(1) Rich Miller, How Productive Is the US?
Quote:
“Productivity is probably the most important measure of economic health that policymakers know the least about.
"Productive workers don't heat up an economy too fast because they use existing equipment and factories efficiently. If employers have only less productive workers at their disposal, they have to hire more of them to get the same amount of work done. That means higher costs for wages, which would trigger inflation and calls for an early rate hike [by the Fed].
"Productivity is driven by innovation and other forces economists can’t readily distinguish, such as changes in work practices. These murky influences, known as total factor productivity, are symptomatic of the profession’s 'ignorance,' according to the late economist Moses Abramovitz. 'It is the fundamental determinant of people's standard of living, yet we know so little about what drives it,' says Barry Bosworth, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former advisor to President Jimmy Carter.
“According to former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, economists--including those at the Fed--typically don’t have a good idea of how fast productivity will grow in the next few years. The long-term trend is ‘hugely important,’ but ‘it can takes years’ to recognize any changes
Note:
(a) summary underneath the title in print: The little-understood measure is crucial to managing the economy
(b) The BusinessWeek article is much more succinct than the one in Bloomberg:
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -weighs-higher-rate
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