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The Economics Underpinning Geopolitics

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楼主
发表于 2-1-2015 14:32:39 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
John Steele Gordon, Raw Materials for War. In 1909, a best-seller argued that financial interdependence made war self-defeating. A century of global conflict followed. Wall Street Journal, Jan 30, 2015
www.wsj.com/articles/book-review ... acdonald-1422576993
(book review on James Macdonald, When Globalization Failed. The rise and fall of Pax Americana. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015)

Note:
(1) “when Prussia triumphed over France in 1870-71, it drove a very hard peace. Prussia required a huge indemnity of five billion gold francs from France and the cession of Alsace-Lorraine, most of which had been part of France for more than 200 years. France quickly paid off the indemnity, but the loss of Alsace-Lorraine poisoned relations between France and the new German empire for the next four decades. In the Place de la Concorde in Paris, the statue representing Strasbourg as one of the 12 cities of France was wreathed in mourning until 1918. Kaiser Wilhelm II never saw Paris: The French would not have him.”
(a) Alsace: “Medieval Latin Alsatia, from Old High German *Ali-sazzo ‘inhabitant of the other (bank of the Rhine),’ from Proto-Germanic *alja "other" + Old High German -sazzo ‘inhabitant,’ literally ‘one who sits.’"
www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=Alsace
(b) Lorraine: “from Medieval Latin Lotharingia, literally ‘Lothar's Realm,’ name later given to the northern portion of the lands assigned by the Treaty of Verdun (843 CE) to Lothair I in the first division of the Carolingian empire. His empire stretched from the North Sea to the Mediterranean. Before his death (855 C.E.), Lothair subdivided his lands among his three sons. His son, Lothair [II] (for whom the region is named), was given Lotharingia as his kingdom”
www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=Lorraine
(i) Lothair
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lothair
(a Germanic given name [with etymology])
(ii) Lothair I
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lothair_I
(795-855; Emperor of the Romans 817–855; The territory of Lorraine (Lothringen in German) is named after him [yes, this is different from that in Etymonline.com]; his grandfather [was] Charlemagne)
(c) Place de la Concorde
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Place_de_la_Concorde
(the largest square in the French capital; In French Revolution: "The new revolutionary government erected the guillotine in the square, and it was here that King Louis XVI was executed on Jan 21, 1793; section 2 Features: At each of the eight angles of the octagonal Place is a statue * * * representing a French city
(d) In-depth discussion of Franco-Prussian War will be discussed in a separate posting.
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沙发
 楼主| 发表于 2-1-2015 14:34:20 | 只看该作者
(2) “Why did Germany insist on taking a relatively small chunk of territory, an act guaranteed to provoke an intense and unremitting irredentism in one of Europe’s great powers? The answer, according to Mr Macdonald, was iron ore. Coal and iron were the two basic commodities that drove the early Industrial Revolution. And while Germany, rapidly industrializing by the 1870s, had plenty of coal, it lacked a domestic iron-ore supply. Lorraine had iron ore.”
(a) Yong Ho ROH, The Rise of the Ruhr Area, Germany's Industrial Heartland, in the 19th Century. International Program, Korean Minjok Leadership Academy, 2007
www.zum.de/whkmla/sp/0708/yongho/yongho2.html

Quote:

“Until the mid-nineteenth century, the Ruhr area had not been anticipated to grow to be the industrial hub essential to the European economy. Its cities such as Duisburg, Essen, and Dortmund had only moderate size of population in 1800: about 4,000 residents each. The area was overall rural [Then steel making changed the fate] * * * "during the second half of the [19th] century [but not in the first half], the Ruhr area showed dramatic increase in its scale of coal and iron industry, thus transforming itself into the massive industrial core of great renown. Not only to Germany did it grow in importance but to the whole Europe. Especially Germany's neighboring countries, such as France, Luxembourg, Belgium, and Netherlands, had their industries much dependent on the Ruhr’s coal, metallurgical coke, iron, steel.

"As explained in the previous chapter, the metal industry prospered in Siegerland and Sauerland, of which iron ores and swift streams were beneficial. Around the end of the Middle Ages, the blast furnace was introduced and spread so widely that almost all the smelting works in the Sauerland and Siegerland were done in blast furnaces. * * * Coal was mined in the Ruhr area as early as in the thirteenth century and shipped down [up, actually] the Rhine to the Siegerland, then center of the smelting industry.

“Coal was mostly used for heating [before steel industry], not for metal industry. Iron industry also existed in a small scale in the Ruhr area, due to the small quantities of bog iron ore in the marshes of the Lippe and Emscher valleys.

“Coal near the south [of Ruhr region] was near the surface and thus very easy to mine. In contrast, coal to the north went deeper under the ground and was hard to obtain, but it contained more volatile components and thus had more usage than the southern coal.

