiwan, however, people of all walks, not just
industrialists, tried hard to evade government constraints, according to my
obsersation back in Taiwan.

(2) The Chinese car industry: The ambition of Geely; A Chinese carmaker
shrugs off the global downturn. The Economist, July 30, 2009.
("The firm says its sales for the six months to the end of June reached 138,
000, fuelled partly by government tax breaks aimed at boosting demand for
the smaller cars made by China’s indigenous manufacturers")

My comment: Despite China's economic stimulus, only 138,000 car sold,
including overseas? Chinese have boasted about Geely for years. I did not
know its sale was so little.

--

choi

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Last night, I read the book, which devoted a chapter to Taiwan (Stan Shih of Acer, bureaucrat KT Li and Morris Chang of TSMC), two chapters to China (one for Deng Xiaoping and the other, Lenovo).

I was struck by a table at page xxiv in the Introduction.

"THE MIRACLE CREATED BY AN ALMOST UNBELIEVABLE INCREASE IN WEALTH

GROWTH OF GROSS NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA 9IN CURRENT US$)

COUNTRY------------1965---------2007---------PERCENT CHANGE
South Korea -------130----------19,690-------15,046%
Taiwan-------------204----------15,078-------7,291%
Singapore----------540----------32,470-------5,913%
Hong Kong----------710----------31,610-------4,352%
Japan--------------890----------37,670-------4,133%
Thailand-----------130----------3,400--------2,515%
China--------------100----------2,360--------2,260%
Indonesia*---------70-----------1,650--------2,257%
Malaysia-----------330----------6,540--------1,882%
India--------------110----------950----------764%

* Earliest year available is 1969.
Source: World Bank; Taiwan Directorate general of Budget, Accounting and Statistics


My comment:
(a) Gross national income (GNI)
http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1176

The take-home message is GNI is close to GDP. Further, the figures look as if calculated by exchange rate, rather than adjusted by purchasing power parity. S Korea devalued its currency by 40% early this year; on the contrary, China appreciated renminbi by 20% from 2006 to 2008 (inclusive).

(b) World Bank does not compile data on Taiwan , for Taiwan is not its member. That is why the author resorted to Taiwan's DGBAS for pertinent data.
(c) The author has not worked at the Philippines. The living standard of the Philippines in 1965 should be higher than that of Taiwan. I am surprised that GNI per capita in Malaysia of 1965 was 50% higher than Taiwan's, for around 1980 parents of my kindergarten friend (a girl) barred her from marrying her boyfriend (of Chinese descent but born in Malaysia) by chaining her inside the house.


【 在 choi (choi) 的大作中提到: 】
* * *
---------------Separately
(1) Asia's quest for wealth: Going for growth. The Economist, July 30, 2009
http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14120062
("Mr Schuman goes to some lengths to show that many of Asia’s successes
happened after different industries threw off the heavy hand of the state."
* * *

【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: Taiwan and China: Reunification by trade? A plethora of free-trade deals is
: driving Taiwan closer to China. The Economist, Aug 6, 2009.
: http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14191252
: My comment: Always in favor od free trade, I am no
: (以下引言省略...)

--
※ 来源:．一路BBS http://yilubbs.com [FROM: 128.197.0.0]

※ 修改:．choi 于 Aug  8 15:37:54 修改本文．[FROM: 128.197.0.0]

lihlii

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

Choi: Always in favor od free trade, I am not worried.

你是个右派，不知道除了经济效益，还有社会公正问题。

经济学上看，自由贸易是整体效益最优。但整体效益最优不等于局部都是最优。某些情况下，自由贸易会伤害局部最优，妨害社会公正。

比如，当奴工产品自由贸易的时候，输入奴工产品的国家的竞争性行业的劳工，必然面临巨大的冲击，生活水准骤然下降。这时候，发达国家的底层人民，会为上层商人集团从自由贸易中获取的利益付出惨重的代价。

所以，不可迷信自由贸易。因为社会的幸福，并不仅仅由经济效益指标评判。迷信自由贸易原则，经济至上，“发展才是硬道理”的人们，是还有社会达尔文主义在经济学上的癌症，是政治专制癌症的扩散。

正因为如此，关于台湾和菲律宾，马来西亚的生活水准，或者更确切的说，是居民的主观感受，和经济学数据的比较冲突，让你感到不可思议。

【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: Taiwan and China: Reunification by trade? A plethora of free-trade deals is
: driving Taiwan closer to China. The Economist, Aug 6, 2009.
: http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14191252
: My comment: Always in favor od free trade, I am no
: (以下引言省略...)


※ 修改:．lihlii 于 Aug  8 15:49:00 修改本文．[FROM: 82.210.0.0]