China: Lands of the Setting Sun

choi

A Gary Shilling, China: Lands of the Setting Sun. Forbes, Feb 8, 2016.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/

Excerpt in the window of print: China won't shrivel up, but like Japan its importance will shrink

Quote:

"Like virtually all developing economies, China depends on exports. But with slow-growing Western economies the rate of annual export growth in China has gone from 20% to 30% in the 2000s to a recent decline of 7% last November.

"The weakness in China['s economy] has been masked by its massive housing and infrastructure investments. But even these are dubious. Witness China’s ghost cities, rampant excess capacity and the fact that total corporate, government and household debt has leaped from 121% of GDP in 2000 to 282% in 2014. Another telltale sign of trouble? GDP per capita in 2014 was just $7,590, or merely 14% of America’s.

"Consumer spending in China is just 36% of GDP. In India it’s 59%, Italy, 61%, and in the US, 69%.

"China is a giant in global manufacturing but is amateurish financially.

"China won’t shrivel up and die, but as it shifts from commodity-munching exports, housing and infrastructure to consumer spending and services, China’s global importance will shrink. This happened to Japan starting in the early 1990s.

"Just as Japan put off cleaning up its “zombie” banks, China will delay restructuring its bloated SOEs.

"You may also remember Japan’s buying spree aimed at trophy properties and at securing raw materials for its manufacturing juggernaut and markets for its output. History shows that Japan lacked growth-spurring investment opportunities at home. * * * Have you noticed that China has been on a foreign buying spree?

Note:
(a) Regarding quotation 1. Sue-Lin Wong, China November Exports Weaker Than Expected But Import Decline Eases. Reuters, Dec 8, 2015
www.reuters.com/article/us-china ... USKBN0TR07I20151208
("Exports fell a worse-than-expected 6.8 percent from a year earlier, their fifth straight month of decline, while imports tumbled 8.7 percent, their 13th drop in a row.  Imports did not slide as much as some economists had feared, but analysts were unsure if that signaled a possible improvement in soft Chinese domestic demand, which has been a key factor in driving world commodity prices to multi-year lows. * * * Analysts polled by Reuters had expected exports to fall by 5.0 percent * * * while imports had been forecast to decline 12.6 percent")
(b) Regarding quotation 2. China's GDP per Capita Rises to 7,800 US dollars. Xinhua, Nov 3, 2015
news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/03/c_134779962.htm

That is according to foreign exchange rate (not PPP) for 2015. I fail to find the 2014 figure.