陆克文:以中国崩溃论定对华政策不明智

choi

VOA Chinese, Apr 22, 2015.
www.voachinese.com/content/us-ch ... 150422/2730727.html

Note:
(a) "现为亚洲协会政策研究院院长的陆克文"

The Honorable Kevin Rudd. Asia Society Policy Institute, undated
www.asiasociety.org/policy-institute/kevin-rudd
("Mr Rudd joined the Asia Society Policy Institute [ASPI; based in both Manhattan and Washington, DC] as its inaugural President in January 2015. ASPI is a 'think-do tank' dedicated to using second-track diplomacy to assist governments and businesses in resolving policy challenges within Asia, and between Asia and the West. He is also Chair of the Independent Commission on Multilateralism where he is leading a review of the UN system over the 2015-16 period. Mr. Rudd is a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School where he completed a major policy paper US-China 21: The Future of US-China Relations Under Xi Jinping")
(b) "会讲流利中文的陆克文在担任哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院资深研究员期间专注于研究美中之间建立新的战略关系的可能性及影响，并撰写了一份报告。日前，他在华盛顿的国际战略与研究中心推出这份报告时总结了他的一些核心论点"

When I read VOA Chinese, I thought his Harvard fellowship was in the past tense. In fact, it is the present tense (starting February 2014; “the fellows stay at the Center for one or two years” per website of Belfer Center (founded in 1973)).

Kevin Rudd. Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, undated
belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/experts/3028/kevin_rudd.html
(c) Kevin Rudd, How to Break the 'Mutually Assured Misperception' Between the US and China. Huffington Post, Apr 20, 2015.
www.huffingtonpost.com/kevin-rud ... port_b_7096784.html

, which supplies a link to "summary report" of 52 Web pages.

* In other words, Kevin Rudd might have granted an interview with VOA Chinese, whose report here is not based on his presentation in a think tank.

choi

(d) Kevin Rudd, America and China Are Rivals with a Common Cause; The future of the relationship is not predetermined but for the leaders to shape, writes Kevin Rudd. Financial Times, Apr 16, 2015 (op-ed).
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3055b448-e426-11e4-9039-00144feab7de.html
belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/25261/america_and_china_are_rivals_with_a_common_cause.html
(i) "When China’s economic output eventually surpasses America’s some time in the next decade, it will be the first time since the reign of George III that the world’s largest economy belongs to a country that is not western, not English-speaking and not a liberal democratic state."
(A) George III of the United Kingdom (1738-1820; reign 1760-1820)  Wikipedia
(B) People so often overlooks China. The quotation is yet another instance. See list of regions by past GDP (PPP)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_(PPP)
(In 1920 in millions of 1990 International Dollars: China 228,600 > India 111,417 > former USSR 37,678 > UK 36,232 > France 35,468 > Germany 26,819 > 20,739 > US 12,548 > Spain 12,299)
* In 1820, US population was 9,638,453. US Census Bureau.
* Angus Maddison’s data on UK population in 1820 is as follows.

Table A-1 Population of the UK and the Irish Component 1820-1920.
www.ggdc.net/maddison/Monitoring ... les/tables_appA.pdf
(in thousands: actual UK 21,240, Population in Non-Ireland 14,156, Ireland 7,084, Southern Ireland NA)

In other words, US population in 1820 was somewhat less than half of that of UK (which included the entire Ireland).
* There was no GDP according to exchange rate--because there was no (official) exchange rate back then.
* Company rule in India
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_rule_in_India
(1757-1858 (the year of British Crown assuming direct control of India); section 1 Expansion and territory: the four maps (1765, 1805, 1837, 1857) shows East India Company never fully controlled India)

"Company rule in India effectively began in 1757 after the Battle of Plassey."  Wikipedia
* The UK GDP figure does not include that of India. That is the practice of economist Angus Maddison.
(ii) "They [Chin and US] need one to prevent the relationship deteriorating into a long and mutually costly period of rancour [American spelling: rancor], crisis, or even conflict."

(e) James Massola, Kevin Rudd Quietly Campaigning for UN Secretary-General, Says Inner Circle. Sydney Morning Herald, Apr 17, 2015
www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/ ... 0150416-1mmcfi.html
("the publication this week of 'The Future of US-China Relations Under Xi Jinping,' written by Mr Rudd during a year at Harvard University, is being seen in some diplomatic circles as part of an undeclared job application process. In an exclusive interview with Fairfax Media, Mr Rudd did not deny his interest in the job but said he took the 'utterly pragmatic' position that it was Eastern Europe's turn to take over leadership of the United Nations when Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon steps down on December 31, 2016")