(i) Korean Minjok Leadership Academy  民族史觀高等學校
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Minjok_Leadership_Academy
(KMLA; co-educational, independent [read: private] boarding high school near the town of Hoengseong, Gangwon 江原[道] 橫城[郡], South Korea, 120 kilometers (75 mi) east of Seoul
(ii) Ruhr: "A region * * * named after the Ruhr River, which flows through it and meets the Rhine River near Duisburg"
www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/Ruhr

How the river got its name, I fail to find out.
(iii) Siegerland
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siegerland
(Iron mining and working began in Siegerland in 600 BC (cf the blast furnace at Wilnsdorf, dated to 500 BC) and continued until 1965, when the closing of Grube Georg (Georg Pit) in Willroth on March 29 ended over 2,500 years of mining)

How did this region get its name? It’s easy: There is a Sieg river up the Rhine (relative to Ruhr river), also on the right bank.
(iv) In quotation 2: blast furnace
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blast_furnace
(China first in the world; section 1.3.2 Oldest European blast furnaces [in Medieval Europe])
(b) FH Hatch, The Jurassic Ironstones of the United Kingdom--economically Considered. The Journal of the Iron and Steel Institute, 97: 71, 72 and n 1 (1918)
books.google.com/books?id=S8c-AQAAMAAJ&pg=PA72&lpg=PA72&dq=lorraine+iron+prussian+war&source=bl&ots=fAAoyVzwmL&sig=DUwqns2S5LI5HmkbbS78c_hJNlo&hl=en&sa=X&ei=CWLOVKv6CcilNvD1g3g&ved=0CFYQ6AEwCA#v=onepage&q=lorraine iron prussian war&f=false
("The embedded oolitic ironstones of Jurassic age have a wide distribution both in this country [United Kingdom] and on the Continent in Luxemburg [Usually spelled Luxembourg] and Lorraine; and it is noteworthy that it was mainly by the exploitation of the portion of the Lorraine iron-basin ceded by France after the Franco-Prussian War that Germany was able to build up the immense iron trade which, in the years immediately preceding the war [World War I], was such a striking feature of her [Germany's] industry.1  It is certain that had not Germany possessed Lorraine she could not have entered upon the present war; and it is significant of the importance placed by her on this iron ore field that her first step, after the commencement of hostilities [in WWI], was the capture from the French of the remaining portion 0the Longwy and Briey basins), the loss of which, so early in the war, was such a serious blow to the iron manufacture of France")

Footnote 1: “During 1913 Germany produced nearly 36 million tons of iron ore, of which 28 million tons were minette ores of Jurassic age from Lorraine and Luxemburg. The total pig iron production was close on 18 million tons, of which between 8 and 9 million toms were furnished by these Jurassic ironstones. It is well known that it was the introduction of the basic Bessemer process that gave the impetus to the use of these low-grade phosphoric [minette] ores: in 1897 the output of iron ore in German Lorraine was only 830,000 tons.
(ii) minette (ore)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minette_(ore)
("consisting of iron ore of sedimentary origin, found in the south of Luxembourg and in Lorraine"/ its relatively poor iron content of between 28% and 34%)

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板凳
 楼主| 发表于 2-1-2015 14:40:18 | 只看该作者
本帖最后由 choi 于 2-1-2015 14:42 编辑

(3) “If a country lacked the natural resources it needed for industrialization, it had to trade for them. Manufacturing nations, such as Britain and Germany, had to sell their industrial goods abroad in order to buy the food they could no longer supply domestically due to their rapidly rising populations. (Britain’s population in the 19th century rose to 30 million from 7.7 million.) In the century between the end of the Napoleonic wars and the start of World War I, as the Industrial Revolution roared ahead, international trade jumped to 17% of world GDP from 2%. It was, argues Mr. Macdonald, the first great era of globalization.”
Department of Geography, University of Portsmouth
(a) “Britain’s population in the 19th century rose to 30 million from 7.7 million.”
(i) It is wrong. Not “Britain” but “England.” See next.
(ii) In 1801 “persons” in England and Great Britain were 8,331,434 (excluding military personnel and convicts) and 10,942,646 (also read footnote 1), respectively.
Abstract of the Answers and Returns [1801 census]. A Vision of Britain Through Time, undated
www.visionofbritain.org.uk/census/SRC_P/1/GB1801ABS_18,331,434

* Great Britain Historical GIS
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain_Historical_GIS
(The project is currently based at the University of Portsmouth, and is the provider of the website A Vision of Britain through Time)
(ii) Census of 1901; Preliminary report to the Right Honourable Walter Hume Long, MP. (May 23, 1901)
at xviii table Enumerated Population of the United Kingdom at Successive Censuses, 1821-1901 (1901: United Kingdom (41,454,578); England (30,805,466))
histpop.org/ohpr/servlet/AssociatedPageBrowser?path=Browse&active=yes&mno=73&tocstate=expandnew&display=sections&display=tables&display=pagetitles&pageseq=18&assoctitle=Census%20of%20England%20and%20Wales,%201901
(iii) The “United Kingdom” population in 1901 was "41,458,721."
Census of the British empire. 1901. Report with summary and detailed tables for the several colonies, &c, area, houses, and population; also population classified by ages, condition as to marriage, occupations, birthplaces, religions, degrees of education, and infirmities. Pprinted for His Majesty's Stationery Office by Darling & Son, Ltd (1906), at page xviii.
archive.org/details/cu31924030396067
or
books.google.com/books?id=-28_AQAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false
(b) The population growth rate of England (alone, exclusive of other regions of UK)--while possibly explained in part by immigration--is not out of place compared with later period of time. See

