本帖最后由 choi 于 4-21-2017 10:11 编辑
Self-Inflicted Wounds; The political recklessness behind Venezuela's economic catastrophe. Economist, Apr 6, 2017.
http://www.economist.com/news/fi ... age-87kg-weight-how
Note:
(a) "IT IS hard to convey the severity of Venezuela's unfolding crisis. Its extent is astounding: the economy shrank by 10% last year, and will be 23% smaller than in 2013 by the end of this year, according to IMF forecasts. Inflation may exceed 1,600% this year. * * * No war, foreign or civil, is to blame for this catastrophe. Venezuela did this to itself. * * * Fifty years ago, Venezuela was * * * not much poorer than Britain."
GDP per capita (current US$). World Bank, undated.
data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
(i) The "current US dollar" means now, 2017. Obviously according to foreign exchange rates. In the right margin, one can find
* GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) [2010 dollar, as opposed to 2017 dollar]
* GDP per capita (constant LCU) [LCU = local currency unit)
* GDP per capita (current LCU)
* GDP per capita (current US$)
* GDP per capita growth (annual %)
* GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $) [1990 - 2015 only]
* GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) [1990 - 2015 only]
* Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)
Geary–Khamis dollar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geary–Khamis_dollar
(more commonly known as the international dollar) is basically US dollar when used in PPP.
(ii) I make the following table based on figures from the above link.
Country ..........1960 ..........2015
Argentina - ...........13,714.7
Brazil - .............8,538.6
Chile ................526.4 ........13,416.2
China .................89.5 ..........8,027.7
Columbia .........245.2 ..........6,056.1
Costa Rica .......380.7 ........11,260.1
Cuba - -
Hong Kong SAR, China ...429.4 .....42,327.8
India .................83.8 ..........1,598.3
Ireland ............685.6 ........61,133.7
Israel ...........1,229.2 .........35,728.1
Japan .............479.0 .........34,523.7
Korea, Rep .....155.6 .........27,221.5
Mexico ...........342.0 ...........9,005.0
Panama ..........474.1 ........13,268.1 [economy based on service, such as banking, insurance and canal]
Philippines .....254.4 ...........2,904.2
Singapore .....427.9 .........52,888.7
Venezuela ....1,072.4 -
UK ..............1,380.3 .........43,876.0 [In 1960, UK was 46% of America's.]
US ..............3,007.1 .........56,115.7
* Neither "Taiwan, province of China" nor "Chinese Taipei" is included.
(b) "Venezuela's economy is built on oil—its leaders boast it has the world's largest proven reserves—and it is tempting to blame fickle crude prices for its woes. Oil accounts for more than 90% of Venezuelan exports.* * * Nearly everything of consequence in the economy, from toilet paper to trousers, is imported from abroad."
(c) "With oil revenues slashed by half and the government deficit soaring * * * Venezuela turned to the printing press to cover its bills. Devastatingly high inflation is further undermining the workings of the economy."
(d) "Economic dependence on oil is always fraught. Soaring oil prices place upward pressure on the exchange rate, leaving other, non-oil industries at a competitive disadvantage. That deepens an oil-exporting economy's dependence on crude [a vicious cycle], worsening the pain when [oil] prices eventually fall. * * * Saudi Arabia holds [foreign exchange] reserves worth more than $500bn * * * Norway's [sovereign wealth] fund * * * is worth nearly $900bn."
(e) Hugo "Chávez [1954–2013; president 1999-2013] had the good fortune to take office at the tail end of a two-decade swoon in oil prices [oil bust 1979-1999, per this article], and to preside over a price surge. The money that came to Chávez, he spent. From 2000 to 2013, [government] spending as a share of GDP rose from 28% to 40%"
(f) "His [Chávez's] assaults on private firms left the country short of the expertise and capital needed to develop its resources. In recent years it has produced less oil than China and a quarter of the output of Saudi Arabia. Venezuela ate its seed corn despite record harvests. Venezuela was once the envy of Latin America, until a long stagnation in living standards [the oil bust lasting two decades long] brought a populist strongman to power."
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