An Update on China's Nuclear Subs

choi

Hans M Kristensen, China SSBN Fleet Getting Ready – But For What?  FAS Strategic Security Blog, Apr 25, 2014.blogs.fas.org/security/2014/04/chinassbnfleet/

My comment:
(a) This blog is lengthy. You need not read it.
(b) "South Sea Fleet base at Longpo on Hainan Island"  海南省定安县定城镇 龙坡村, on 三亚市亚龙湾.

Two points in the blog about this base:

"The Longpo base does not have a dry dock so nuclear submarines would have to sail to another base for maintenance or repair."

About a roofed railway: "Before a roof was constructed to conceal the land-tunnel into the submarine cave, the rail tracks into the tunnel were visible on satellite images."

(c)
(i) This blog never discussed JL-2 missiles (such as whether the submarines deployed the missiles. The blog only showed photos that displayed opned tubes, with nothing inside.

"A new satellite image taken in October 2013 (above) shows a Jin SSBN in dry dock at the Bohai shipyard in Huludao. Two [a pair of white circles] of the submarine’s 12 missile tubes are open.

"In this image from November 30, 2013, a Jin-class SSBN can be seen flashing its 12 missile tubes while docked at Longpo naval base on Hainan Island."
(ii) Except in Xiaopingdao where missiles are texted (and are not ready for deployment yet): "Xiaopingdao Submarine Refit Base * * * This base is used to prepare the submarines for operational service and is where test missiles are loaded into the launch tubes for test launches from the Bohai Sea across China into the Qinghai desert.

(d) "And the DOD assessment that the Jins “will give the PLA Navy its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent” is probably premature and certainly depends on what is meant by 'credible.'”

choi

Bill Gertz, Three Chinese Nuclear Missile Submarines Photographed in South China Sea. Washington Free Beacon, May 28, 2014.
freebeacon.com/national-security/three-chinese-nuclear-missile-submarines-photographed-in-south-china-sea/
("Regarding the [three] missile submarines [according to a recent photo of the vessels that appeared on the Internet], Andrei Pinkov, a military analyst with Kanwa Defense who reported on the submarines May 1, said the three submarines at Hainan are a sign Beijing is speeding up the pace of deployments. Also, a review of the photo indicates that one of the three submarines could be a more advanced missile submarine called the Type 096, based on an analysis of the length of missile submarines, he stated in his journal Kanwa Defense Review")

My comment: There is no need to read the rest of this lengthy report, which is familiar.