England Through Time; Total population.
www.visionofbritain.org.uk/unit/10061325/cube/TOT_POP
(historical change from 1801 to 2001)
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4#
 楼主| 发表于 2-1-2015 14:43:14 | 只看该作者
(4) “Globalization led, for one thing, to the race for empire, in order to secure natural resources and provide captive markets for manufactured goods. Germany, late to the party, felt that it was being denied its ‘place in the sun,’ as Kaiser Wilhelm II’s foreign minister put it, because there was little of the world left for Germany to colonize. The tremendous increase in both empire and trade also increased the importance of naval power. When Germany tried to upset Britain’s naval supremacy beginning in the 1890s, a great—and greatly expensive—naval arms race ensued. It was a race that other countries, such as France and the United States, also entered. Armies were built up as well, and by 1914, France and Germany had a total of 1.6 million men under arms.”
(a) Weltpolitik
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weltpolitik
(“The origins of the policy can be traced to a Reichstag debate on 6 December 1897 during which German Foreign Secretary Bernhard von Bulow stated, ‘In one word: We wish to throw no one into the shade, but we demand our own place in the sun’")
(b) Forces and Resources of the Combatant Nations in 1914. Encyclopaedia Britannica, undated (under the heading "World War I")
www.britannica.com/EBchecked/top ... ant-nations-in-1914
(table 2, whose heading is “Land forces of the belligerents, Aug 4, 1914” (total manpower): Germany (1,900,000), France (1,290,000); Great Britain (120,000): The higher state of discipline, training, leadership, and armament of the German army reduced the importance of the initial numerical inferiority of the armies of the Central Powers [Germany + Austria-Hungary]")

(5) “Still, many thought that globalization made war between the great powers impossible. In 1909, the British journalist Norman Angell wrote an internationally best-selling book, ‘The Great Illusion,’ that argued that financial interdependence and the great growth in credit made war self-defeating, since it would result in financial ruin for both victor and vanquished. Angell was dead wrong. (Oddly, it didn’t prevent him from winning the 1933 Nobel Peace Prize.) Extensive trade and financial relations did not stop Germany from declaring war on both Britain and Russia, its two largest trading partners, in 1914.”

Sir Norman Angell--Facts. Nobel Prize, undated
www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/ ... 3/angell-facts.html
(6) “Once Germany’s attempt at a swift victory over France failed, a war of attrition followed, one that Germany, cut off from world markets by the Royal Navy’s blockade, could not win. By 1918, Germany was melting down church bells to make munitions and its people were starving, causing the home front to collapse.”

Kiel mutiny
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiel_mutiny

(7) “The geopolitical landscape after World War I was dramatically transformed. Russia, in the grip of communism, withdrew almost completely from world markets. The United States, which was rich in natural resources and had an expansive internal market, found itself greatly strengthened by the war. But it failed to exert its new influence and maintained its traditional high tariffs. Britain, which had fostered free trade in the 19th century, established a regime of ‘imperial preference.’ France turned inward as well.”
(a) “Britain, which had fostered free trade in the 19th century, established a regime of ‘imperial preference.’”  This says Britain shifted from free trade to a sort of protectionism.
(i) Imperial preference
www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/283944/imperial-preference
(introduced in 1932; based on the principle of “home producers first, empire producers second, and foreign producers last”)
(ii) Wikipedia says, “The idea [Imperial Preference] of was associated particularly with Joseph Chamberlain.”

Joseph Chamberlain
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Chamberlain
(1836-1914; was the leading advocate of "tariff reform" (that is, imposing high tariffs in place of free trade))
(iii) Neville Chamberlain (1869- Nov 9, 1940; prime minister 1937- May 10, 1940; signed  Munich Agreement in 1938) was a son of Joseph Chamberlain.
(b) free trade
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade
(section 3 History, section 3.1 Early era)

(8) “With their vast territories and resources, these countries could afford to limit their participation in global markets. But, as Mr Macdonald explains, ‘the collapse of the world economy in 1929 and the move of Britain, America, and France towards economic nationalism revived the dissatisfactions of the have-nots.’ The have-nots included Germany, Italy and Japan, which soon moved to obtain resources by force if they could not assure them in wartime otherwise. Beginning in 1939, Germany tried to establish an empire in Eastern Europe, while Japan tried to establish one in China. When the US cut off oil supplies (essential to maintain Japan’s large navy), Japan had to either accede to American demands or take a desperate gamble. It gambled.”
(a) “The have-nots included Germany, Italy and Japan, which soon moved to obtain resources by force if they [the have-nots nations] could not assure them [resources] in wartime otherwise.”
(b) The last several words means that now that Germany and Japan have started wars to establish respective empires, these two nations felt they had no choice but to fight “Britain, America, and France” to obtain resources. “Otherwise” alludes to “peacefully,” through international trades.
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